Hughes – Australia 2019

LIB 9.3%

Incumbent MP
Craig Kelly, since 2010.

Geography
Hughes covers southern parts of Sydney. Most of the seat lies in the Sutherland Shire, including Menai, Bangor, Sutherland, Como, Jannali, Illawong, Barden Ridge, Engadine, Heathcote, Waterfall and Bundeena. The remainder of the seat lies at the southeastern end of the City of Liverpool, including Moorebank and Wattle Grove.

History
Hughes was first created in 1955 and has been held by the ALP for much of its history despite generally covering relatively affluent areas that would usually be thought of as more favourable to the Liberals. Its first MP was Les Johnson, who held the seat for Labor until he was defeated in the 1966 landslide by the Liberal Party’s Don Dobie. Dobie transferred to the newly created seat of Cook in 1969, and Johnson regained Hughes for the ALP, going on to serve as a minister in the Whitlam government.

Johnson resigned in December 1983, and was succeeded at a by-election by Robert Tickner, who went on to serve a high-profile tenure as Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs from 1990 until losing his seat when the Keating government lost office in 1996.

Danna Vale won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and held the seat for the next five terms.

Vale retired in 2010 and Liberal candidate Craig Kelly won the seat, increasing the Liberal margin to 5.2%. Kelly was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Hughes has long been a marginal seat but has been trending towards the Liberal Party and is reasonably safe now.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Craig Kelly Liberal 48,73452.0-3.6
Diedree Steinwall Labor 29,89531.9+2.2
Phil Smith Greens 6,9127.4+1.5
Michael CaudreChristian Democratic Party4,4904.8+2.0
Ellie RobertsonAnimal Justice3,7454.0+4.0
Informal4,3144.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Craig Kelly Liberal 55,63359.3-2.5
Diedree Steinwall Labor 38,14340.7+2.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four parts. The majority of the population is in the urban parts of Sutherland Shire, and these booths have been split into “east” (including Como, Jannali and Sutherland) and “central” (including Menai).

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.8% in the south to 66.5% in the centre.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East57.323,54825.1
Central66.518,89420.1
South55.813,53414.4
North-West56.912,83113.7
Other votes59.111,36912.1
Pre-poll58.913,60014.5

Two-party-preferred votes in Hughes at the 2016 federal election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.