Moore – Australia 2019

LIB 11.0%

Incumbent MP
Ian Goodenough, since 2013.

Geography
Northern Perth. Moore covers suburbs along the coast on the northern fringe of Perth, including Hillarys, Sorrento, Mullaloo, Ocean Reef, Joondalup, Kinross, Kingsley and Woodvale.

History
Moore was created for the 1949 election, and has been dominated by conservative parties for most of its history. It has been held by the Country Party or Liberal Party for most of that period, although it was won by the ALP at three elections in the 1980s and was retained by a former Liberal independent in the 1990s.

Moore was first won in 1949 by the Country Party’s Hugh Leslie, a former state MP. Leslie held the seat until 1958, when he lost the seat to the Liberal Party’s Hugh Halbert. Leslie won the seat back in 1961, and retired in 1963.

Donald Maisey won the seat for the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat for the next decade, and lost in 1974 to the Liberal Party’s John Hyde. Hyde helped form ‘the Dries’ as a group of Liberal backbenchers supporting mass privatisations and deregulation, and was highly critical of the Fraser government. Hyde lost his seat in 1983.

The ALP’s Allen Blanchard won Moore in 1983, and held the seat until the 1990 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Paul Filing.

Paul Filing was re-elected in 1993, but in 1995 he lost Liberal endorsement for Moore, and he became an independent. He managed to win re-election in 1996, but he lost the seat in 1998 to Liberal candidate Mal Washer.

Washer held Moore for five terms, and retired in 2013.. Washer was succeeded in 2013 by Liberal candidate Ian Goodenough, who was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

  • Tony O’Gorman (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Moore is a safe Liberal seat.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Ian Goodenough Liberal 48,13355.0+1.0
    Tony Walker Labor 25,11828.7+2.9
    Daniel Lindley Greens 11,10012.7+2.8
    Maryka GroenewaldAustralian Christians3,1943.6+1.9
    Informal2,8913.2

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Ian Goodenough Liberal 53,41661.0-1.4
    Tony Walker Labor 34,12939.0+1.4

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58% in the north to 68.8% in the south.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.5% in the south to 12.6% in the centre.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central12.659.828,82732.9
    North12.558.024,30727.8
    South11.568.812,76014.6
    Other votes14.960.812,06513.8
    Pre-poll12.362.29,58610.9

    Election results in Moore at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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    7 COMMENTS

    1. Goodenough is a superb example of the POV that if an MLA has not progressed after 2 or 3 terms, they ought to be dis endorsed. The silence from Moore is deafening.

      Maybe i’m being unfair, if so, can someone enlighten me.

    2. Goodenough seems like a bit of an invisible MP and his endorsement in Moore seems like a waste of a safe seat, who knows maybe he is good behind the scenes performer but you don’t hear anything from or about him.

      You would think the Liberals would want to move Christian Porter to this seat seeing as they will struggle to hold Pearce at the next election.

    3. I can see Porter being parachuted into this one.

      This seat has a lot of freshly minted Labor state MPs trying to maintain big local profiles in their ultra marginal seats; perhaps that might swing things a bit? I’m not sure whether they’re great campaigners or Barry Urban types who didn’t expect to win.

      Still very tough for Labor without a stellar candidate.

    4. Malcolm
      The Liberals may have Porter recontest for the same reason they had Albanese recontest Grayndler; they think his profile might be enough to save a seat that would be a near certain loss if he vacated. The Liberals really can’t afford to lose any seats.

      If they Liberals do end up parachuting front benchers like Porter and Dutton into safer seats, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Liberal internal polls have them losing, badly.

    5. I mean, parties can look longer-term too. The seat of Moore seems a more stable and naturally Liberal seat these days, whereas Pearce is the kind of seat that will always get knocked around at redistributions. If the Libs see Porter as a long-term prospect, he’d be better off accomodated in Moore, where he’d never have to worry about whether a redistribution will take his margin out from under him.

      In the same vein, I think Shorten should swallow his pride and plump for Fraser instead of Maribyrnong, for example. Not because he’s any chance of losing his seat in 2019, just because his longer-term prospects are better in a seat with no Liberal or Green base. He’d never have a single sleepless night about holding Fraser.

    6. Porter should really be the member for Tangney, which overlaps with his former state seat of Bateman. The Liberal party waited a term too long to move the useless Jensen on.

      Goodenough appears to be another Jensen.

    7. I can only see Porter moving to this seat if he loses Pearce next election and he recontests in 2021/2022 or if Pearce is abolished by then.

      Labor ought to run a good candidate here, it will be close based off state margins and Goodenough is not a very well known MP.

      Alas I’ll predict a Liberal retain, i’d imagine Pearce and Stirling will be higher priorities for Labor.

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