Gilmore – Australia 2019

LIB 0.7%

Incumbent MP
Ann Sudmalis, since 2013.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.

History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.

Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.

Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.

In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Gilmore is an extremely marginal seat, and could go either way.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ann Sudmalis Liberal 46,71345.3-2.2
Fiona Phillips Labor 40,47639.2+5.0
Carmel Mary Mccallum Greens 10,82010.5+1.4
Steve RyanChristian Democratic Party5,1605.0+2.2
Informal4,4424.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ann Sudmalis Liberal 52,33650.7-3.1
Fiona Phillips Labor 50,83349.3+3.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.

The Liberal Party won a majority in Gilmore, but only managed a majority in one of five areas in the election-day vote, winning 50.5% in Kiama. Labor won a majority ranging from 50.3% in Ulladulla to 54.4% in Jervis Bay. Sudmalis won thanks to large wins in the pre-poll (53.4%) and postal (57.3%) vote.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.3% in Jervis Bay to 14.7% in Kiama.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Nowra9.749.418,90518.3
Batemans Bay11.248.611,84711.5
Jervis Bay9.345.611,36411.0
Kiama14.750.58,8378.6
Ulladulla11.049.77,6337.4
Other votes11.453.410,40810.1
Pre-poll9.653.434,17533.1

Election results in Gilmore at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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105 COMMENTS

  1. PJ
    I read this disingenuous & entirely misleading piece of propaganda. If you can’t see the blatant flaws, & highly selective methodology, then you really are not up to it intellectually. I will not bother to debate such absurdity.

  2. some guy
    Yeah mate your opinion is so, so much more important than the reality over a million Australians face. Good call. Good on you.

  3. Unlike yours clearly WD.

    It’s clearly upper class welfare – a perverse type of retiree pension funded by working people that actually increases the wealthier you are.

    I would have thought given WD’s previous sentiments about small government and reducing unnecessary taxes that he would support ending such a clear misdirection of taxpayer dollars to the wealthy. I await any reasoned response why we should remain the only country on earth to continue giving cash payments to retirees with millions in the bank.

    But getting back to Gilmore, as ending this tax rort only affects wealthy retirees, I don’t expect the Libs to run their scare campaign here as successfully as, say, Goldstein or Wentworth.

  4. PJ
    i really do appreciate your willingness to further engage. So i withdraw my crack about “being intellectually up to it”. However there is not much point in debating such blatant untruths, & conflations contained in the ridiculous propaganda, & nonsense, put out by the GRATTAN iNSTITUTE.

    All of your assertions about Superannuation are factually incorrect, except in the most incredibly selective, micro visioned sense. The percentage of superannnuants with a balance of $1.6 million is less than 1% & they will be unaffected. So the policy will affect people with mostly very modest incomes. This policy was so inept, & ill conceived, that immediately it was modified to excempt pensioners pre March 2018. Bugger the rest !!. Obviously yet another 2 tiered system is a wasteful bureaucratic nightmare.

    If this was such a fabulous idea why have the Centre Alliance Senators crushed it today ?. Bear in mind that cash refunds have had bi partisan support for 20 years. That is how they were introduced in the first place.
    Not only would this policy force more retirees onto the pension, thus more than annihilating any fiscal benefit, but it further undermines the viability of the whole superannuation system.

    I went to a lecture on Tuesday night with Paul Kelly , & Judith Sloane & asked about this. Judith said she had directly asked Bowen about it. His response was to shrug his shoulders. She said that this ( & all previous interactions) indicates that Labor have no interest in RETIREES, Superannuation, or future Pension costs. Of course other than Union controlled Industry funds.
    So cash refunds are anything but”upper class welfare”. Your crack about “retirees with millions in the bank” is just too silly. Gilmore will be ground zero for this stupid policy, NEARLY 9000 RETIREES AFFECTED & counting. You may find a few with balances of 1.6 million, but they are not the people worried. Bear in mind that retirees have families.

    I trust you will find this a fair, & reasonable response
    cheers wd

  5. The Sportsbet odds at the moment are $1.18 for Labor and $5.50 for Liberal, so it may be that any concept of a retiree reaction to Labor’s tax policies may be a little incidental to the main game. I wonder how accurate the betting market is in predicting electoral outcomes.

  6. The labor could not give a toss if you used to contribute, you might as well be dead as far as they care. Funny how they will give unions, who don’t pay tax, franking credits, what does that tell you, they are looking after themselves. FYI PJ, The piece is not absurd as you put it, it is factual, i suspect your refusal to acknowledge is because you don’t want to believe. For me the franking credits are incidental, I don’t have enough to invest to live off FC’s, and I certainly will not be investing in Australia if Shorten becomes PM, as this will stagnate investment, drop the dollar to 60cents, lower credit rating which in turn will increase borrowing costs, so mortgages, imports and general standard of living and jobs will drop.

  7. I think the spanner in the works is Katrina Hodgkinson running in this seat. A pretty impressive NSW Minister, she might do enough to stifle Grant Schultz.

    This could be a genuine 4-cornered race.

  8. I seriously don’t understand everyone here that’s saying Liberal hold, I think a Nationals victory is more likely than that, You do realise Mundine was a former ALP president? That WILL piss off traditional Liberal voters, They may switch to National, Because there will be a good portion of Liberal voters that will not want to vote for someone with strong Labor roots. If this ends up being Liberal vs Labor, This will be a relatively easy labor gain, But a Nationals vs Labor will make things interesting as there is a good Nationals candidate and the Nationals would more likely win due to the Independents preferences likely going to the Nationals, Since he was dumped as liberal candidate. I think lbor will win nevertheless, But if the Coalition hold this i think it will be a National seat until the member retires or messes up, (since the coalition agreement would forbid the Liberals from running against her in 2022) Even Sudmalis isnt throwingnher support behind Mundine, She says she would back anyone that will prevent a Shorten goverment, Mundine seriously hurts them rather than help the Liberals, Liberal supporters are seriously mistaken. Labor hold if vs Liberls, but knife edge if Nationals vs Labor.

  9. The issue with that is the Nationals are not a big thing here. I agree Daniel that the Mundine parachute has annoyed ALOT of Liberals (as a resident here you can tell with traditional Liberal party households putting up National yard signs) – but at the end of the day the Nationals are relatively non-existent until the Gash faction got dumped from the Liberal Gilmore FEC last year.. then she’s encouraged the Nationals to run. There are some areas of the electorate which may respond to a Nationals candidate but others won’t. For example in the Kiama area it’ll clearly be a Lib v ALP 2PP. Possibly some NAT v ALP in other areas such as Nowra (maybe?) but the only issue for Phillips is if her primary vote drops below 39%. If she maintains that primary vote or improves it slightly – then she’s in.

  10. Gash and Sudmalis have both endorsed Hodkinson. Will be watching this seat closely on election night. Expect Philips to win but a true three corner race plus Schultz could put up a surprise…

    Pollster

  11. Former MP John Sharp has also endorsed Hodgkinson. She is running one of the better electorate campaigns in the country.
    Also hearing the Nat candidate next door in Eden-Monaro doing a good job.

  12. I know ‘internal polling’ is always unreliable to believe in, but I read recently that labor has said their internal polling has them ‘ahead’ in this seat, which I think is likely given the small margin and a likely splitting of the conservative vote.

    If the Nats, Libs and Schultz all split the traditional coalition vote 3 ways, than I imagine even a small leakage of preferences to labor may help them over the line in such a close contest. Obviously that relies on former labor voters not switching to the above candidates in significant numbers, which I don’t think will happen given the polling at best for the LNP has only a small statewide swing to labor in NSW currently.

    That said, ALP gain by maybe a ~2% margin

  13. fiona phillips will be the fifth mp for gilmore & the 2nd non lnp coalition mp to do so since peter knott back in 1996. i want katrina hodgkinson over warren mundine behind her on two candidate prefrences.

  14. Labor will get over the line with Greens preferences.Don’t forget they polled 10% at the last election and I expect them to do the same this time around.If Fiona maintains her 39% primary she will win.

  15. Timefor a change
    I find your proposition entirely unlikely, even improbable. McCallum outperformed in 2016. ACCORDING TO Newspoll the greens are polling 9% nationally. Their vote is concentrated in VIC 33%. The numbers would suggest a fall in the green vote here, & elsewhere in NSW. There is no indication of a swing against the govt in NSW.

  16. Sportsbet as of 10/5 is $1.15 ALP, $5 Libs, $8 Nats, $12 Greens… $21 Independent.

    This is hilarious

  17. @ Gilmore, apparently who is saying this? I’m a Labor voter but I’m struggling to find enough seats for Labor to govern outright. In this age of powerful Sky News and Trump effect, that being people voting on issue or them being against PC, I fail to see how Labor wins this seat off a Sky News commentator. The fact that Labor is loin g Lindsay, a typical Bellwether, says to me Labor aren’t going anywhere near as well as we think, this seat included. Hope I’m wrong.

  18. I can honestly see Labor winning, albeit nowhere near as comfortably as some are saying. I think they’ll probably get somewhere between 76-80 seats.

    The real trouble for the Coalition is I can’t realistically see them winning a majority. Even if they do very well and pick up 5 seats, there’s simply too many losses to offset. Therefore, I only see 3 ways for a Coalition win:

    1. A general polling error in their favour. (Perhaps a shy Tory factor or something similar)

    2. A late surge in support. (Morrison really needs to have a breakout week; he can’t afford to bobble along and hope for the best. Either that, or Shorten commits some kind of stupid mistake)

    3. An exceptional lucky draw. (Holding onto most of the marginals while winning a good deal of their target seats. They’d have to pull off some pretty unexpected holds/gains here like in Corangamite or Chisholm.

  19. Feel The Bern – this is how Labor gets victory:
    1. Forde
    2. Gilmore
    3. Flynn
    4. Robertson
    5. Banks
    6 Petrie
    7. Husluck
    8. Swan
    9. CHilsolm
    10. La TRobe
    11. Reid
    12. Deakin
    13. Capricornia
    14 DIckson
    15 Dawson

    This also includes Corangamite and Dunkely.

    Losses
    1. Herbert
    2. Lindsay

  20. James
    To win outright Labor needs to get to 77 seats, but could probably govern with 76 (Bandt) or even 75 (bandt plus an independent as speaker.

    So this means they need to gain 8 seats or maybe 6 but not ideal

    First losses Herbert and Lindsay so they need 10 or just 8 at a stretch.

    Dunkley yep, Forde yep, Gilmore yep, Robertson, Banks, petrie swan,corangamite chisolm probably but let us say they get 4/6, this gives them just 7.

    Then the ones that i feel are less likely: Bonner Hasluck, Latrobe, Reid, Deakin, Dickson, let us say 2/6 to give the ALP 9 wins

    Then the unlikely (ALP or Green) Pearce, Sturt, Higgins, Kooyong,Bonner, Brisbane, Page, Ryan, Reid, capricornia, Dawson. let us say they get one of this lot then the ALp is on 10.

    There is of course the chance of losses in longman, Bass, Braddon,Eden Monaro, McNamara – Let us say they lose 2/5.
    ALP has a net gain of 7 seats ie they have 76/151. This is enough to run government albeit of a knife edge.

  21. @James

    You’ve forgotten that Labor also has a brand-new safe seat in Victoria called Fraser (actually, a ton of people seem to forget about Fraser) – which didn’t exist at the last election. If everything you’ve listed happens, Labor will net gain 16 seats, giving them 85 total. I don’t think they’ll get that many.

    But I am fairly confident they’ll get to 76 at least.

  22. My thoughts on the above list.

    1. Forde – line ball but I would say Labor just
    2. Gilmore – i think Nats and Schulz preference leakage will give this to Labor
    3. Flynn – Adani to save the LNP
    4. Robertson – Hmmm Labor but not confident
    5. Banks – Liberal hold
    6 Petrie – lineball but LNP hold
    7. Hasluck – Labor win
    8. Swan – lineball Labor
    9. CHilsolm – Labor win
    10. La TRobe – Labor win
    11. Reid – Liberal hold
    12. Deakin – Liberal hold
    13. Capricornia – quality MP plus Adani LNP hold
    14 DIckson – it’s gone quiet here for reason LNP hold.
    15 Dawson – adani should save LNP but Katter vote is an extra spanner here.

    I also hear no doubts about Bonner or Page. Both hold.

    So 7 Labor gains total. Cowper and Farrer go Independent so thats 9 Coalition losses. Counter that with Indi, Wentworth and Mayo coming back off independents. Lindsay, Braddon, Soloman and Herbert off Labor. Plus 1 or 2 of Longman, Bass, Lingari…

    That’s just today’s observation.. lots can change by Friday.

  23. Hi Queensland Observer,
    Your commentary doesn’t mention Dunkley – a seat I would pencil in as a lock Labor gain.
    This list also needs to be expanded to include a raft of traditionally safe Lib seats in metro Melbourne that are teetering: Flinders, Higgins and Kooyong.
    These are shaping as the most exciting contests of the election mainly because of the sharp collapse of the Liberal primary and the prominence of the incumbents.
    I cannot see how Greg Hunt can hang on in Flinders. Several environmental issues playing out big in the electorate. With the independent Julia Banks, Greens candidate and inexperienced Labor candidate preferencing each other my tip is Banks will finish second and take the seat. Hunt’s primary came in at 51% in 2016 and is likely to fall at least 5 per cent because of his active involvement in tearing down Turnbull.
    If you believe a Greens-commissioned poll published by the Guardian on 13 May, the Lib vote in Higgins has collapsed to 36 per cent. I just can’t fathom that it could slide that far, but even if the Lib candidate’s primary comes in at 45%, the seat would still fall to either Ball(Greens) or McLoud(ALP).
    Friends who live in the hallowed seat of Kooyong say a big swing to Julian Burnside QC(Greens) has Josh Frydenberg under extreme pressure. However, the overall feeling is that Josh will hang on. Burnside’s primary, according to a recent poll commissioned by the Greens, is only at 21 per cent – although preference flows are certain to break heavily for him. It still won’t be enough to get him over the line. If Burnside’s primary breaches 25%, Josh’s prospects would be looking grim.

  24. Um, I think the call you’ve made on Mayo returning to the Coalition fold is rather optimistic.

  25. Expat

    Yes i forgot Fraser.

    I expect labor to have 77 seats – enough to govern.

    Qld observer. I agree that Flynn, Hasluck. Capricornia and Dawson will be harder to win than suggested by the simple pendulum. Petrie and Dickson will move together.

    You are way too optimistic about Mayo but not sure about Wentworth. Indi is probably a return. A bit optimistic re Solomon and Braddon too – although there is a chance they could swing.

  26. My prediction at this stage:

    PROBABLE ALP GAINS (4)
    Forde, Gilmore, Dickson, Chisholm

    TOSSUP ALP GAINS (4)
    Petrie, Hasluck, La Trobe, Swan

    ———————————> So using Antony Green’s calculations (which start Labor on 72), Labor gain 8 seats to put them on 80.

    PROBABLE ALP HOLDS (7)
    Cowan, Longman, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Bass, Solomon, Lingiari

    TOSSUP ALP HOLDS (1)
    Corangamite

    ———————————> Assuming talk of LNP gains in the above seats (however minor that talk may be) fail to materialise, Labor stay on 80.

    TOSSUP ALP LOSSES (3)
    Herbert, Lindsay, Braddon

    ———————————> I think the seats above will fall to the LNP, putting Labor on 77. Enough to form government.

    As for the Coalition:

    PROBABLE LNP HOLDS (11)
    Page, Boothby, Casey, Dawson, Sturt, Brisbane, Stirling, Deakin, Canning, Higgins, Kooyong

    TOSSUP LNP HOLDS (11)
    Capricornia, Flynn, Robertson, Banks, Bonner, Pearce, Leichhardt, Reid, Flinders, Warringah, Farrer

    ———————————> I think the LNP should hold these seats against independents/Labor. Counting Labor’s gains above (8) MINUS Labor’s losses (3), this puts the LNP on 68.

    OTHER LNP GAINS (2)
    Wentworth, Indi

    OTHER LNP LOSSES (1)
    Cowper

    ———————————> Finally, with 2 gains and 1 loss, the LNP finish on 69.

    NB: My categories merely denote *confidence*. They are not a definitive declaration. I’m certain there will be seats in the probable category that Labor win and vice versa.

  27. QLD Observer
    You are a mischievous lad. Your proposition of “Preference leakage” is an interesting one. Particularly in “3 Cornered contests” such as this one, E-M, Indi etc. I’d have assumed that having a field of opponents would disadvantage Phillips by diluting her primary, & feeding preferences away (from her ). Like wise in the other examples. Clearly you see it differently. With CPV what am i missing ?

  28. I probably should clarify.

    I am counting Corangmite and Dunkley as Labor due to redistribution margins. Dunkley is gone, while some people tell me Corangmite might stay Liberal, but I have it as Labor.

    Out of the Indy seats Mayo is the one I am least confident of. In fact if I wrote it this morning it would be in my maybe pile instead. Mind you by calling Cowper and Farrer the other way it balances out. Aka I think its likely two of Wentworth, Mayo, Farrer and Cowper ate in Indy hands, but all four or none of them wouldn’t surprise me.

    On Flinders, Higgins and Kooyong. Well big swings due to the three or four way contests. I still think they hold. Higgins is the one I am least confident about.

  29. W OF S
    Thanks for providing me with the opportunity of plagiarising your excellent format !!.

    My prediction at this stage:

    PROBABLE ALP GAINS
    Forde, Corangmite, La Trobe, Chisholm, Hasluck

    TOSSUP ALP GAINS (1)
    Swan

    ———————————> So using Antony Green’s calculations (which start Labor on 72), Labor gain 6 seats to put them on 78

    PROBABLE ALP HOLDS (4)
    Cowan, , Macquarie, , Lingiari, Griffith,

    TOSSUP ALP HOLDS (2)
    , Bass, Longman

    ———————————> Assuming talk of LNP gains in the above seats (however minor that talk may be) fail to materialise, Labor stay on 73

    TOSSUP ALP LOSSES (5)
    Herbert, Lindsay, Braddon, Solomon, E-M

    ———————————> I think the seats above will fall to the LNP, putting Labor on 73. NOT Enough to form government.

    As for the Coalition:

    PROBABLE LNP HOLDS (12)
    Page, Boothby, Casey, Dawson, Sturt, Brisbane, Stirling, Deakin, Canning, Higgins, Kooyong Petrie

    TOSSUP LNP HOLDS (14)
    Capricornia, Flynn, Robertson, Banks, Bonner, Pearce, Leichhardt, Reid, Flinders, Warringah, Gilmore, Dickson.
    Cowper, Farrer.

    ———————————> I think the LNP should hold these seats against independents/Labor. Counting Labor’s gains above (6) MINUS Labor’s losses (5), this puts the LNP on 74.

    OTHER LNP GAINS (2)
    Wentworth, Indi

    This would lead to A lABOR govt with Bandt, Sharkey, Wilkie, & another ???
    Id expect at least 3-4 wrong calls, so the best result for ALP BEING 77 SEATS, OR visa a versa.However the outcome is far more certain than the exact numbers. Somewhat paradoxical. It is really ver reminiscent of 2010. MY fundamental view is that by Saturday it will be 50-50, as momentum has been insipidly favouring the Coalition.

  30. I seriously doubt in the face of a national swing to labor currently of about 2% and a LNP PV in the ~38 range according to pollsters they will end only losing net 1 seat WD. The chance of that happening seems astronomically low to me.

    There was a 3.5% swing on PV last election away from the LNP and they lost 14 seats. I can’t see how they only lose net 1 seat if the polls are accurate and there is a 4% swing away from the LNP on the PV.

  31. Because Boatswain there is a swing to the LNP happening right now in NSW. Presently it is tracked on pollbludger at 1.5% from the 2016 election. This is the reason Lindsay (and increasingly Dobell/Macquarie) are in play.

  32. Boaty 1025
    I believe i gave an adequate reasoning for my view. Fundamentally i don’t agree with you about a 2% swing & PV OF 38, (BY Saturday) I SEE 40 & no overall swing but some relatively large provincial swings. I’d remind you that i didn’t commit to 1 seat, actually 6 – 5 or 1+ up to 5. That is having already “banked” 3 seats FFS !!. Even so it was merely a means to arriving at a predictive outcome. Still a few days to go.
    cheers WD

  33. I agree with your observation, Boatswain1025. Your argument likely applies especially in Victoria and WA, where the 2PP swing is likely to be greater than other parts of Australia. I would like to hear the rationale that leads some to think that Gilmore is likely to be retained for coalition.

  34. Moderate and WD, thought I’d chuck in what I think for what it’s worth.

    Even with a small or no swing in NSW, seats like Reid, Gilmore and Robertson seem to be in play for labor based on Shorten and Morrison’s movements. The LNP may pick up Lindsay (may) and Wentworth, but they are at risk in the aforementioned 3 seats, plus Warringah, Farrer and Cowper. Page and Banks certainly seem to be flying under the radar, but I certainly wouldn’t be counting on them if I was the ALP.

    Regardless, even if there is little overall gain for the ALP in NSW, the ALP will likely make up for that with multiple seats in play in Victoria and Qld, 3-4 seats in WA, plus Boothby all possible for the ALP. What’s realistic for the LNP? Herbert, Lindsay, Wentworth and Indi for me. Maybe Northern Tassie or solomon, but they are fighting the sophomore effect in most of these seats and just a general trend against the LNP. Overall I think the chance they pick up enough of the above without losing many of those seats in the ALP’s sights, in the context of a current 2% national swing to the ALP and a LNP PV in the high 30s (I doubt the polls will move much to the LNP WD), is very unlikely to me.

    Overall I think labor will win with 80-85 seats, Coalition will probably be in the mid to low 60s adding on losing some safe seats to independents. We’ll see whose right on the night lads, only a few days to go to find out.

  35. Numbermuncher
    Did you see my post to QO, & the question i posed to him ??. I for one posted extensively on Gilmore earlier . BTW I am truly happy for you, that you are so confident of predicting ANYTHING about WA. sSuch boldness & courage is inspirational, & breathtaking !!. Most political commentators try to overlook WA, or restrict their comments as far as possible !!. Is this an accident !!??

  36. Moderate
    Id agree with Macquarie, but not Dobell Things would be different if the AEC had done the right thing & put another 6000 voters into Shortland. Oh well 10000 by the next redistribution.
    What about E-M ? How do you see the Indi contests ?

  37. Boaty 1025
    You are pretty much with Richo who is predicting 80 seats, but slightly more enthusiastic, or maybe Richo has more doubts ?. Having huge respect for Richo i’m hardly likely to invalidate your POV. In truth this thing is so very tight anything could happen.

    I’ll indulge myself with a couple of gut feel opinions about where you are dead wrong !!.
    1/ Boothby is safe
    2/ Labor will not get more than 3 seats in WA
    3/ You seem to be expecting a lot from QLD, & QLD has a very long tradition of disappointing Labor supporters

    Disappointingly i feel unable to fully contest much more, as your position is reasonable, & cogent. However this whole subject is very provocative, & i suspect (prediction) leaves us all feeling tentative, & uneasy !!.
    Enjoy
    cheers WD

  38. Certainly agree in principle that both WA and QLD tend to firm for LNP as the election gets closer, however both leaders have been in Perth this week and there’s a few seats on precariously low margins for the LNP. I also just have a gut feeling that SE QLD will swing, perhaps we’ll even see a similar scenario to the state election where SE QLD swings and the LNP suffers in regional areas due to their PV collapsing due to ON.

    Anyways as you say all conjecture at this point, looking forward to Saturday to see how we go with our predictions. All the best

  39. What’s interesting about Newspoll is the country/city breakdown. In the five capital cities, the Coalition are on 48% which is essentially no change since 2016. This conflicts with the general consensus of Liberal problems in metropolitan areas, especially in Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane. While I’m not too confident about this result, particularly considering it’s such a narrow sub-sample of polling, it’s interesting to note nonetheless.

    Apart from a lucky run with the seats it needs to hold, I don’t see how the Coalition can win with those state numbers. Ideally, they need to improve their 2PP by about 2 points in QLD and preferably 1 point in VIC. Either that, or win a lot of seats in NSW, TAS and the NT to offset the losses predicted by that Newspoll.

  40. Boaty 1025
    Bugger !!!. Mark Latham agrees with you too !!!. Peredicted 8 – 10 majority for Labor last night on PML. Even mentioned SEQLD same as you !!. Felt like an episode of the damn Twilight Zone !!.

    What disturbs me greatly is that i feel i’m standing on the wrong side of the fence !!. I’d rather be agreeing with Richo, & ML than to have everyone else on SKY AGREE WITH ME !!. Bugger !!!.

  41. Ben
    Respectfully i’d ask you consider why the prediction issue broke out here in the first place. I’d suggest it was because this is widely seen as the single most contentious seat ( to predict?). Is that not interesting in itself ?.
    Possibly you focus on other priorities. However i’d put it to you that a kind of “organic” flow of what issues arise, or are raised, & where has some value, & interest, in of itself.
    Other examples can be found easily. Say Hume, & Cook became the battleground for an interesting, & very willing debate on the redistribution, & seat boundaries. This was entirely appropriate as these seats were the fulcrums of the subject. At the time you asked if a separate thread should be set up. At that time it seemed that this would somewhat dilute the discussion. However your proactive approach in offering the choice was IMV appropriate.
    A more converse proposition would be something like if the infamous “Coconut” comment, caused a debate to erupt on the Lingiari thread. Say issues of racism (in politics), territory specific issues of domestic violence etc were a major electoral issue. Is that thread not the appropriate place ? Would the discussion itself not point to a larger overall issue, & impact ? Obviously none of that happened, so it’s not an issue.

    Understandably there is a desire to stay on topic. However there is a case for a little chaotic, anarchic, creativity, disorder, & sometimes entertaining diversion !!.
    cheers WD

  42. There seems to be a prevailing consensus, if not wisdom that Phillips will take this. There have been many doubts, & questions raised about this. I know because i raised a lot. Most have not even had ANY RESPONSE, let alone adequate ones. The news poll today will be revealing.

  43. The mess in the coalition…. in general re Mr Molans senate attempt
    and here…. a federal mp dumping on her state colleague in parliament
    the imposition of a candidate from outside the party
    the locals front runner standing as a independent
    a national party candidate who is probably more competent than all of the “libs”
    this has to be a fracturing of the conservative vote with the resultant preference leaks to Labor
    It has to be an alp win

  44. Galaxy seat poll has this LIB 48 (-2.7) & ALP 52.
    Primary LIB 26 (-19.3), ALP 40 (+.8), NAT (+17), GRN 7 (-3.5), UAP 2

  45. Gees that Mundine Captain pick looks a shocker, 19% swing away on the PV.

    Surprising they didn’t ask about Schultz, I wonder what he’ll poll on Saturday

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