Canning – Australia 2019

LIB 6.8%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Hastie, since 2015.

Geography
South of Perth. Canning covers urban fringe and rural areas to the south of Perth, including Mandurah and most of the Peel region. Canning covers the entirety of Boddington, Mandurah, Murray, Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Waroona council areas, as well as small parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Kalamunda council areas.

History
Canning was first created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. For the early part of its history it was contested between the Liberal Party and the Country Party, and since the 1980s the seat has become much more of a Labor-Liberal marginal seat, usually being held by the party winning government.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Leonard Hamilton of the Country Party, who had previously held Swan since 1946.

Hamilton retired in 1961 and the seat was won by Liberal Neil McNeill, who was defeated by the Country Party’s John Hallett in 1963. Hallett held the seat until 1974, when the Liberal Party’s Mel Bungey defeated him.

The ALP’s Wendy Fatin won the seat in 1983 at the same time as the election of the Hawke government. Fatin transferred to the new seat of Brand in 1984, and the ALP’s George Gear transferred into Canning from Tangney, which he had held after the 1983 election.

Gear was defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Ricky Johnston, who had previously ran against Gear at every election since 1984. Johnston was defeated herself by Labor’s Jane Gerick in 1998.

Gerick was defeated narrowly by Liberal candidate Don Randall in 2001.

Randall held Canning for over a decade, winning re-election in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013. His narrow margin in 2001 blew out to 59.5% in 2004, shrinking to 52.2% in 2010 before growing out to 61.8% in 2013.

Randall died in early 2015, and the ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. Hastie was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

  • Mellisa Teede (Labor)

Assessment
Canning has become a less marginal seat since the creation of Burt shaved off the Armadale area prior to the last election. The seat could still flip if Labor does well, but it’s less likely than it once would have been.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Hastie Liberal 42,49750.3-1.5
Barry Winmar Labor 27,91833.0+5.6
Aeron Blundell-Camden Greens 7,3888.7+1.6
Jason Turner Nationals 3,5814.2+2.5
Janine Joy Vander VenAustralian Christians3,1103.7+1.5
Informal3,7434.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Hastie Liberal 47,98756.8-4.6
Barry Winmar Labor 36,50743.2+4.6

Booth breakdown

Booths are split into four areas. About half of the seat’s population is in the Mandurah council area, and this area has been split into Mandurah North and Mandurah South, along the river. The remainder of the seat was split into north and south, with Serptentine-Jarrahdale, Armadale and Kalamunda council areas in the north, and Murray, Waroona and Boddington council areas in the south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.5% in Mandurah North to 59.2% in Mandurah South.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North57.015,68118.6
Mandurah North51.514,10116.7
Mandurah South59.212,02214.2
South57.98,89010.5
Other votes57.913,30215.7
Pre-poll57.620,49824.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Canning at the 2016 federal election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.