Flinders – Australia 2019

LIB 7.0%

Incumbent MP
Greg Hunt, since 2001.

Flinders covers most of the Mornington Peninsula, including Sorrento, Rosebud, Dromana, Hastings, Somerville and Mornington.

Flinders previously covered the northern and eastern shores of Western Port, but lost these areas to Holt and Monash. Flinders gained the suburb of Mornington from Dunkley. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 7.8% to 7%.

Flinders is an original federation electorate, and has a long history of having been held by conservative parties, with Labor only winning the seat three times, and no Labor MP managing to win re-election in Flinders.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Free Trader Arthur Groom, a former member of the Victorian colonial Parliament. Groom was not an active member of the first Parliament, and retired in 1903.

Flinders was won in 1903 by another Free Trade candidate, James Gibb, who had served in the Victorian Legislative Assembly in the 1880s. He held the seat for one term. Gibb left Flinders in 1906 in an attempt to defeat William Lyne in the NSW seat of Hume. Lyne was a former Premier of NSW and a prominent Protectionist minister, and easily saw off Gibb.

Flinders was won in 1906 by former Victorian Premier William Irvine. Irvine joined the merged Liberal Party in 1909. He served as a senior minister in Joseph Cook’s government from 1913 to 1914. He left Parliament to serve as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Victoria in 1918.

The 1918 Flinders by-election was won by Nationalist candidate Stanley Bruce. Bruce was appointed Treasurer in 1921. After the 1922 election the Nationalists had to rely on Country Party support to remain in government, and as a price for their support the Country Party demanded the replacement of Billy Hughes as Prime Minister, which saw Bruce appointed Prime Minister.

Bruce won re-election at the 1925 and 1928 elections, but his government came undone in 1929 when Billy Hughes led a group of Nationalist rebels across the floor in opposition to industrial relations legislation, and Bruce lost his majority.

Bruce’s Nationalists not only lost the federal election, but Bruce himself was defeated in Flinders by the ALP’s Jack Holloway. Holloway was secretary of the Melbourne Trades Hall Council, who had stood against Bruce in protest at the government’s arbitration policies.

Holloway was a leading left-winger in the Labor caucus during the Scullin government, and moved to the safer seat of Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as an assistant minister for much of the Scullin government, and he went on to serve as a minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, retiring in 1951.

Bruce won back Flinders in 1931 for the newly-formed United Australia Party. Bruce was appointed as a minister without portfolio in the Lyons government, and soon went to London to represent the Government. He resigned from Parliament in 1933 to serve as High Commissioner to London from the Australian government. Bruce served in the role until 1945, playing a key role in Australia’s participation in the Second World War. Bruce went on to serve in the House of Lords.

The 1933 Flinders by-election was won by James Fairbairn, who had served briefly as a UAP state MP before moving to federal Parliament. Fairbairn regularly flew aircraft and was appointed as Minister for Civil Aviation in the Menzies government in 1939. He served as the first Minister for the Air, with responsibility for the Royal Australian Air Force, and served as a key minister in the war effort until his death.

Fairbairn died in a plane crash in 1940. He was flying from Melbourne to Canberra along with four crew and five other passengers, including two other ministers and the Chief of the Defence Staff, and the plane crashed on approach to the airport in Canberra.

Fairbairn died only one month before the 1940 federal election, so no by-election was held. Flinders was won at the ensuing election by Rupert Ryan of the UAP. Ryan held the seat for the UAP and the successor Liberal Party until his death in 1952.

The 1952 Flinders by-election was won in a surprise result by the ALP’s Keith Ewert. He lost the seat at the 1954 federal election to Liberal candidate Robert Lindsay.

Lindsay held the seat until 1966, serving on the backbenches for twelve years.

In 1966, Flinders was won by Liberal candidate Phillip Lynch. Lynch quickly rose to ministerial rank, serving as a minister from 1968 until the defeat of the McMahon government in 1972.

Lynch became Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party under Billy Snedden after the 1972 election. He continued to serve in that role under Malcolm Fraser’s leadership.

Lynch served as Treasurer from 1975 to 1977, when he was forced to resign from the ministry due to allegations of tax minimisation. He was only out of office for a month before returning to Cabinet. Lynch retired from Parliament in 1982.

The 1982 Flinders by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Peter Reith. The by-election took place in December 1982, but he never took his seat, as Fraser called a double dissolution in March 1983.

Reith had won Flinders at the 1982 by-election with a small margin, and lost the seat to the ALP’s Bob Chynoweth in 1983. He won the seat back in 1984. Chynoweth moved to the new seat of Dunkley, holding it until 1990, and again from 1993 to 1996.

Reith joined the Liberal frontbench in 1987, and served as Deputy Leader and Shadow Treasurer from 1990 to 1993. He served as Minister for Workplace Relations in the Howard government from 1996 to 2000, and then as Minister for Defence from 2000 until his retirement in 2001.

Flinders was won in 2001 by Greg Hunt, a former advisor to Alexander Downer in the 1990s. Hunt has been re-elected in Flinders five times, and has served as a cabinet minister since 2013.


  • Julia Banks (Independent)
  • Louis Fenollar (People’s Party)
  • Greg Hunt (Liberal)

Flinders would typically be considered a safe Liberal seat, but the intervention of Julia Banks could change the dynamics of the race. Public polling also suggests Labor could have a chance of winning off the back of a big swing in Victoria.

2016 result

Greg Hunt Liberal 52,41251.6-3.750.5
Carolyn Gleixner Labor 27,45927.0+1.827.6
Willisa Hogarth Greens 10,86810.7+1.011.0
Ben WildAnimal Justice4,3474.3+4.33.8
Yvonne GentleRise Up Australia3,3813.3+2.82.6
Shane W LewisIndependent3,1073.1+3.12.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

Greg Hunt Liberal 58,68357.8-4.057.0
Carolyn Gleixner Labor 42,89142.2+4.043.0

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Flinders have been divided into four parts: east, north, south and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 53% in the west to 58.4% in the north.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.9% in the east to 20.9% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Other votes9.760.615,84017.4

Election results in Flinders at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!


  1. This morning at Melbourne airport ,Malcolm Turnbull praised the qualifications of Julia Banks.

    As Greg Hunt was one of the ringleaders in cutting down Turnbull,can imagine that the Ex PM would be delighted to see the incumbent beaten at the next election.

    oh the irony…Turnbull funding a campaign to dispose of Hunt

  2. the Phantom Bantam – I watch Q&A all the time and yes Banks was great. I like your screen name too.
    In my electorate of MacNamara I use screen name “Cars Rule OK” sometimes if it is a survey on more bike lanes or parking restrictions and fees.

  3. This is a safe liberal seat turning into a marginal seat by development and demographic change. The contest this election, assuming Julia Banks runs in the seat, will come down to if she will get a high enough primary to overtake Labor and gain the Labor preferences. If she does not, assuming her preferences flow to Labor, there is a chance for it to be a Labor gain.

    The state election exhibited extremely strong swings against the Liberal Party in its constituent electorates including the changing of hand of both Nepean and Bass. It is worth noting that Sportsbet has this seat as Labor 1.70, Coalition 3.50 and Julia 4.50. I’m not as sure of a Labor victory here, but clearly there is something going on to prompt Labor to be the favourites. I’d like to hear more of your experiences, Red Hill Billy.

  4. Most of the people i know in the area have had at least one call I have received two survey calls one was quite stupid asking about preferences but didnt make sense so hung up also received a robocall from Greg dutton -hunt the election of the Labor candidate in the state election will be a plus for labor federally I think Age today reports Labor to target the seat as well as Dunkley so i reckon liberal resources might be stretched
    Could be every man for himself Personally I find it hard to see Banks running third to Labor but i might not be surprised if hunt runs third after Banks he is on the nose

  5. On the ground, there is a real feeling of backlash against Greg Hunt here (beyond even the generally large swings in the state election). While the Sportsbet odds suggest Labor is odds on to pick this up, that must still be considered a big ask. Liberal resources are swinging into this seat and out of Dunkley (which is considered gone). And Greg Hunt has suddenly surfaced in his electorate.

  6. Joshie

    Disagree that Flinders is changing due to “development and demographic change” firstly it has a fairly stable population which is generally older or wealthier and large parts of the Peninsula are off-limits to development. This seat should be an easy Liberal hold but it currently looks like being a potential ALP gain.

    The ALP has for sometime done well around Hastings and Rosebud. The state seat of Hastings extends beyond the federal seat of Flinders to include areas around Langwarrin which is in Dunkley and the state seat of Mornington includes Mt Eliza which is in Dunkley.

    My assessment is that the ALP are a real chance here except the test will be can they overcome any backlash from the large retiree population.

  7. Local intel is that the Liberals are redirecting their resources from Dunkley (ground campaign reduced to a few loyal troopers) to Flinders. Greg Hunt is busier than he has ever been before (and has everyone asking, why only now?) Julia Banks interview on The Project was a killer and shows that she is up for the fight. While she has few resources to fight the Liberal machine with, don’t be surprised if Malcolm Turnbull shows his face for Banks. This would hurt Hunt with the moderates. The new Labor candidate is also close to the new State member for Nepean, a seat that everyone also thought unwinnable. So this is now a real three-cornered contest. My tips on local issues that will matter: (i) funding for Rosebud Hospital (Hunt vulnerable for favouring private over public hospitals), (ii) franking credits (will benefit Hunt with so many self-funded retirees), (iii) the environment and climate change (another reason for locals to punish Hunt).

  8. Is the My Health Record having much of an effect there as an issue, does anyone know? Or any other decisions he’s made as health minister?

  9. Greg Dutton – Hunt is definitely on the nose in Flinders. Not sure if enough to swing the seat to Labor or Banks
    Get up has chosen to target Flinders and i believe ALP is also First time for a long time any one has seriously challenged in this seat so you never Know
    ALP candidate Josh Sinclair was the successful campaign manager for Chris Brayne (ALP) who took the “safe” seat of Nepean from the libs at the state election Flinders pretty much contains Nepean plus a bit more

  10. Normally Labor could not win this seat and the liberals could not lose it


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here