Page – Australia 2019

NAT 2.3%

Incumbent MP
Kevin Hogan, since 2013.

Geography
North coast of NSW. Page covers the towns of Lismore, Kyogle, Casino, Grafton, Nimbin, Woolgoolga and Yamba.

History
Page was first created for the 1984 election. The first member for Page was Ian Robinson (NAT), who had previously been member for Cowper since 1963. Robinson was defeated in 1990 by Harry Woods (ALP) after 27 years in federal parliament.

Woods was defeated by former state minister Ian Causley (NAT) at the 1996 election. Wood proceeded to win the by-election for Causley’s former state seat of Clarence and went on to serve as a minister in Bob Carr’s second term.

Causley served in federal Parliament for eleven years, retiring in 2007. The ALP preselected former state upper house MP and advisor to Jose Ramos Horta, Janelle Saffin, while the Nationals preselected former Mayor of Maclean Chris Gulaptis. Despite a 5.5% margin for the Nationals, the ALP won Page on a 7.8% swing.

Saffin was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Nationals candidate Kevin Hogan. Hogan was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Page is a very marginal seat. Labor has a real shot at gaining back the seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Kevin Hogan Nationals 46,32744.3-2.2
Janelle Saffin Labor 36,47134.9-1.0
Kudra Falla-Ricketts Greens 11,64911.1+2.1
Mark EllisLiberal Democrats4,1994.0+4.0
Anna Clare LudvikAnimal Justice2,9842.9+2.9
Bethany Rachael McalpineChristian Democratic Party2,9822.9+1.0
Informal4,1813.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Kevin Hogan Nationals 54,71752.3-0.8
Janelle Saffin Labor 49,89547.7+0.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Page have been split into six parts. Booths in the three main towns of Lismore, Grafton and Casino have been grouped together. Booths in Coffs Harbour council area and the remainder of Clarence Valley council area have been grouped as “South”. Booths in the remainder of the north have been split into north-east and north-west, with those around Casino grouped as north-west and those around Lismore as north-east.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four areas, ranging from 51.3% in Grafton to 55.3% in the north-west.

Labor won 52% in the north-east and 56.2% in Lismore.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 4.2% in Grafton to almost 18% in Lismore and the north-east.

Voter groupGRN prim %NAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South8.953.921,02020.1
North-East17.948.014,27313.6
Lismore17.843.811,15910.7
Grafton4.251.38,5048.1
North-West13.455.35,3015.1
Casino5.254.24,4514.3
Other votes12.453.38,6448.3
Pre-poll9.255.431,26029.9

Election results in Page at the 2016 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.