Gilmore – Australia 2019

LIB 0.7%

Incumbent MP
Ann Sudmalis, since 2013.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.

History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.

Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.

Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.

In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Gilmore is an extremely marginal seat, and could go either way.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ann Sudmalis Liberal 46,71345.3-2.2
Fiona Phillips Labor 40,47639.2+5.0
Carmel Mary Mccallum Greens 10,82010.5+1.4
Steve RyanChristian Democratic Party5,1605.0+2.2
Informal4,4424.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ann Sudmalis Liberal 52,33650.7-3.1
Fiona Phillips Labor 50,83349.3+3.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.

The Liberal Party won a majority in Gilmore, but only managed a majority in one of five areas in the election-day vote, winning 50.5% in Kiama. Labor won a majority ranging from 50.3% in Ulladulla to 54.4% in Jervis Bay. Sudmalis won thanks to large wins in the pre-poll (53.4%) and postal (57.3%) vote.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.3% in Jervis Bay to 14.7% in Kiama.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Nowra9.749.418,90518.3
Batemans Bay11.248.611,84711.5
Jervis Bay9.345.611,36411.0
Kiama14.750.58,8378.6
Ulladulla11.049.77,6337.4
Other votes11.453.410,40810.1
Pre-poll9.653.434,17533.1

Election results in Gilmore at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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105 COMMENTS

  1. Yappo
    The numbers don’t even come close to adding up here. If the Greens have gone backwards 30% game over

  2. Does anyone know where the independent(and disendorsed Lib candidate) Schultz is directing preferences?

  3. @boatswain1025

    If Lib PB is down 19.3 and Nats are polling 17pc, that only leaves 2.3pc to move from Libs to Schultz…

  4. I may have been wrong about the national winner but i was right about this seat. Mundine was likely not the best pick for this seat. I reckon if they kept their original candidate they would have won it.

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