Hughes – Australia 2019

LIB 9.3%

Incumbent MP
Craig Kelly, since 2010.

Geography
Hughes covers southern parts of Sydney. Most of the seat lies in the Sutherland Shire, including Menai, Bangor, Sutherland, Como, Jannali, Illawong, Barden Ridge, Engadine, Heathcote, Waterfall and Bundeena. The remainder of the seat lies at the southeastern end of the City of Liverpool, including Moorebank and Wattle Grove.

History
Hughes was first created in 1955 and has been held by the ALP for much of its history despite generally covering relatively affluent areas that would usually be thought of as more favourable to the Liberals. Its first MP was Les Johnson, who held the seat for Labor until he was defeated in the 1966 landslide by the Liberal Party’s Don Dobie. Dobie transferred to the newly created seat of Cook in 1969, and Johnson regained Hughes for the ALP, going on to serve as a minister in the Whitlam government.

Johnson resigned in December 1983, and was succeeded at a by-election by Robert Tickner, who went on to serve a high-profile tenure as Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs from 1990 until losing his seat when the Keating government lost office in 1996.

Danna Vale won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and held the seat for the next five terms.

Vale retired in 2010 and Liberal candidate Craig Kelly won the seat, increasing the Liberal margin to 5.2%. Kelly was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • Mitch Shakespeare (Greens)
  • Diedree Steinwall (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Hughes has long been a marginal seat but has been trending towards the Liberal Party and is reasonably safe now.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Craig Kelly Liberal 48,73452.0-3.6
    Diedree Steinwall Labor 29,89531.9+2.2
    Phil Smith Greens 6,9127.4+1.5
    Michael CaudreChristian Democratic Party4,4904.8+2.0
    Ellie RobertsonAnimal Justice3,7454.0+4.0
    Informal4,3144.4

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Craig Kelly Liberal 55,63359.3-2.5
    Diedree Steinwall Labor 38,14340.7+2.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four parts. The majority of the population is in the urban parts of Sutherland Shire, and these booths have been split into “east” (including Como, Jannali and Sutherland) and “central” (including Menai).

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.8% in the south to 66.5% in the centre.

    Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    East57.323,54825.1
    Central66.518,89420.1
    South55.813,53414.4
    North-West56.912,83113.7
    Other votes59.111,36912.1
    Pre-poll58.913,60014.5

    Two-party-preferred votes in Hughes at the 2016 federal election

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    24 COMMENTS

    1. Hughes has moved a lot in re distributions. It probably will again in the next one. Keeping Cunningham out of the Shire is probably untenable. If the AEC take Throsby out of the Southern Highlands (as they should), then the flow on effects will be massive.

      Interestingly Bundeena is the strongest Labor booth in Hughes. It used to be 50/ 50 when in Cook. It really is remarkable that only 20+ years ago Hughes was a solidly Labor seat, & a marginal one even less than 10 years ago.

      I see a lot of Craig Kelly on Sky. His normality is impressive. It is noticeable that he does not talk over other panellists, even when he obviously disagrees with them.

      It is hard to think of another govt backbench MP , who would have a higher profile. Kelly has an impressive focus in his opposition to intermittent, & unreliable energy.

    2. Craig Kelly’s climate change denial and general idiocy may make a few “small l”s reevaluate their vote, but many will just be happy that they’ve heard of their local MP. There was a recent poll that showed he wasn’t in any danger at all of losing his seat.

    3. Interesting exactly of demographic changes….it appears from maps that libs won every booth……..Menai is becoming more liberal and the remainder such as Engadine and Jannalli are also liberal inclined except in pro labor elections

    4. John
      Ah yes, climate change denial. I guess it is a question of whether one believes that minor changes, to less than 1/2 % of the world’s atmosphere, can change the whole world’s climate. At the exclusion of all other possible factors.

      Personally i believe that it is the height of human egocentricity, & self importance, to think we can effect the world climate. A bit like an ant climbing an elephants leg, with the intention of rape !

      We are at this time expending Trillions of $ persecuting said ant.

    5. Wine Diamond, a small Ebola virus or dose of Polonium could kill a person despite being tiny relative to the size of a body. Or, to use an analogy fitting this site, about 3000 voters in 4 marginal seats could change the direction of this country of 24 million

    6. Not a Q&A viewer, so I can’t comment on Craig Kelly’s performances there.

      But it was pretty disturbing a few weeks back to read about his praise for the Azerbaijani electoral system.

    7. John
      Your comparison is very clever however you won’t convince me.Your voting comparison is quite apt, & amusing.

      My understanding is, all plant life dies if there is less than 280 parts of carbon per million, & we currently have 400 parts per million. What is the level that becomes dangerous ? AT other times in history it has been thousands of parts per million

      In any case the carbon debate is irrelevant because the link to global climate remains unproven. There are many other influences that are far more powerful, & convincing.

    8. All of our personal political beliefs aside, Kelly is clearly outside the mainstream thinking on some pretty big issues, and outside it in a pretty aggressive way (with respect, the man’s not charming). Which makes it pretty extraordinary that’s he’s had swings toward him.

    9. PJ
      Sorry you find Kelly offensive. I’d suggest that Kelly’s popularity is based on effectively advocating the prevailing views of his constituents. IOW he represents them effectively. He’d be very out of place in an inner city electorate.
      As for mainstream thinking, we are only just starting to see the impact of wildly escalating power bills. This will certainly influence mainstream thinking greatly.

    10. @PJ true, but that hardly matters because the only question worth answering is whether Kelly reflect the views of his electorate. As a local, I can tell you he most definitely does.

      I’ve had numerous people tell me that while they’re natural ALP voters, they like Kelly because of his strong family-oriented views. Kelly works hard at local events and is always seen in the Shire part of the community; can’t speak about the Holsworthy area though.

      We also need to remember how much this area has changed. When my parents moved here in the early 80s, it was still a very much new development, first-home buyer kind of area. Nowadays, it has become quite wealthy which is a trend that is continuing.

      With all that, it’s easy to explain the good results for Kelly here.

    11. Wreathy
      It is interesting what you say. It will be borne out in his personal vote. Unfortunately we don’t have Peter Brent’s graph comparison to refer to anymore.

      Apart from Holsworthy, is there much new development in Hughes ?

    12. What’s quite surprising for me is how strongly those Liverpool booths have been for the Liberals. Even the Chipping Norton area that was transferred to Fowler voted Liberal in 2016, completely out of character with the rest of Liverpool.

    13. Winediamond,

      In terms of new housing estates? Not much anymore apart from maybe some down at Barden Ridge, though I can’t speak at the Liverpool area. However, a lot of older homes are being knocked down and rebuilt, particularly along the waterside suburbs.

      There has been a big push for low/medium-rise apartments in certain areas around Sutherland, Jannali and Kirrawee. In fact, there’s this huge monstrosity being built along the Princes Highway; it’s over 800 units!

    14. Mark Mulcair
      It would seem that the people living in those riverside suburbs, are quite different. They just happen to be placed in Liverpool council.

      I expect Chipping Norton will be returned to Hughes at the next redistribution. That will mess up one of the AECs straight line boundaries ! Maybe Casula too, as you have previously suggested !

    15. There certainly has been a shift towards the Coalition in the riverside suburbs on the north side of the Georges River in the Bankstown/St George area, I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar is going on in Liverpool and Sutherland (and Canada Bay too).

    16. Wreathy
      Interesting that development is patchy. It will be noticeable if there is fundamental change like the Princes Highway project you mentioned.

    17. Rumblings of a preselection challenge to Kelly from the former SS Mayor, Kent Johns. Talk of it being sewn up already which wouldn’t surprise me considering the local branches are stacked with moderates.

      Regardless, it certainly won’t affect the outcome of the seat, but I’d wager a larger swing than would otherwise have occurred.

    18. Dont rule out this falling in future, Especially if Labor does well nationwide, Watch this seat when Kelly retires

    19. Daniel
      No way on these boundaries. The seat would need to move heaps to the west/ Liverpool, & away from the shire.

    20. I used to think that there were no MPs that would be saved by Scott Morrison becoming MP, but I think Craig Kelly may be thankful for parochialism in the Shire come election day.

    21. starting point Kelly rolled in a preselection then more likely a change later on with a good alp candida5e

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