Mitchell – Australia 2019

LIB 17.8%

Incumbent MP
Alex Hawke, since 2007.

Geography
North-Western Sydney. Mitchell mainly covers parts of the Hills, including Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville.

History
Mitchell was created for the 1949 election. It has almost always been won by the Liberal Party, except for two elections where the ALP won the seat, and it has become a solidly Liberal seat over recent decades.

Mitchell was won by Liberal candidate Roy Wheeler in 1949. Wheeler was re-elected at every election in the 1950s, but lost Mitchell to ALP candidate John Armitage. Armitage only managed to hold on to the seat for one term, losing it to Liberal candidate Leslie Irwin in 1963, although he later held the safe Labor seat of Chifley from 1969 to 1983.

Irwin held Mitchell from 1963 until the 1972 election, when he was swept aside with the election of the Whitlam government, with Mitchell being won by Labor candidate Alfred Ashley-Brown. Ashley-Brown lost in 1974 to Liberal candidate Alan Cadman.

Cadman held Mitchell for over thirty years without rising to much prominence in the Liberal Party, and by the mid-2000s was one of only three MPs remaining from the time of the Whitlam government, along with Prime Minister John Howard and Attorney-General Philip Ruddock. Cadman served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final years of the Fraser government and the early years of the Howard government, but didn’t rise any further.

After narrowly surviving a preselection challenge in 2004, Cadman faced a challenge in 2007 from prominent right-winger Alex Hawke, and decided to retire. Hawke easily won election in 2007, and has been re-elected three times.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Mitchell is a very safe Liberal seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Alex Hawke Liberal 55,16860.5-4.3
Andrew Punch Labor 22,44024.6+3.5
Michael Bellstedt Greens 7,2878.0+1.6
Darryl AllenChristian Democratic Party6,3036.9+3.7
Informal4,3084.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Alex Hawke Liberal 61,84767.8-3.6
Andrew Punch Labor 29,35132.2+3.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won sizeable majorities of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.2% in the south to 71% in the north.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South63.226,40329.0
North71.021,75623.9
Central68.815,89717.4
Other votes67.612,40213.6
Pre-poll70.414,74016.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Mitchell at the 2016 federal election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.