Longman – Australia 2019

ALP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Susan Lamb, since 2016.

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.

Lamb was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.

Candidates

Assessment
Longman is still a marginal seat. While the by-election result suggests Lamb is likely to be re-elected, that is far from guaranteed.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 34,35939.0-5.8
Susan Lamb Labor 31,16135.4+4.7
Michelle PedersenOne Nation8,2939.4+9.4
Ian Bell Greens 3,8654.4+0.5
Will SmithFamily First3,0023.4+1.1
Frances McdonaldDrug Law Reform2,6773.0+3.0
Brad KennedyKatter’s Australian Party1,5971.8-1.0
Greg RiddellIndependent1,1111.3+1.3
Rob LawIndependent9451.1+1.1
Caleb WellsIndependent8300.9-0.1
Stephen BeckArts Party2280.3+0.3
Informal8,2178.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 44,72950.8+7.7
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 43,33949.2-7.7

2018 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 35,20339.8+4.5
Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 26,17029.6-9.4
Matthew StephenOne Nation14,06115.9+6.5
Gavin Behrens Greens 4,2644.8+0.4
Jackie PerkinsIndependent2,3792.7+2.7
Lloyd Thomas John RussellLiberal Democrats1,7622.0+2.0
Blair Ann VerrierAustralian Country Party1,3871.6+1.6
Gregory BellDemocratic Labour Party1,0431.2+1.2
James NoonanScience9701.1+1.1
Jim SaleamAustralia First Party7090.8+0.8
John ReecePeople’s Party4200.5+0.5
Informal5,7076.1

2018 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 48,11654.5+3.7
Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 40,25245.6-3.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone. Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

Labor a the won a large two-party-preferred majority of 60.8% in Caboolture-Morayfield and a smaller majority of 53.9% in Burpengary at the 2016 federal election. The LNP won majorities in the two less populous areas: 52.9% in Pumicestone and 54.2% in the west.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 7.8% in Pumicestone to 10.9% in the west.

Labor did better at the 2018 by-election, winning a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 50.9% in Pumicestone to 63.4% in Caboolture-Morayfield. The LNP won a reduced 50.9% majority in the west.

One Nation’s primary vote went up at the by-election, ranging from 13.3% in Burpengary to 19.7% in the west.

2016 booth breakdown

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield10.160.815,88118.0
Burpengary8.453.914,94217.0
Pumicestone7.847.18,96910.2
West10.945.85,3596.1
Other votes11.045.814,47916.4
Pre-poll9.048.228,43832.3

2018 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield15.663.415,69517.8
Burpengary13.359.115,39017.4
Pumicestone15.250.98,4669.6
West19.749.15,1505.8
Other votes14.849.011,33012.8
Pre-poll17.351.632,33736.6

Election results in Longman at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

Election results in Longman at the 2018 Longman by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

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65 COMMENTS

  1. Wine Diamond
    Under which section of Constitution are the withdrawal of Franking credits in Constitutional.
    My feeling is that the removal of franking credits is a political blunder by ALP but three is nothing illegal about such a withdrawal.

  2. Andrew
    i’m no lawyer. But i do have complete faith in Bowen’s arrogance , stupidity, & incompetence. I copied & pasted a post in the McMahon thread :Section 51 i believe. The point is that labor are extremely unlikely to have done due diligence. Consider this, that they had to immediately introduce a March 2018 cutoff for pensioners. What does that suggest ? This in itself could be open to a legal challenge, as it is fundamentally discriminatory.

    This whole policy is ridiculously sloppy & ill conceived. Whatever revenue is raised (& it will be far less) will be massively eclipsed by rises in pension costs, health cards etc. Just plain stupid

  3. WD
    Agree with last paragraphs completely but that does not make it unconstitutional.
    S51 is a page and a half long but S51(2) gives Commonwealth Parliament power to legislate on taxation with only restriction being that it can not vary tax for a State or part of a state. If refunding (or not refunding) franking credits were deemed to fall under no regional variation all taxpayers would have to pay rate imposed on richest tax payers and deductions for expenses
    ,family, or any other thing would also be unconstitutional. This certainly was not intention of founding fathers.
    I suggest you concentrate on th inequity of withdrawal of franking credits and not get into conspiracy theorists thought bubbles. Ask any one who says something is unconstitutional to specify the Section in Constitution which makes it unconstitutional.
    S51 does not authorise Commonwealth to give tax refunds. How about going to an election advocating an end to tax refunds.
    If this is the argument and it is revealed before the election all of ALP will go to Parliament in a clappped our Austin 7.

  4. Wine Diamond I saw the post on McMahon in which you cite S51(xxxi) as the reason for Franking credits being unconstitutional. David Waldheim has adequately refuted the claim of unconstitutionality in McMahon thread.
    Ben
    I am happy for you to remove my comment in which I mistakenly assumed WD was talking about S51(ii).

  5. Andrew
    Thanks for your customary diligence, & intellectual rigour. i think my point is that there MAY be a constitutional challenge. Whether it would be successful or not might be beside the point.

    i am glad we agree on the fundamental nature of this stupid policy. I do however strongly disagree on your assessment of the numbers affected (by it). 1.3 MILLION people + their families etc. I’d estimate 3 million + voters at least will be influenced.
    Even my Greenie, Get up EX will be given pause !!. My profoundly disabled daughter was bequeathed a small share portfolio, from WD snr, & consequently receives an annual cash refund of several $K. Labor propose to steal this from her, because she “pays no tax” . No doubt the EX will focus on far more profound inequities, as she always has, she is after all, an insufferable ideologue. However the point is that she will think twice, which is remarkable in itself !!. Others will choose more wisely !!.

  6. No sign of campaign activity on Morayfield Rd between Morayfield and Burpengary.
    Contrasts with Dickson and Petrie where ALP now active and LNP have Bill boards up.
    No sign of any candidates other than the three listed by Ben above.
    Australian Conservatives and Greens active on line but no evidence human campaigning. With 90 days to go you would think all parties would have finalised preparation and be past candidate training stage but this is not the case. Amazing how much less Longman is of interest in General Election than by election.

  7. One week after last comment . Took a drive through Longman Dickson and Western part of Petrie. Only sign that an election is taking place is large LNP truck parked just North of Traditional Funerals. No humans just the truck. No activity in Strathpine
    Or Kallangur and my better half says no activity on Anzac Av. Therefore ALP workers had a day off , burning out or did they descend on mass like vultures on Northern NSW.
    Caboolture Herald not showing much interest in Election. 1 page advert on road infrastructure spending by Federal Government clearly abuse of taxes by government and usual photo of local member Susan Lamb.
    Do local paper journalists do anything other than take advertising bookings and re-publish press releases?
    8 to 10 weeks from election they should be interviewing candidates about what they do not want to talk about.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com
    at Solar panel event

  8. Andrew – the once great local newspaper sector is nearly dead. No letters to the editor for the last 12 months in our two glossy “newspapers” in Macnamara either. They are now just junk mail and real estate ads. If real estate go further online and the paper ads disappear then the local rags will disappear too. Some political party ads but even they are fewer too. The exception is Clive Palmers UAP.

  9. Received first election material not paid for with government resources yesterday. First not delivered by commercial distributors in a long time.
    “You Desrve Better” Leaflet from Australian Conservatives.
    Bernardi is likely to be one vote higher than majors for me. I agree with most of his social policies but his economic policies are horrible. I say most of his social policies because he seems to be going to be going a bit anti- Islamic. Nothing that I disagree with but policies that are best just universally agreed with by all registered parties even Greens “Clamp down on Islamic extremism” no one disagrees with this they just disagree with what clamp down should be and what is Islamic extremism. “One rule for all Australians- no to Sharia Law” No party wants to do a Brunei and replace existing laws with Sharia law but what is in disagreement is how far Sharia Law practice should be tolerated by Australians when practiced by Islamic adherents. No party wants to make Islamic women wear the Burqa but they disagree over should Islamic women be allowed to wear Burqa and where.
    However I am glad to see some activity by Australian Conservatives but I would liked to have asked them how they are going to “Support affordable and reliable electricity”.
    No
    Mention of their candidate in Longman. Having a candidate ensures that material is letterboxed.

  10. Received a UAP pamphlet yesterday. Unlike AC pamphlet previous day Clive’s pamphlet wrapped up in roll of twenty junk mail catalogues.
    Suelllen Wrightson is Clive’s Candidate.
    No local content relating to Longman.
    Content all fits in with what will make greatest financial contribution to Clive Palmer’s pockets. End to provisional tax no doubt will appeal to all business proprietors but is this beneficial for economy as a whole in long term.
    Palmer will be above majors on my ballot paper but only just.
    His pamphlet has no info about his candidate other than her name.

  11. Andrew Jackson
    Yes. Provisional tax is an interest free loan from business to the govt. The bureaucracy resists it’s abolition because it would have a cost in bad debts to the ATO. This is however totally insignificant, when weighed against the benefits.
    Imagine if Rudd had abolished Provisional tax instead of the mad stimulus MK2 in the so called GFC . By my reckoning the country would be $400+ billion better off. Back of envelope stuff i know, but compounding growth, profit, & interest is awesome .
    At the height of “the recession we had to have” (1989?) PJK did the opposite & brought FORWARD the payments of provisional tax by 9 months !!. In order to create a measly surplus he created mass destruction. At the time we had to find $150 k in about 6 months to pay for this robbery. Then listen to PJK SKITE about HIS surplus, covered with the blood of business, & sacked workers.

    This event illustrates why Costello was a better & more successful Treasurer than the more brilliant PJK. No equivalent dark chapters, & PC acknowledges his (govts !) mistakes, ALTHOUGH PS didn’t personally make many !!.

    Sorry i didn’t have much to reply to your Capricornia post (to me)

  12. Every time I have a shower I think of the Rudd giveaway. It paid for an Australian made solar water heater on the roof. Something I could not have afforded at the time.

  13. Activity this week
    Susan Lamb and local MLA doorknocking not sure where
    LNP have a few Corflutes and truck on Morayfield Rd. Someone should tell the driver that putting truck behind a tree and angled to catch Northbound traffic makes truck near invisible for Southbound traffic.
    ALP have A frame street stalls up in Morayfield Rd this morning with two blokes caring for them.
    PHON hanging around Buchanan Park. Must be off putting to the lone male drivers who inhabit the space.
    PHON had a couple of blokes as well.
    Both majors now have negative billboards about others policy Labor on cuts to Caboolture and Liberal on Shorten’s supposed tax increases.
    No evidence of Aust Conservatives or UAP yet other than on line and Palmer’s adverts which I think are doing him more harm than good. In Reps looks like I will have to vote for Palmer as no Katter, Country Party or DLP Candidate. Unconfirmed rumours that John Reece Australian People’s Party standing but no evidence of this yet.

  14. My comment 2 April stating that Suellen Wright is UAP Candidate is inaccurate. Bailey Maher is in fact UAP Candidate.

    I was told yesterday that Palmer had been extremely thorough in vetting his candidates.
    I have been amazed at failure of 2 Major parties to not pick up S 44 problems.
    As an unpaid party volunteer I picked up problems with Citizennship and employment in
    2007 American standing for DLP
    2010 Brit standing for Katter
    2013 Taiwanese standing for Katter

    In all of these cases steps taken prior to election to remove S 44 problem.

    Steps taken in 2007 satisfied AEC but would fail current AEC checklist. Political party administrators should not get job without a thorough knowledge of Electoral law.

    Party executives have no choice but to accede to administrators on this type of issue. If DLP and Katter can get it right so can ALP and Liberal party.
    No candidate should ever be endorsed unless they have knowledge of Australian Constitution and Public Candidate forums should be used to make mincemeat of the ignorant.

    So if you are standing in Longman be prepared for me to ask questions relating to Constitution.

    One of Clive Palmer’s policies is clearly unconstitutional and Anning and Pauline Hanson sail close to wind.

  15. No significant campaigning in Longman Easter weekend although I think anti- coal development convoy will pass through on way North to capture point in Clermont 950km away.
    Un-manned Liberal truck in same place as last week.
    Some Liberal Corflutes up in East Burpengary.
    No new candidates detected.
    Looks like I will have to vote for Palmer.

    .

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