Greenway – Australia 2019

ALP 6.3%

Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.

Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Girraween, The Ponds and Riverstone, and parts of Toongabbie and Pendle Hill.

History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.

Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.

The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.

The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.

Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010, and was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • Damien Atkins (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Greenway became safer for Labor at the 2016 election, but it could still be vulnerable to the Liberal Party when the party is stronger.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Michelle Rowland Labor 43,72249.1+4.6
    Yvonne Keane Liberal 30,65734.4-5.6
    Aaron WrightChristian Democratic Party4,4845.0+1.3
    Chris Winslow Greens 3,3513.8+0.1
    Timothy MakLiberal Democrats2,9233.3+3.3
    Avtar Singh BilluIndependent1,7492.0+2.0
    Rohan SalinsFamily First1,2731.4+1.4
    Vivek SinghaScience Party9241.0+1.0
    Informal7,2827.6

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Michelle Rowland Labor 50,16356.3+3.3
    Yvonne Keane Liberal 38,92043.7-3.3

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas south of the railway line have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.3% in the north to 63.1% in the south.

    Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    North52.332,96937.0
    South63.116,88519.0
    Central56.314,44116.2
    Other votes53.79,93311.2
    Pre-poll59.214,85516.7

    Two-party-preferred votes in Greenway at the 2016 federal election

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    6 COMMENTS

    1. How much more of a swing can Rowland get? This isn’t exactly a rock-solid Labor seat, although the party should win nationwide…

    2. Is this one of the seats the Liberals could win back?

      It seems like Rowland got very lucky twice, and the electorate is a “No” voting electorate (if you want to run with the theory that this could be translated into conservative votes), but she has plenty of breathing space with her 2016 margin.

    3. @John – I doubt the Liberals will get this back, especially as the only election they held it when Labor won nationally (2007), it covered parts of Hawkesbury council. As a hardcore Liberal voter (very much a dry than a Turnbull-esque wet), I will say they could have picked a better candidate in 2013…

      Anyway, Labor should hold this until one of the following happens:

      1. Rowland retires, and it’s not a big Labor victory.
      2. The Liberals win big nationwide again.

    4. The only time the Liberal party won Greenway on these boundaries was with a retiring Labor member, a nasty letterbox campaign, and with Mark Latham as Labor leader. And even then just barely.

    5. For 2016, they picked the candidate that they should have picked in 2013 in Yvonne Keane. There was a genuinely good candidate who would have won Greenway in 2013 and then benefited from the sophomore surge in 2016.

      Rowland is entrenched in the seat as long as she wants it.

    6. I’ve been living in Stanhope Gardens for around a year. It seems that the north and south of Greenway are quite distinct. In contrast, it feels a little odd to consider that when crossing Old Windsor Road into Kellyville in my daily commute, I am actually leaving Blacktown and entering The Hills. In the south, there is a very steep difference in SES between these two LGAs. But their northern halves seem to have more in common with each other than the rest of their respective LGA.

      Given the rapid population growth in the region, I assume Greenway and its neighbours will require significant rebalancing at the next redistribution. Is an east-west aligned Greenway lying to the north of Chifley and Mitchell a likely prospect?

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