Dickson – Australia 2019

LNP 1.7%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.

Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.

Dickson has often been considered a typical ‘mortgage belt’ seat and is also characterised by primarily being comprised of urban/bushland interface suburbs.

Redistribution
Dickson expanded slightly on its south-eastern edge, gaining Bridgeman Downs from Lilley. This slightly increased the LNP margin from 1.6% to 1.7%.

History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.

Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.

Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.

Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since, serving as a minister during the Howard government’s last term. In 2007 an 8.8% swing to the ALP saw Dutton hold the seat by just 217 votes. Dutton strengthened his hold on Dickson in 2010 with a 5.9% swing, and gained a further 1.6% swing in 2013.

Dutton has served as a senior minister in the Abbott/Turnbull coalition government, first in Health and then in Immigration/Home Affairs. He suffered a 5.1% swing at the 2016 election, but managed to win a seventh term.

Candidates

Assessment
Dickson is a very marginal seat. Peter Dutton is a prominent minister and will presumably have a large campaign to hold on to the seat, but he will also be a prime target for defeat if Labor remains on track to win the election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 40,51944.6-3.544.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 31,76934.9+3.635.0
Michael Berkman Greens 8,9719.9+3.59.8
Ray HutchinsonFamily First3,8684.3+2.54.2
Thor ProhaskaIndependent3,2173.5+3.53.4
Doug NicholsonLiberal Democrats2,5892.8+2.92.8
Informal3,1723.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 46,92251.6-5.151.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 44,01148.4+5.148.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 56% in the south-east and almost 60% in the west. Labor won 56.7% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east.

The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the north-east to 16% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East8.843.325,10926.6
South-East11.155.722,62624.0
West16.459.86,9917.4
Other votes9.153.917,35918.4
Pre-poll8.352.822,38323.7

Election results in Dickson at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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90 COMMENTS

  1. Ben
    Thanks for info on UComms.
    Phone
    Calling will not have much of a bias in Dickson. The Great majority of houses will have a land line. One potential problem is do live at home single adults answer the Landline or just sit back and wait for Mum or Dad to answer?
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  2. Andrew Jackson –

    Or in my case, no matter who answers, the phone is handed to me and I take the poll!

  3. Dutton ,in hot water for breaching ministerial rules by failing to pay taxpayers for the value of his mobile office caravan’s refurbishment gifted to him by a business in north Brisbane.

    Attention to detail has never been one of Dutton’s strong suits….as evidenced by his failure to count accurately in the leadership coup last August’

  4. Peter Dutton must be feeling very uneasy after watching this evenings 4 Corners program

    Santo Santoro(ex Howard Minister) who now works as a highly paid lobbyist,dropped Dutton into it by bragging on tape, that he had direct access to the Minister…who had the capacity to expedite matters”for a fee”

    we all know of Duttons ability to expedite matters…like immediate au pair approvals

  5. Dutton attacks his Labor opponent Ali France,claiming that she is using her disability as an excuse for not moving into the electorate

    More evidence to show that Dutton is unfit to be the member for Dickson

  6. TPB
    Would you prefer him as Premier of Qld ?. That is where he will be real soon. Clearly you don’t understand Queenslanders.

  7. Hes ruled at entering state politics, even if he runs in Aspley in 2020 he will lose, and if pulls off a Newman he will lose in a landslide, obviously you dont understand QLD at all, because they dont like Newman type politicans, you have no idea how much damage Newman did to this state, imagine dutton

  8. Daniel
    I spent a week of my life 10 times a year for more than 20 years, & spent the whole time listening to natives, since before you were born. Because your view of Dutton is so unbalanced you are under estimating him. Watch you don’t become deranged as Malcolm clearly has become.

  9. Seems all expect Dutton to lose including himself….may be that Explains his strange attack on his alp opponent

  10. Daniel
    Dutton is not another Newman. Dutton has been given the poison chalice of the immigration portfolio. This means only the middle in Australian politics support his decisions. The Red Green and One Nation/ Anning have one policy in common they think Dutton is immoral. This group is about 16% of population. ALP and Liberals have a common immigration of population and in general this policy is supported by Katter, Palmer, DLP, and most other minor parties. It is only extremists that oppose this immigration policy.
    If Dutton loses it will be because of general swing to ALP not extremist groups like Get Up or Greens campaigning directly against Dutton.

  11. @Daniel absolutely rot, Newman tried to put Queensland back on the right track and now PalaSUCK is driving the place into the ground again.

  12. What about all the workers that lost their jobs Sheriff? What about cutting Solar panel savings from 44c to 8c?

  13. Daniel
    blinded by your obsessive & myopic hatreds. A quick google search reveals that ALL state govts reduced feed in tariffs to 8 cents. But no, it is all NEWMAN’s fault. Oh & my arse bleeds for public servants & their fat redundancies. This in a state with an $80+ billion deficit. Do you live in some altered state of reality, or dimension ?

  14. I generally think Peter Dutton is very overrated. The view that he would have improved the LNP fortunes in Queensland if he became PM also were exaggerated and his polling was horrible in NSW and Vic.

    His comments about his Labor opponent Ali France were despicable, desperate, and show a complete lack of judgement. Peter Dutton is getting desperate and his comments may backfire on him big time.

    Dutton standing for a state seat in brisbane would be unlikely to win. The LNP combination of a regional/rural based leader like Deb Frecklington and LNP/One Nation preference deals make it unappealing for a Brisbane voter to vote LNP at the moment. The view that Dutton would be a LNP savior and become premier is laughable.

  15. Duttons is certainly no saviour – far too controversial to win an election. He may have had some appeal in QLD (though I’m skeptical he would have done well in Brisbane), however he would have been trashed everywhere else.

    Personally, I don’t see anything wrong with his comments. Were they low? Yes, but that doesn’t mean the sentiments expressed weren’t entirely untrue. HOWEVER, having said that it is a bit rich having that kind of criticism come from him when not loo long ago he was more than happy to try and jump ship to (McPherson was it?).

    I think Dutton will give Labor a spirited campaign for the seat. Despite what the margin suggests, this will be no walkover for Labor. Nevertheless, I don’t think his margin is large enough to survive – even if the Coalition manage to somehow minimise the statewide swing.

  16. Wine Diamond
    I had retired by the time Newman came to power promising that no public servant needed to fear for their job. Within a week of the election results camping in all of the hundred or so public servants I had worked with (1km from Dutton’s office knew their jobs had gone)
    Over half of those public servants were in fact OO2 Storemen and their “fat redundancies” were 13 weeks pay plus entitlements.
    t Goprint (Government Printer) similarly most of redundancies were paid to OO2 Operators on minimum salaries.These blokes worked in an environment where industry standard printing machines changed every year but they operated machinery 25 years old.
    Yes the older ones had enjoyed reliable employment but they worked in industrial conditions that had been replaced in private industry 20 years previously.
    They got 13 weeks pay, their accrued Long Service Leave, Annual Leave and the Hawke era standard super. OO staff did not get public service super entitlements.

    Newman should be remembered as a politician who went to election promising one thing and as one who was less than honest with his intentions to honour his promises.

    He promised to repeal the Civil Unions legislation and within a month had decided it could not be done.

    Newman should have been a life member of ALP for the service that he did and continues to do for that party. Liberals should have sacked him.

    Dutton is no where in the same league as Newman.

    Dutton’s comments were stupid and unacceptable but they have no doubt been taken out of context.
    As I have said previously I expect Dickson to be one of the first seats to fall on election night but this is not Dutton that is being defeated but rather an overall swing against Libs.

  17. Andrew Jackson
    An interesting cul de sac. Imagine that public servants could work for the minimum wage in 2015 !! Who’d have thought ?? The question begs. What the hell was the govt doing running a printing business ??. Particularly one with outdated machinery ??. Was it some kind of sheltered workshop !!??
    If i’d found some kind of anachronism like that, i’d have executed the thing too !!. But didn’t Newman get rid of 30k of public servants ?
    Anyway Newman is a Type 1 fixation, so the softest thing about him was always giong to be his teeth !! Type 1’s are fanatics, which is why the Greens are such a menace, & so completely offensive. They always think that because their cause (& they themselves) are righteous, anything is justified. So no one ought to have been surprised by all the excesses. Indeed i could argue that he was elected to be excessive, to be himself !!. Then voters got upset when they got what they voted for !!. My heart bleeds.

    Gee & i am all ripped up about the Ali France thing. IT WAS ungentlemanly, & ill judged. Then there are SO, SO many examples of gentlemanly well judged behaviour from Labor/& the GREENS !!.The snowflake missed the golden opportunity to take Dutton on directly ie :: “IF Peter wants to fight bare knuckled ” THEN “Bring it on ” Would that have not been far more impressive??. Instead we we got — victim. i know what i would vote for.

  18. I’ve read Dutton has sold his apartment in Canberra. Maybe his internal polling and the mood on the ground isn’t looking too flash for him?

    ALP gain, he shot himself in the foot by giving his opponent national notoriety and making himself look like a dick.

  19. boatswain 1025 – the reason the Canberra flat has been sold is the Dutton hopes to be in the Lodge some times after the election if the Coalition wins and he rolls the current PM in a party room spill.

  20. Dutton is finished here. In fact, I’d rate this as probably the most likely LNP seat to fall to Labor in QLD. Yes, more than Capricornia, Flynn, Dawson and even Petrie.

  21. Sunday night the PML SKY PUB TEST. This should be pretty revealing. There is so, so much noise about Dutton being gone. So many people loathe him. It seems to be all about how he looks, & sounds. What he is supposed to represent (projection). A Forceful rebuttal based on his resume, & record, often gives pause. Most people are unaware of his police career achievements, & forget the fact that he has been a 3, yes three time successful minister. Contrast this to most of the labor shadows who were twice if not thrice FAILED ministers.

    Having said all that i won’t be unhappy if he is released from his responsibilities. I am completely certain that in that event, his detractors will be appalled at the outcome, & consequences !!. There is equal certainty that Dutton will be universally underrated , & underestimated. He is highly intelligent, & capable. WRT Enneagram Dutton is a type 6 Social Subtype. So he is a different fixation than most pollies. (type 5s) Type 6s like Dutton are counter phobic & dominate social service fields like the military, police fires, ambos etc.

    Electorally i believe Dutton’s personal vote is far more solid, & substantial, than is recognised. The Adani issue is not so important in itself. However it feeds what i would describe as QLD “SEIGE MENTALITY”. iT DOESN’T take a lot for QLDer’s to feel victimised, or that they are being discriminated against. People would be surprised at how often a casual reference to the “Brisbane line” can get a reaction !!. I speak from experience, & i dare anyone to question my skills at getting reactions !!. BS has been particularly incompetent at dealing with this challenge, to the point where his (lack of) popularity would be significantly worse in QLD, & growing

  22. @winediamond

    Remember this is a blog for analysis on seats and there was very little analysis in your rant. One of your comments “Dutton three time successful minister” and “labor shadows who were twice if not thrice FAILED ministers” is more based on political bias and very little logic or fact. According to your logic they were failed ministers because they were Labor ministers. The Adani issue impacting on a suburban Brisbane seat is really clutching at straws.

    Reports in telegraph suggest Peter Dutton is in “in serious strife” in this seat because of the disability comment. The fact he refused to apologise for two days and suggested it was ‘feedback from the electorate’ was poor form and a refusal to take ownership that may cost him.

  23. As a sign that Dutton is feeling a wee bit uneasy, he has sold his unit in Canberra

    not exactly a vote of confidence in Morrison

  24. PN
    I completely reject your judgement that i engaged in little analysis, you simply dislike the conclusions i drew. Bad luck. We are both entitled to have our own view. Equally i reject your typification of “rant” that comment reflects self indulgent hyperbole. As for bias about successful ministers i invite you to nominate successful ministers in the RGR GOVT. Other than Tanner, & Gillard i believe you’ll have great difficulty !!.

    The impact of Dutton’s injudicious comments about Ali France is overestimated. Do you really think it will change anyone’s opinion about him ??

    You completely missed the qualification i made WRT Adani.. I would suggest you read more carefully, & give proper consideration before going off half cocked

    Hope this helps
    cheers wd

  25. WD

    it definately doesn’t help when you are defending a seat on such a small margin. Biggest problem for me is that he just gave his opponent much more publicity.

  26. Boaty1025
    That is a very fair point. However i never said it was a good call. It was as foolish as Abbott reflecting on his leadership prospects. Why can’t politicians just shut up ??. The old man always used to tell me “Listen, & don’t say much, & people will think your’e smart” As usual the old prick’s pithy wisdom was correct !!.
    Obviously all our politicians missed out on this sort of guidance. Instead they can’t wait to tell everyone how smart they are, & what they know !!. Problem is that usually confirms the opposite!!.

  27. Watched the pub test
    The Greens candidate, & France were inexcusably absent. How cowardly, gutless, & stupid. They have a room full of LOCAL voters &they refuse to front. Disgusting !!!. They have an OBLIGATION, & A DUTY. Anyway on the plus side the debate was infinitely more productive, & constructive.

    Of particular interest was several road projects which have been funded federally $100s millions which have been stymied by palaschuk . Pretty dumb stuff.
    France is a long term Labor member, & hardened political operator, father was MP according to Newman.
    Dutton did extremely well, & enhanced himself in every way, without much contention.

  28. Keating’s outburst this morning makes one think he has defected. He must have the political nous to know that carrying on like a street brawler does ALP more damage than good.
    Libs are obviously worried about Dickson and then along comes the Irish botherboy.

  29. Still waiting for nominations from Political Nightwatchman of successful ministers from the RGR govt. Was it REALLY that difficult a question ?. Or could this actually mean something …!!???. aN UNCOMFORTABLE REALITY !!??. a Hard truth !!??

    A good govt let down by disunity ….!!!. Yeah right.

    Andrew
    Isn’t it great to have PJK remind us of how things used to be !!??. Labor should pay Kennett to do the same stuff.

  30. Wine Diamond
    Yes most divisive figures in post war Australia have been:
    Whitlam
    Kennet
    Keating
    Bjelke Petersen
    Campbell Newman
    Evatt and Santamaria

    Being divisive is not wrong if you are on the side of angels. But devil worshippers or just plain old sinners do not like angels. However as far as I am concerned only Bjelke and Santamaria worked for good.

  31. 51-49 to Dutton here. If that was replicated on Saturday, I’d be surprised to say the least. Labor aren’t looking too flash based off today’s seat polling and have been regularly falling short in most of their target seats.

    Naturally, the polls could be completely wrong and/or mistakenly allocating too high a preference flow from the UAP/ON to the LNP.

    Nevertheless, we shall know the result shortly. Not long to go now!

  32. The seat polls in QLD today don’t make much sense in the context of Newspoll and Galaxy state polls showing a significant swing away from the LNP. Makes me think the seat polls are wildly inaccurate, which wouldn’t be surprising.

  33. Mick

    Not sure where you are but have you any gut feel on Dickson? The trouble with making predictions about Qld is that the seats cover large areas and wildly different populations. For example Dickson will never go green but it DOES contain the greenest booth in the country (small but still 50% green). Dickson includes some very urban areas indeed almost inner city, as well as country areas and One Nation hold outs.

  34. I live in suburban Sydney…. my feeling is he will lose (Dutton)…. it seems the swing for qld will exceed his margin and the se qld figure will be higher esp if the 3 central qld seats don’t swing as others suspect

  35. Anyone who believes seat polling, You are being ridiculous, Seat polls tend to be off quite a bit, They had the Coalition well ahead in Bass the other week. And last election they had Warringah going to Labor 57-43! So yeah never trust seat polls, Dutton will not win after all the scandals and he just cannot win if the tide turns (Which it will) This is a marginal seat, If your saying he will hold on, Your basically implying that hes a popular local member to survive the tide. Hes actually one of the most unpopular politicians in the country at the moment. I know this will be close. But at least not considering hes the UNDERDOG is quite silly. Labor gain

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