Dickson – Australia 2019

LNP 1.7%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.

Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.

Dickson has often been considered a typical ‘mortgage belt’ seat and is also characterised by primarily being comprised of urban/bushland interface suburbs.

Redistribution
Dickson expanded slightly on its south-eastern edge, gaining Bridgeman Downs from Lilley. This slightly increased the LNP margin from 1.6% to 1.7%.

History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.

Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.

Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.

Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since, serving as a minister during the Howard government’s last term. In 2007 an 8.8% swing to the ALP saw Dutton hold the seat by just 217 votes. Dutton strengthened his hold on Dickson in 2010 with a 5.9% swing, and gained a further 1.6% swing in 2013.

Dutton has served as a senior minister in the Abbott/Turnbull coalition government, first in Health and then in Immigration/Home Affairs. He suffered a 5.1% swing at the 2016 election, but managed to win a seventh term.

Candidates

Assessment
Dickson is a very marginal seat. Peter Dutton is a prominent minister and will presumably have a large campaign to hold on to the seat, but he will also be a prime target for defeat if Labor remains on track to win the election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 40,51944.6-3.544.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 31,76934.9+3.635.0
Michael Berkman Greens 8,9719.9+3.59.8
Ray HutchinsonFamily First3,8684.3+2.54.2
Thor ProhaskaIndependent3,2173.5+3.53.4
Doug NicholsonLiberal Democrats2,5892.8+2.92.8
Informal3,1723.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 46,92251.6-5.151.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 44,01148.4+5.148.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 56% in the south-east and almost 60% in the west. Labor won 56.7% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east.

The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the north-east to 16% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East8.843.325,10926.6
South-East11.155.722,62624.0
West16.459.86,9917.4
Other votes9.153.917,35918.4
Pre-poll8.352.822,38323.7

Election results in Dickson at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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27 COMMENTS

  1. Dutton has a high profile but has also been campaigning inn electorate. HE ran a Seniors Expo in the Community Centre adjacent to his office. Well run bringing in potential Business Suppliers and large number of e-mail contacts.. He is not anywhere near as unpopular as media attempt to portray him. No doubt he would not have a hope of winning in LIlley or Griffith but Dickson is marginal seat .
    No doubt that this election ill be a Taxation election which will favour Coalition.

    ALP Taxation policy will bight in Dickson. Demography is precisely those who will be hurt by ALP’s Taxation Tax Credits removal. i.e. Not Wealthy not poor retired and on a part pension. Dickson is a public service / retied public service electorate .

    HIs one biggest risk is Boat Arrivals.

    I worked in electorate from 1987 to 2010 and have lived in one of the two adjoining electorates since 1988.

    18 Months out I predict Dutton will hold by narrow margin.

    His weakness is lack of local activity a problem that all cabinet ministers have but this is made up for in National attention that he gets.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  2. The result would depend on how big the swing to Labor is in Queensland, if it is a big swing Dutton would definitely lose the seat.

  3. I can confirm that the Dickson campaign has already started.

    Ali France’s Twitter [@alifrance5] has pictures of her campaign doing roadsides and such.

    Meanwhile from the LNP side we’ve already received our first attack flyer. [https://i.imgur.com/9rQZ4ma.jpg] Oh, and Dutton’s usual Anzac Day flyer, though I imagine most of that will be identical across the country.

  4. Benedict Coyne is the Greens candidate.

    Not much electoral material through the letterbox yet. One thing from GetUp a week or so ago featuring the infamous bad-lighting photo of Dutton. Seems like my corner of the electorate is one of the least volatile parts.

  5. Ben Raue would it be possible to add state electorate boundaries as a layer to the maps?

    I think the main overlapping state seats are Kurwongbah and Pine Rivers; both Labor held with reasonably strong margins. Pine Rivers was a key LNP target at the state election but Labor picked up a 2% swing.

    All that’s to say that the votes are there for Labor to win, and the 2016 campaign by no means “tapped out” the vote.

    Labor are running big here as a typical “marginal seat’ and still will if Dutton moves to a safe seat.

    Predicting an ALP gain; the biggest scalp of the election.

  6. One would expect Labor to run a very offensive campaign here purely for the sake of unseating a high profile minister.

    My current verdict is a fairly narrow result tipped slightly in Labor’s favour.

  7. There has been Speculation but not likely that Mr. Dutton will challenge Turnbull for leadership over some Energy policy. If true, Dutton is more far right then Turnbull hes an Abbot style politician so if he becomes PM its very likely Mr Dutton will join Stanley Bruce and John Howard and become the 3rd Prime minister to lose his seat in an election. I could imagine him doing even worse than Turnbull. Unlikely that he becomes Pm but possible. All speculation for now

  8. I now believe that Dutton is the *only* credible pre-election challenger – for the simple reason that everyone else is in a safe seat, and is probably more looking to their position after the election.

    Dutton, on the other hand, stands a strong chance of losing his seat.

    Being PM might just save him in Dickson and would of course necessitate a parachuting if he lost Dickson but they won overall. Win/win for him either way.

    Not being PM and getting parachuted post-election seems to be a rather unlikely occurrence. Further, I imagine it would only happen if the LNP in Queensland overwhelmingly wanted him to challenge…

  9. If Turnbull thinks his leadership is truly under threat, he’ll call an election.

    For every seat the Liberals could save in Queensland by switching to Dutton, there would be at least one “small-l” seat that becomes a total write off. It will be a question of which seats they want to save. The fact that Dutton is the only leadership contender based in Queensland says it all to me.

  10. Maybe Dutton challenges wins Turnbull resigns causes a by-election then the candidate for Wentworth is Dutton

  11. BREAKING NEWS: Dutton loses spill 35-48 But says will not rule out doing it again near future, I think Dutton would do worse than turnbull in the election due to him being more conservative (voters may see him as another Tony abbot) And trash him in the election. What would be interesting is will he hold his seat? If this was to go on

  12. Given Dutton’s prominent role in the destabilisation, without the resulting payoff of actually becoming leader, you’d have to think his place in parliament has become even more endangered.

  13. Dutton knew he was mostly going to lose his seat, the only thing he thought might save was a prime ministerial incumbency. He tried, and it didn’t work out.

    My money is on him to lose Dickson whenever the next election is.

  14. Not even sure Dutton is going to contest the way things are going.

    This will be a “Safe Labor Seat” if he does recontest and GetUp don’t put their resources in other seats.

  15. We have a new race today.

    Dutton is done for unless he moves to another electorate (which I believe him resigning from politics altogether is more likely). Being Prime Minister was his last chance at saving himself here and he blew it.

  16. Ali France had street stall outside Bunnings at Bald Hills this morning.3 A frames with red shirt attendant. Dutton’s shenanigans this week will have done him little harm.
    Dickson adjoins Longman and same demographic forces will be in play.Electricity prices will and reliability will cut more ice than climate change with the electorate’s voters.
    Feature of electorate is too few jobs with virtually nothing but service sector jobs available.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  17. Interesting that Dutton’s talents, qualities, accomplishments, & abilities seem so unappreciated. What would we think without any personal experience of him, & just examining his CV, & history ?.

    One Nation running in Dickson have made things almost impossible for Dutton. He will go down fighting. However if i were him, i’d have a good rest, reinvent, & family time. Then if there is fire in the belly, have a crack at being the next QLD Premier.

  18. “Dutton’s shenanigans this week will have done him little harm.”

    @Andrew Jackson

    You are kidding if you think that is the case. The events of last week have made the coalition look like a divided rabble and Peter Dutton has come out the biggest loser because he missed out on the biggest prize as PM believing this was the best strategy of retaining his seat.

    It will take a miracle for the coalition to win the next election. Problem with Dutton is the same problem with modern politics in general. MP’s more concerned about holding their seats at any cost rather then caring about the national interest.

  19. Unlikely to win, yes but walloped? I’m not so sure. Labor were looking at annihilation when Rudd replaced Gillard, yet he managed to lead them to a significant, yet much reduced defeat in 2013. I expect something similar to happen for the government.

  20. Thinking about it, I don’t even think Dutton not recontesting will be able to save the seat.

    It’s such a marginal seat that will likely be the focus of a lot of media attention as one of the “key seats” of the election, Dutton or no dutton. GetUp may lose some of the wind from their sails, but they will likely still spend resources in marginal seats.

    I am putting losing Dickson in the “inevitable” category, and with that I have no idea what the LNP’s path to victory will look like. I’m not even sure what they’ll say to the media when asked what seats they are hoping to win to hold off the ALP (maybe Lindsay and Bean).

  21. Sportsbet has this seat at Labor $1.25 and Liberals $3.50 in which are very ominous signs for Dutton considering Sportsbet is not exactly giving away all the marginal seats to Labor in Queensland as favorites.

    You would have to think someone knows something on the internal polling for the odds to be leaning that way

  22. Surely this would be insider trading? And surely the bookies would be alert to this. Bookies make money no matter what the result. My inclination is that Dutton is in trouble but this is because of Newspoll General trend and Dutton’s understandable lack of involvement with Dickson issues.
    Andrew Jackson

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