Ryan – Australia 2019

LNP 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Jane Prentice, since 2010.

Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

Redistribution
Ryan underwent minor changes, gaining parts of Dorrington and Enoggera from Brisbane, and losing Karana Downs to Blair. These changes cut the LNP margin from 9.1% to 9%.

History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won a second term in 2013, and a third term in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Jane Prentice lost party preselection, so will presumably will not run for re-election.

  • Julian Simmonds (Liberal National)

Assessment
Ryan is a safe LNP seat, although it is one of the stronger Greens seats in Queensland.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 49,40252.1+0.552.1
Stephen Hegedus Labor 21,59422.8-2.723.0
Sandra Bayley Greens 17,76718.7+4.318.8
David ToddFamily First2,3892.5+1.22.4
S GryphonLiberal Democrats2,0462.2+2.22.1
John Lawrence QuinnDemocratic Labour Party1,5661.7+1.71.6
Informal2,3182.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 55,99459.1+0.659.0
Stephen Hegedus Labor 38,77040.9-0.641.0

Booth breakdown


Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 56.5% in the Gap to 65.9% in the west. Labor won 52% in Enoggera.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 15.7% in Enoggera to 21.3% in Indooroopilly.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Indooroopilly21.359.822,57924.2
The Gap20.656.514,90216.0
Enoggera15.748.010,69111.5
West16.965.97,9038.5
Other votes17.760.819,05420.4
Pre-poll17.861.518,09419.4

Election results in Ryan at the 2016 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.