Hunter – Australia 2019

ALP 12.5%

Incumbent MP
Joel Fitzgibbon, since 1996.

Geography
Hunter covers inland parts of the Hunter region, including western parts of the City of Lake Macquarie, a majority of Cessnock council area, as well as the entirety of the Muswellbrook and Singleton council areas. A majority of the seat’s population lies in the Lake Macquarie council area, with the bulk of the remainder in the Cessnock area.

History
Hunter is an original Federation seat, and has been held by Labor for most of its history. The seat was first won by Prime Minister Edmund Barton in 1901. Barton resigned as Prime Minister and Member for Hunter in 1903 to take a seat on the High Court, and Hunter was won at the following election by Free Trader Frank Liddell. Liddell held the seat at the 1906 election, but lost in 1910.

The seat was won in 1910 by the ALP’s Matthew Charlton. Charlton served as the ALP’s leader from 1922 to 1928, retiring at the 1928 election. He was succeeded by Rowley James, elected as a Labor candidate. James held the seat for thirty years, although he served as a member of Jack Lang’s breakaway party from 1931 to 1936, when he was readmitted to the ALP.

James retired in 1958, and was replaced by Labor leader HV Evatt. Evatt had previously held the Sydney seat of Barton, but judged it to be too marginal and moved to the safer Hunter.

Evatt resigned as Labor leader and Member for Hunter in 1960, and the by-election was won by Bert James, son of Rowley. The younger James held Hunter for twenty years, retiring in 1980.

He was succeeded by the ALP’s Bob Brown. Brown moved to the new seat of Charlton in 1984, and was succeeded in Hunter by former Mayor of Cessnock, Eric Fitzgibbon. Fitzgibbon held the seat for twelve years before retiring in 1996.

The seat was won in 1996 by Joel Fitzgibbon, son of the previous MP. Fitzgibbon junior has held Hunter since 1996. He served as Defence Minister from 2007 to 2009, and briefly served as a minister again in 2013.

In 2016, Hunter expanded into the Lake Macquarie area to take in most of the abolished seat of Charlton, while losing rural areas to the north and west of the seat. Fitzgibbon was re-elected in the redrawn seat.

Candidates

Assessment
Hunter is a safe Labor seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Joel Fitzgibbon Labor 49,96251.8+7.1
Ruth Rogers Nationals 25,40926.3+9.7
Peter Morris Greens 6,8427.1+1.0
John HarveyIndependent4,7404.9+4.9
Richard StrettonChristian Democratic Party3,2603.4+0.8
Cordelia TroyIndependent3,2163.3+3.3
John WarhamIndependent1,9342.0+2.0
Arjay Rase MartinIndependent1,1031.1+1.1
Informal8,2497.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Joel Fitzgibbon Labor 60,25562.5+6.8
Ruth Rogers Nationals 36,21137.5-6.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six parts. A majority of the seat’s population is contained within the City of Lake Macquarie, and these areas have been split into central, north and south. The remaining booths were grouped according to local government boundaries: Cessnock, Muswellbrook and Singleton.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, ranging from 54.4% in Singleton to 72.8% in northern Lake Macquarie.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Cessnock68.113,81415.9
Lake Macquarie Central64.413,89715.9
Lake Macquarie North72.812,08913.9
Lake Macquarie South57.78,3049.5
Singleton54.46,4797.4
Muswellbrook62.24,1784.8
Other votes59.99,34910.7
Pre-poll58.528,35632.5

Two-party-preferred votes in Hunter at the 2016 federal election

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7 COMMENTS

  1. I find it very strange that this is the only safe Labour vs National, Seat. Im questioning why the Liberal vote is high in rural seat’s, Most people are not conservative in allot of these rural seats, Its much like an australian version of Alberta, They are socially conservative, But economically they tend to lean more to the left, That’s my experience anyways out in these places

  2. the Country party is very good at scaring country people….. they will burn our flag….. destroy our way of life…. make Australia like The old Soviet union etc……. but they now are seen as abandoning the conservative social values they championed also they are not independent enough from the liberals… lots of times the np is like the tail and the liberals the dog……. but now there are more and more rural independents being elected……. and they are competent. Economic rationalism is about cutting. country jobs

  3. Has anyone noticed Hunter !!??. Labor can still lose this. On old boundaries he would have. I f Fitzgibbon hadn’t got a a 7% swing last time he’d be gone. His margin snow only a couple of %, but if PHON get past the NAts he is finished.
    I just want the party hacks to be reminded of Hunter when they start offering improbable excuses. Good on the coalminers for finally giving LABOR A HUGE WELL DESERVED KICK UP THE ARSE !!.

  4. This will be an interesting count where the preference distribution exclusion points take on added importance. Can ONP collect enough CDP and UAP preferences to get past the NP?

  5. If One Nation do get this seat it will be bad that One Nation is in the House of Reps, however Joel Fitzgibbon won`t be someone I will miss. The result, which ever way it goes, signals that it could be a bad idea for the ALP to run Joel Fitzgibbon again next time, especially if he looses this time.

    While I expect there were few to no UAP HTVs distributed here, publicity around the UAP-Coalition preferences deal may be enough to keep the Nats in front of One Nation, in the 3CP count.

  6. Tom tf&b
    Mate are you for real ??. Would you seriously choose those useless idiots Conroy, & Swanston over Fitzy ??. You must be joking !!. Have you ever considered the idea that there might just be some small problem (s!) with Labor or perhaps even their POLICIES ???.

  7. Conroy is no longer in Parliament, due to retiring, so he isn`t a comparison to Fitzgibbon loosing his seat.

    I don`t know enough about Swanson to comment on her performance.

    Fitzgibbon has a history of comments suggesting their party should move rightward, I type of politician I do not agree with and do not think are good for politics.

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