Melbourne – Australia 2019

GRN 18.5% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Adam Bandt, since 2010.

Geography
Central Melbourne. Melbourne covers the Melbourne CBD, as well as the inner city suburbs of North Melbourne, Parkville, Carlton, Docklands, Abbotsford, Fitzroy, Ascot Vale, Kensington, Richmond and East Melbourne. The seat covers all of the City of Melbourne north of the Yarra River, as well as a majority of the City of Yarra and part of Moonee Valley council area.

Redistribution
Melbourne retracted on its north-western edge and gained territory on its north-east. Ascot Vale, Flemington and Newmarket were transferred to Maribyrnong, while a small area on the border of Fitzroy and Brunswick was transferred from Wills, and a small part of Clifton Hill was transferred from Batman.

History
Melbourne is an original Federation seat, and was held by the ALP for over one hundred years before it was won by the Greens in 2010.

The seat was first won by Malcolm McEacharn, the former Mayor of Melbourne, who joined the Protectionist Party. Although McEacharn had defeated his Labor opponent William Maloney with over 60% of the vote in 1901, the 1903 election saw McEacharn only defeat Maloney by 77 votes, and the result was declared void after allegations that the result was tainted.

Maloney defeated McEacharn at the following by-election in 1904, and the ALP held Melbourne for the next century. Maloney polled over 60% at the 1906 election, and never polled less than 60% as he held the seat right through to 1940. Indeed, Maloney was elected unopposed at two elections. Maloney retired in 1940 but died before the 1940 election. He never held a frontbench role, and holds the record for the longest term of service without serving as a frontbencher.

The seat was won in 1940 by Arthur Calwell. Calwell held the seat for thirty-two years. He served as Minister for Immigration in Ben Chifley’s government from 1945 to 1949. He served as HV Evatt’s Deputy Leader from 1951 until 1960, when he became Leader of the Opposition.

Calwell led the ALP into three federal elections. The ALP was defeated by a slim margin at the 1961 election, but suffered a larger defeat in 1963 and a solid Liberal landslide in 1966. Calwell was replaced as Leader by Gough Whitlam in 1967 and Calwell retired in 1972. At no time did the seat of Melbourne come under any serious danger of being lost.

The seat was won in 1972 by Ted Innes, who held the seat until 1983.

He was succeeded by Gerry Hand, who served as a federal minister from 1987 until his retirement at the 1993 election.

The seat was won in 1993 by Lindsay Tanner. Tanner became a frontbencher following the defeat of the Labor government in 1996, and served on the Labor frontbench right until the election of the Rudd government, and served as Finance Minister in the first term of the Labor government.

The seat of Melbourne had been considered a safe Labor seat for over a century, but at the 2007 election the Greens overtook the Liberals on preferences and came second, and the two-candidate-preferred vote saw the ALP’s margin cut to 4.7%.

In 2010, Tanner retired, and his seat was won by the Greens’ Adam Bandt, who had first run for the seat in 2007. Bandt was elected with the benefit of preferences from the Liberal Party, but in 2013 managed to win a second term despite the Liberal Party preferencing Labor. Despite losing these preferences, Bandt’s margin was only cut by 0.6%, and his primary vote jumped 7%. Bandt was re-elected with a much bigger margin in 2016, with Labor falling into third place.

Candidates

Assessment
Melbourne is a solid Greens seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Adam Bandt Greens 41,37743.7+1.144.6
Le Liu Liberal 23,87825.2+2.424.8
Sophie Ismail Labor 23,13024.5-2.123.9
Lewis Freeman-HarrisonSex Party3,2653.5+1.53.5
Miranda Joyce SmithAnimal Justice1,7421.8+1.11.8
Matt RileyDrug Law Reform1,1871.3+1.31.2
Others0.1
Informal2,4042.5

2016 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Redist
Adam Bandt Greens 64,77168.568.5
Le Liu Liberal 29,80831.531.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Sophie Ismail Labor 62,96366.6-2.767.0
Le Liu Liberal 31,61633.4+2.733.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths around Kensington have been grouped as West. Fitzroy, Carlton and Abbotsford are grouped as North-East. East Melbourne and Richmond are grouped as South-East. Booths close to the Melbourne CBD are grouped as Central.

The Greens won a large majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Liberal Party) in all four areas, ranging from 62.7% in the south-east to 77.1% in the north-east.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 23.3% in the centre to 28% in the north-west.

Voter groupALP prim %GRN 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North-East23.977.119,23122.9
South-East25.662.713,51916.1
Central23.368.910,17212.1
North-West28.074.53,7724.5
Other votes24.363.516,86220.0
Pre-poll22.266.420,55024.4

Election results in Melbourne at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and Labor primary votes.


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54 COMMENTS

  1. Just looking at the senate primary results
    34.0% Greens (2016: 34.9%)
    30.9% Labor (2016: 24.8%)
    22.2% Liberal (2016 23.1%)
    1.2% Hinch (2016: 2.4%)

    Had the Labor candidate not shot himself in the foot he might well have stood a chance, does this spell a possible decline on the Green’s hold in Melbourne? Thoughts?

  2. Labor had particular appeal to left inclined Vic voters this time but suspect this post election repositioning will drive them away, still Senate vote does suggest Greens can never be absolutely sure here

  3. Joshie with results like this Greens are dependent upon Liberal Party and Liberal Party Voters remain tribal and not ideological. Tribal voters can place Greens ahead of ALP but ideologically driven Liberal voters will always place Greens below ALP.
    Only candidate I have ever put below a Greens Candidate was an ex. Uniformed NAZi.
    Majority of Liberal voters follow HTV so to be certain of being elected they need Liberals who are so hostile tribally to ALP that they will vote Green ahead of ALP.

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