Scullin – Australia 2019

ALP 19.6%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Giles, since 2013.

Geography
Outer northern suburbs of Melbourne. Scullin covers southern parts of the City of Whittlesea, including the suburbs of Mill Park, Thomastown, Lalor, South Morang and Epping.

Redistribution
Scullin lost its eastern edge, with Diamond Creek, Hurstbridge, Plenty, Wattle Glen, Watsonia North and Yarrambat being shifted to Menzies. Scullin gained South Morang from McEwen and part of Bundoora from Batman. These changes increased the Labor margin from 17.3% to 19.6%.

History
Scullin has existed since the 1969 election, and in that time has always been held by the Labor Party, and specifically by the Jenkins family.

The seat was first won in 1969 by Harry Jenkins Sr, who had previously been a state Labor MP since 1961. Jenkins was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives upon the election of the Hawke government in 1983. He retired from Parliament in late 1985.

The 1986 Scullin by-election was won by Harry Jenkins Jr, son of the former MP. The younger Jenkins served as Deputy Speaker from 1993 to 2007, and he was elected Speaker in early 2008 after the election of the Rudd government. Jenkins was re-elected in 2010, stood down as Speaker in 2011, and retired in 2013.

Labor’s Andrew Giles won Scullin in 2013, and was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Scullin is a very safe Labor seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Andrew Giles Labor 54,54157.0+6.759.5
Melanie Stockman Liberal 27,26128.5-0.725.8
Rose Ljubicic Greens 7,2947.6+0.17.2
John MatlenAnimal Justice3,3873.5+3.53.3
Adriana BucciantiDrug Law Reform3,1953.3+3.32.8
Others1.4
Informal5,1645.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Andrew Giles Labor 64,36967.3+2.969.6
Melanie Stockman Liberal 31,30932.7-2.930.4

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Scullin have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 68.4% in the south-east to 81.3% in the south-west..

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-West81.318,19021.4
North72.615,85718.6
South-East68.415,86218.6
Other votes63.514,71617.3
Pre-poll62.120,55324.1

Two-party-preferred votes in Scullin at the 2016 federal election

Become a Patron!

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here