Burt – Australia 2019

ALP 7.1%

Incumbent MP
Matt Keogh, since 2016.

Geography
South of Perth. Burt covers parts of Armadale, Canning and Gosnells council areas, including the suburbs of Armadale, Canning Vale, Gosnells, Huntingdale, Kelmscott, Thornlie and Westfield.

History
Burt was first created in 2016, primarily out of parts of Canning. That seat had been a marginal seat, leaning towards the Liberal Party.

Labor’s Matt Keogh lost the 2015 Canning by-election to Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie. He then went on to win Burt at the 2016 election.

Candidates

  • Simone Collins (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Burt leans towards Labor, but is not entirely safe.

    2016 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Matt Keogh Labor 39,673 47.0 +15.1
    Matt O’Sullivan Liberal 29,836 35.4 -10.2
    Muhammad Salman Greens 6,770 8.0 +0.3
    Warnar Spyker Australian Christians 4,345 5.2 +1.6
    Ian Blevin Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 3,734 4.4 +4.4
    Informal 3,903 4.4

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Matt Keogh Labor 48,177 57.1 +13.2
    Matt O’Sullivan Liberal 36,181 42.9 -13.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three parts:

    • North-East – Gosnells, Huntingdale and Thornlie
    • North-West – Canning Vale and Southern River
    • South – Armadale, Kelmscott and Westfield

    The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 61.4% in the north-east and 64.5% in the south.

    The Liberal Party polled 51.8% in the north-west.

    Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    North-East 61.4 20,850 24.7
    North-West 48.2 20,267 24.0
    South 64.5 18,140 21.5
    Other votes 55.5 12,618 15.0
    Pre-poll 55.3 12,483 14.8

    Two-party-preferred votes in Burt at the 2016 federal election

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    3 COMMENTS

    1. At the very least, those swing booths in Canning Vale/Southern River will go red. On these boundaries, Burt will be a Labor-leaning seat barring Liberal landslides – the big notional margin was from Don Randall (R.I.P.)’s big personal vote – the fact that he, as a Liberal won Armadale says a LOT.

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