Lindsay – Australia 2019

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
Emma Husar, since 2016.

Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.

History
Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and had always been held by the party of government until 2016.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.

Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.

Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.

Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.

Bradbury was re-elected in 2010, but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Fiona Scott.

Scott lost her seat in 2016 to Labor’s Emma Husar.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Emma Husar is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Lindsay is a very marginal seat and the Liberal Party would love to win it back. Husar should benefit from a first-term personal vote which could solidify her position.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Emma Husar Labor 36,67541.1+2.1
Fiona Scott Liberal 35,08139.3-7.4
Kingsley Liu Greens 3,1993.6+0.5
Warren Howard WormaldChristian Democratic Party2,7013.0+0.2
Marcus CornishIndependent2,1282.4+2.4
Stephen RoddickLiberty Alliance2,1102.4+2.4
Stephen LynchNick Xenophon Team1,8502.1+2.1
Linda La BrooyFamily First1,5131.7+1.7
Scott GrimleyDerryn Hinch’s Justice Party1,4971.7+1.7
Deborah May BlundellAnimal Justice1,4541.6+1.6
Jim SaleamAustralia First1,0681.2+0.5
Informal11,91311.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Emma Husar Labor 45,63351.1+4.1
Fiona Scott Liberal 43,64348.9-4.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into central, east, north and west. North covers the rural booths including Londonderry, while East covers St Mars. West covers the booths on the other side of the Nepean River plus Mulgoa and a few other booths in between.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (54.9%) and the east (61%), while the Liberal Party won a majority in the west (54.6%) and the north (54.8%).

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central54.924,54427.5
West45.419,48521.8
North45.210,39411.6
East61.09,42610.6
Other votes49.49,68510.8
Pre-poll51.315,74217.6

Two-party-preferred votes in Lindsay at the 2016 federal election

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39 COMMENTS

  1. Labor only won this seat because a great number of things went their way
    1/ the AEC did not touch Lindsay in the redistribution
    2/ The Jackie Kelly intervention
    3/ Fiona Scott got screwed with preferences from most of the minor parties.

    A very great shame, as Scott was clearly dedicated, passionate, & capable. Unless she re-contests i expect, that this fundamentally Labor seat stays with them
    Oh did i forget to mention Emma Husar ? Funny that.

  2. Not really. Husar won because there was a swing against the Libs and Labor topped the primary vote. I doubt any of those three points made much difference at all.

    Not my state anymore, but from a distance it looks like Husar has been pretty visible for a first-termer, plus the Libs are on the nose generally. You’d expect her to hold with a small positive swing.

  3. Fundamentally Labor seat? Pshaw. This seat sits well inside the top half in the country in terms of affluence. Demographic changes, and not just financial, have moved this from a once-secure Labor area to something else, and the trend might even continue. It’s currently a natural marginal, and while Labor should hold it fairly easy, perhaps losing it against a nationwide swing in their favour would help them remember that it’s one seat out of many, many, rather than attach outsize importance to it as THE HEARTLAND!!111!!11! which it most certainly isn’t. (viz Julia Gillard’s embarrassing fawning over David Bradbury, and “The Lindsay test”.)

  4. PJ
    I haven’t seen, or heard a peep, other than the speech about growing up with domestic violence. We will disagree about my 3 points
    Where have you moved from & to ? Sounds interesting

  5. Penrith area including….Lindsay can be very loyal to a good sitting MP. …like Faye Lopo at state level. .I think Emma Hussar will entrench her self

  6. Wow Mick. Faye Lo Po. That’s about 4 generations ago!!

    Big changes since then and they don’t help the ALP.

  7. I think this one will go. This MP seems like the rest of the labour party. Close family friends of mine live in the North of the electorate and have said they haven’t heard a peep from Hussar. Makes that dill Bradbury look like a workhorse

  8. Centrist
    Husar would want to be everywhere. The demographics of this seat would not be moving toward Labor.
    Bradbury was one of those politicians to utter the immortal words “do you know who i am ?”. Well it is now worth reminding everyone !

  9. What was the huge media concern in the Gillard years about “Western Sydney”.

    Was it just about Lindsay and Greenway? Before I really got into election stats, I assumed that Western Sydney would be full of marginal seats given the coverage it got, but most of the seats seem very safe for Labor (other than the safe Liberal seats in the hills and the old semi-rural Macarthur).

    The main thing I remember is a huge media thing about her visiting Rooty Hill RSL, which is in the safe Labor seat of Chifley.

  10. I agree with WineDiamond. I think what happens with the preferences will be crucial here. From memory, every minor party candidate preference Labor above the Liberals in 2016 – is that correct? Also, the guide says “North covers the rural booths including Londonderry, while East covers St Clair”. I think you mean St Marys – St Clair is not in the electorate.

  11. Can call this as the first Liberal gain at 6PM on election night! Good to see labor sticking with this moron, hopefully the liberals put someone with a spine here, real good opportunity for a new Jackie Kelly

  12. Husar will not be the Labor candidate. That much looks certain.

    As for the Liberal candidate, it could well be the old Jackie Kelly according to the Daily Telegraph.

  13. I.N. the Know, & David Walsh

    You are dead right. Husar will not be pre selected. Who ever gets the lib guernsey will win easily. It will be absorbing to see how long labor continue to defend, & hang onto Husar. Clearly her behaviour has been appalling.

    It seems that this all started in October, & there exists a report of some 200000 words !. A turnover of 20 staff, in 4 positions, in 2 years. That is quite an achievement ! Yet she is still out there chucking massive tearys about how tough it is for her. Well it would be, might be, IF she had not abused her parliamentary privileges, & victimised her staff.

    At least De Natali paid his au pairs out of his own pocket, as opposed to putting a nanny on the Parliamentary staff payroll. Try & do that in business, & the ATO will be up you for Fringe Benefits Tax (49.5 %) + interest, + fines.

    This is a reality lost on that incomparably hypocritical, & blind fool, Mike Kelly. He was out there today defending her, & her actions, what an idiot. Kelly’s lack of insight, & judgement is just staggering.

    Apparently Labor have changed their position on Tax Deductibility of domestic employment. Long have they railed against this as a perk for the rich, or dare i say it “The Big End Of Town “!!!

    In actual fact such a policy ( IF it were NOT politicised ) would be the most immediate, & effective way of increasing productivity, & reducing unemployment. Typical labor total, rank hypocrisy, & blind stupidity.

    One can only wonder, what would happen if a male, or worse an LNP male MP was in this position ? I would suggest his office would be instantly picketed by demonstrators !. Sadly this kind of performance destroys any confidence the public have in politicians

  14. I wouldn’t have thought that Kelly would get a look in having ran as an Independent against Ayres in Penrith in the 2015 State election.

    More likely to be a political clean skin – although if the ALP run
    Husar a drovers dog could win this.

  15. Moderate
    What to do with Emma Husar ??. The ALP leadership have all rushed to defend her. I think they will regret that.
    Lindsay is now for the taking. I wonder if the Libs can stuff it up with a brawl between Fiona Scott, & Jackie Kelly ?

  16. If Husar is not pre-selected, Labor should hopefully be able to hold, but if she is pre-selected, we can write the seat off right now.

  17. Lachlan
    How much do you think Husar departing now, will help Labor ?. Look at my post back in April. What is different now ??. What about the geniuses that pre selected Husar in the first place ? Will the voters of Lindsay be willing to overlook the humiliation of having such an MP inflicted upon them ?

    This has only just begun ….

  18. I just think this is a monumental own goal from the ALP. Apparently according to all ALP staffers that I speak with this was always going to be trouble (big trouble) from Day 1. All of the leaking is internal stuff and there is a heap more to come.

    I don;t think it matters who they pick for the next election this will be a coalition gain.

  19. Moderate
    I agree 100%, & there is so much more to come.

    Husar is like some kind of poisonous “Tar baby” trapping, & infecting her colleagues. Only Albo has been smart enough to get out in front of this by saying he”had heard things weeks ago “. Helpfully (especially for Albo !) this statement, has acted as a kind of stiletto under the ribs of BS !!!. So , so beautiful !! If Albo knew, how come BS, & Tanya, & the rest of the bilious crew did not ??

    BS wants us to believe he knew nothing of all of this !!. This so wildly improbable, it’s insane. Apparently Chloe , & Emms are BFFs !

    Emms is also the record holder for Parliament ejections (22) !. Obviously she is powerfully outspoken, this would be consistent with brain snaps at staff. Did BS miss this ??

    In 2013 It took 5 months for Husar to be endorsed after being initially pre selected. Even then there were doubts.

  20. The situation surrounding Husar looks and smells like an internal factional war. My guess is that she was meant to be a placeholder candidate in 2016 and the person that was actually lined up for the seat wants to take over.

    Irrespective of how true the allegations are, the fact they’ve come out now was designed to inflict maximum damage. As shown with the Greens and Alex Bhathal (which seems like a confected beat up the more I look into it), political insiders really are that stupid and will cut off their nose to spite their own face.

    This seat is well and truly in play now, and I don’t think Labor will appreciate needing to heavily resource the seat.

  21. John
    Emma Husar is a type 8 fixation. 8s essence is shakti (sanskrit for power). No Eight would ever be a “placeholder” These people are “placemakers “. They also make their own rules, which is how she, & Barnaby have got into trouble.
    It is always a great pity when such a powerful, capable, & potentially influential person ( as Husar was so capable of being) is then exposed by the (our ?) political system.

    Unfortunately Type 8s usually do not have the control needed in our current political system. Consequently we are inflicted with droves of terribly limited Type 5 fixations, who are rarely adequate, & almost never outstanding, let alone successful

    Referring to the enneagram always adds such clarity.

  22. Husar has surfaced today. Hilariously she seems to think the dog is the problem !!. Problem solved – she has apologised to the people of Lindsay, & promised NOT to bring the dog to the office any longer !!!.

  23. don’t think this has anything to do with factions or sub factions of the alp let the inquiry complete.. then take it from there

  24. Mick Q
    I don’t buy the factional stuff either. This girl is just a force of nature, gone berserk. Type 8.s are really powerful. As i said It is a shame she could have been something.
    The inquiry is just running interference to try to cover up abuse of staff funding, com cars, etc

  25. I think Husar will be able to turn the story around in 10 months. The story seemed like one that was being tactically released to coincide with byelection losses that never came – Lindsay being “in play” makes the election more of a fight.

    Given that state level Penrith is also a marginal seat, I expect a long term campaign building the Labor brand here will keep Husar safe, especially if an incoming NSW Labor government is still having a honeymoon.

    ALP retain – I don’t think they’re at any risk of losing seats in NSW except maybe Richmond (to the Greens).

  26. Even if there was a swing to Labor in NSW this seat could bery easily be lost, the longer time goes on the news surrounding Husar will dissipate and other issues will dictate voters decsions.
    I could very well imagine that a new Labor candidate will be preselected if anything more damaging is released.

  27. We saw in Robertson in 2010, where replacing an unpopular gaffe-prone Labor MP actually helped them a great deal.

  28. Word on the ground is that this is just the tip of the iceberg. This is going to blow up into epic proportions and will be a noose around Shorten. He would want to get rid of her but can’t because she can’t afford to leave (financially speaking)

    She will more than likely become Shorten’s version of Craig Thompson to Julia Gillard.

    Expect her to stay for the duration on the cross-benches and for the Liberals to claim this as one of their few wins at the next election. Husar would stand as an independent and get smashed.

  29. John – incoming Labor state Govt!!! Please spare me, especially as the McDonald trial is in February and the additional Obeid trial)s) are set for the week before polling day!!

  30. @John, disagree completely. If there’s one state where there has been more or less the status quo, it’s NSW. In light of this, I believe the Coalition has a strong chance of picking up seats, Lindsay being target #1.

    @Moderate, agreed. Labor are not going to win the coming state election barring a miracle. I know that the credibility of seat polls have taken a bit of a beating recently but given that’s all we have to go on (other than gut instinct) until closer to the election…

    There was a poll (in July?) that had the Coalition ahead in most of the major battlegrounds – Oatley, Seven Hills, Holsworthy, Heathcote etc.

  31. Sydney property is down 5% YoY and where ever they has been falling property prices there has been big political swings, most recent Qld b/w 2010 and 2012 and WA and the NT since 2014. More recently Vic has joined the falling prices with the sharpest qtr on qtr falls.

    One thing that generally isn’t considered on this website is the overlap between electoral volatility and falling property prices, that is until you dig into people’s personal finances and discover that people have using interest only loans and appreciating property prices to compensate for low wage growth. In short, there is a direct link between appreciating property prices and a sense of financial well being.

    So in 2019 ALP will win. In seats like Lindsay already some of the newer borrowers already have negative equity i expect a big swing to the ALP. Ditto, Parramatta, Bennelong and Reid (for other big swings) as this is where big apartment prices are now also in negative equity territory and the big recent apartment developments have been. NSW will be the surprise big swing on the night……and the new political pressure point that is emerging will be negative equity. You heard it here first.

    But if it continues (and I expect it to) the ALP will be a one term government.

  32. Emma Husar is not recontesting. Presumably no matter how toxic she is the Labor party would prefer not to have a by-election.

  33. Husar has announced she’s throwing in the towel.

    Worst kept secret of the year.

    The Liberals will throw everything at this one.

  34. The Liberals will throw everything at Lindsay, and my prediction is that they will have nothing to show for it.

    Labor can’t count on a sophomore surge, but I don’t see Husar weakening their vote too much. Her not recontesting the seat takes the wind out of the news stories about her; the final result of the investigation probably won’t warrant a mention.

  35. No not certain at all. But hey, can’t hurt their chances now can it?

    My thoughts are if there is little to no swing in NSW (as current polls suggest), then the Libs have a real shot. This is the kind of shot in the arm they need in order to entertain any hope of retaining government. On the other hand, I can equally see Labor holding this fairly comfortably a la Robertson in 2010 – that would be my best guess at the moment.

    What would happen if Fiona Scott came back to contest I wonder? Blessing or a curse for the Libs?

  36. “My thoughts are if there is little to no swing in NSW (as current polls suggest), then the Libs have a real shot”

    Even better than that, compared to 2016 they are up +0.6 in NSW (-2.6 VIC, -4.7 QLD, -3.9 WA…)

    Bizarre when those 3 states have Labor premiers while NSW has a Liberal.

  37. Bizarre indeed. At best, the Libs will get a status quo vote IMO; I’d be astonished if they maintained that swing or anything like that come election day.

  38. Will be interesting to see who the Labor party parachute in, as they are having trouble finding a local candidate. Quelle surprise!

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