Forde – Australia 2019

LNP 0.6%

Incumbent MP
Bert van Manen, since 2010.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

The Liberal Party’s Kay Elson won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.

The LNP’s Bert van Manen won the seat back in 2010 with a 5% swing. In 2013, Labor’s original candidate, Des Hardman, was replaced by former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie very close to the election. The high-profile candidate selection didn’t help Labor, with van Manen increasing his margin by 2.8%.

Van Manen won a third term in 2016, despite a 3.75% swing to Labor which made Forde the second-most marginal Coalition seat in the country.

Candidates

Assessment
Forde is a very marginal seat and will be a top Labor target.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bert van Manen Liberal National 34,09640.6-1.9
Des Hardman Labor 31,58737.6+3.6
Sally Spain Greens 5,3936.4+2.3
David WilksIndependent5,2426.2+6.3
Annelise HellbergFamily First4,6875.6+3.4
Shaun Charles SpainLiberty Alliance2,9053.5+3.5
Informal4,4865.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bert van Manen Liberal National 42,48650.6-3.8
Des Hardman Labor 41,42449.4+3.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five parts. Booths in the Gold Coast council area are grouped as ‘South’. The remainder have been grouped as Central, North, East and West.

The Liberal National Party won a slim majority of the two-party-preferred vote, but actually lost the vote in three out of five areas on election day. They won 54% in the south and 56% in the north. Labor won a majority ranging from 54.9% in the west to 57.8% in the centre.

The LNP achieved its win primarily due to a massive 55% majority in the pre-poll.

Voter groupLNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central42.214,29517.0
South54.211,28513.4
East44.29,83811.7
North56.07,9519.5
West45.14,5945.5
Other votes52.716,18919.3
Pre-poll55.419,75823.5

Two-party-preferred votes in Forde at the 2016 federal election

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Should be an easy win for Labor this time, van Manen has been so lucky to win this three times in a row.

    The tide should wash him out this time though.

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