Lindsay – Australia 2019

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
Emma Husar, since 2016.

Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.

History
Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and had always been held by the party of government until 2016.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.

Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.

Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.

Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.

Bradbury was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Fiona Scott.

Scott lost her seat in 2016 to Labor’s Emma Husar.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Lindsay is a very marginal seat and the Liberal Party would love to win it back. Husar should benefit from a first-term personal vote which could solidify her position.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Emma Husar Labor 36,67541.1+2.1
Fiona Scott Liberal 35,08139.3-7.4
Kingsley Liu Greens 3,1993.6+0.5
Warren Howard WormaldChristian Democratic Party2,7013.0+0.2
Marcus CornishIndependent2,1282.4+2.4
Stephen RoddickLiberty Alliance2,1102.4+2.4
Stephen LynchNick Xenophon Team1,8502.1+2.1
Linda La BrooyFamily First1,5131.7+1.7
Scott GrimleyDerryn Hinch’s Justice Party1,4971.7+1.7
Deborah May BlundellAnimal Justice1,4541.6+1.6
Jim SaleamAustralia First1,0681.2+0.5
Informal11,91311.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Emma Husar Labor 45,63351.1+4.1
Fiona Scott Liberal 43,64348.9-4.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into central, east, north and west. North covers the rural booths including Londonderry, while East covers St Clair. West covers the booths on the other side of the Nepean River plus Mulgoa and a few other booths in between.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (54.9%) and the east (61%), while the Liberal Party won a majority in the west (54.6%) and the north (54.8%).

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central54.924,54427.5
West45.419,48521.8
North45.210,39411.6
East61.09,42610.6
Other votes49.49,68510.8
Pre-poll51.315,74217.6

Two-party-preferred votes in Lindsay at the 2016 federal election

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About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.