Canning – Australia 2019

LIB 6.8%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.

Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of Boddington, Mandurah, Murray, Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Waroona council areas, as well as small parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Kalamunda council areas.

History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.

Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.

The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.

Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.

Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.

Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.

Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

  • Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
  • Jodie Moffat (Greens)
  • Mellisa Teede (Labor)

Assessment
Canning has become a less marginal seat since the creation of Burt shaved off the Armadale area prior to the last election. The seat could still flip if Labor does well, but it’s less likely than it once would have been.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Hastie Liberal 42,49750.3-1.5
Barry Winmar Labor 27,91833.0+5.6
Aeron Blundell-Camden Greens 7,3888.7+1.6
Jason Turner Nationals 3,5814.2+2.5
Janine Joy Vander VenAustralian Christians3,1103.7+1.5
Informal3,7434.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Hastie Liberal 47,98756.8-4.6
Barry Winmar Labor 36,50743.2+4.6

Booth breakdown

Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Serptentine-Jarrahdale, Armadale and Kalamunda council areas in the north, and Murray, Waroona and Boddington council areas in the south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.5% in Mandurah North to 59.2% in Mandurah South.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North57.015,68118.6
Mandurah North51.514,10116.7
Mandurah South59.212,02214.2
South57.98,89010.5
Other votes57.913,30215.7
Pre-poll57.620,49824.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Canning at the 2016 federal election

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9 COMMENTS

  1. This seat is a really good example of changing boundaries being critical to election results over time. If I recall correctly, until 1980, Canning covered a large part of the overwhelmingly conservative wheatbelt, making it unwinnable for Labor. In 1980 the wheatbelt was united in O’Connor and Canning contracted into the southern suburbs, becoming a classic suburban marginal. It shifted northwards in 1984 with the creation of Brand, taking some voters from Tangney (and making that seat safer for the Libs), and then as Ben said, the most recent redistribution shifted Canning again, taking out Labor’s best area.

  2. Andrew Hastie always makes me think of Dudley Doright ! Has he ever done anything wrong, in his whole life !? How would you campaign against this bloke ?. It would have to be completely impersonal i suppose ?
    It is hard to see anything shifting Hastie. He is a dark horse for party leadership post election. However he will need to show a harder, & more penetrating edge to have a real chance.
    Perhaps a less positive, & optimistic leader is needed to tackle the huge systemic problems of the Liberal Party.

  3. Antony Green posted that Labor would be ahead 5.6% 2PP if they duplicated the state results. “Federal Drag” will save Hastie, although I’m not sure why the general consensus is that he’s safe and Keenan (on a safer margin with state numbers) is at risk in Stirling.

    Interestingly those state numbers also had Labor winning Forrest and in spitting distance of Moore and Tangney. If the WA Nats have a resurgence in the 2 large rurals, Julie Bishop could be a very lonely MP.

  4. The state swing was 12.7% – if it was even across the state, and repeated at the Federal election, the ALP would win 14/16 (leaving Curtin and O’Connor), and would sweep into office even if they only held what they current have in the rest of the country.

    Interestingly, the state swing was more muted in the Curtin and O’Connor areas (and in parts of Forrest) than the rest of the state.

    I’d also say this is only going to happen Federally in Bill Shorten’s wettest dreams. But certainly swings that take out Canning and Stirling (and Pearce, Swan and Hasluck) would not be surprising. I’d think at the moment it would be somewhere from 4.5% to 7.5%, though uneven.

  5. I think Hastie is probably in a good enough position to get over the line here, 6.8 is a large margin to lose from after already losing 4.6 last time. It will be interesting to see the results in the Darling Range by-election, if both parties run it will give a good indication on how the liberals are performing in outer suburbs WA without the Barnett factor.

    There was a larger swing last election in Canning compared with Stirling. I think Labor put a little more effort in to campaigning in Canning last time and nominated a candidate really late for Stirling, perhaps that is why people are guessing Keenan is at greater risk?

  6. Note that this will be the 7th time in 6 years that this region has had to go to the polls, and the 8th for those in the north (Darling Range, Armadale etc.).

    2013 WA State Election
    2013 Federal Election
    2014 WA Senate Special Election
    2015 Canning by-election
    2016 Federal Election
    2017 WA State Election
    2018 Darling Range By Election (For those in the north of the electorate)
    and now the 2018/19 Federal Election

    Surely that’s some sort of record.

    As for who wins I’m expecting a varying swing across the state ranging from 3-8%, making it close, but Hastie should win narrowly.

  7. Admittedly a lot of time left to go but heard that Mandurah booths are in play here for Labor, in which case with a strong showing in traditional areas around Armadale, that will topple WA’s version of a fascist Potato.

  8. Canning is more likely than not to fall to Labor despite the apparent margin, this is a seat in flux with its growing mortgage belt areas and is more vulnerable to large swings than established areas on similar margins like Stirling.

    Expect the biggest swings in the areas around Armadale in the north of the seat.

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