Fairfax – Australia 2019

LNP 10.9%

Incumbent MP
Ted O’Brien, since 2016.

Geography
Sunshine Coast of Queensland. Fairfax covers the central part of Sunshine Coast Regional Council. It covers the towns of Buderim, Maroochydore and Nambour, as well as following the coast from Maroochydore to Coolum Beach.

Redistribution
Fairfax lost a small area on its southern boundary, including Palmwoods, to Fisher. This change had no impact on the seat’s margin.

History
Fairfax was first created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded, and has always been held by conservative parties. The seat was first won by Evan Adermann of the National Party, who had previously held Fisher since the 1972 election and served as a minister in the Fraser government.

Adermann retired at the 1990 election, and the seat was fought as a three-cornered contest in 1990. The ALP came first on primaries, with the Nationals leading the Liberals by 0.7% on primary votes. A high Democrats vote pushed the Liberals ahead of Nationals candidate John Stone, who had resigned from the Senate to contest the seat, and Liberal candidate Alex Somlyay won the seat on National preferences.

Somlyay held the seat by varying margins, most recently having a margin of over 62% following the redistribution before the 2007 election. A 9.4% swing to the ALP made Fairfax a marginal seat following the 2007 election. A 4% swing back to the LNP strengthened Somlyay’s position in 2010.

In 2013, Alex Somlyay retired, and the seat was won by Clive Palmer, running for his newly founded Palmer United Party. The race was extremely close, only being decided after weeks of counting. Palmer won by only 57 votes.

Candidates
No information

Assessment
In the absence of a big-spending candidate like Clive Palmer, this seat is reasonably safe for the LNP.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Ted O’Brien Liberal National 44,78748.4+7.148.5
Scott Anderson Labor 19,05420.6+2.420.6
Susan Etheridge Greens 11,67212.6+4.312.7
Robert PasqualiOne Nation9,0069.7+8.99.7
Keith Alexander CampbellIndependent2,8863.1+3.13.1
David ReesFamily First2,4492.6+1.02.6
Robert DicksonIndependent1,9852.1+2.22.1
Kris BullenOnline Direct Democracy6240.7+0.70.7
Informal6,1466.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Ted O’Brien Liberal National 56,29960.9-0.860.9
Scott Anderson Labor 36,16439.1+0.839.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Those booths near the coast have been split into “North-East” and “South-East”. The south-east is the most populous part of the seat, including Maroochydore and Buderim. The north-east includes seats close to the coast.

Booths away from the coast have been split into those near the town of Nambour, and the other booths grouped as “West”.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, with just under 57% in three of the four areas, and almost 61% in the south-east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 12% in Nambour to 17.6% in the west.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East12.760.816,08618.1
Nambour12.056.910,26211.6
North-East15.356.610,28811.6
West17.656.65,9196.7
Other votes13.261.612,43514.0
Pre-poll10.963.933,76738.0

Election results in Fairfax at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.