Brisbane – Australia 2019

LNP 6.0%

Incumbent MP
Trevor Evans, since 2016.

Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.

Redistribution
Brisbane lost part of Enoggera to Ryan. This change increased the LNP margin from 5.9% to 6%.

History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It has been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last election.

The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.

Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.

Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.

The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.

Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who held the seat for the next twenty years. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.

In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.

Gambaro won the seat in 2010 with a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected with a further 3.2% swing in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Brisbane has trended towards the LNP over the last few election cycles, to the point where the LNP polled almost half of primary votes in 2016. You’d expect the LNP to lose ground in the current political environment, but it may not be enough to overturn the result.

It’s worth noting that the Greens are only 6.6% behind Labor on primary votes, and they are running short-term senator (and former Democrats leader) Andrew Bartlett. His high profile could help push the Greens ahead of Labor, but it’ll take a lot of work for the Greens to win.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Trevor Evans Liberal National 46,97249.9+1.949.9
Pat O’Neill Labor 24,50026.0-4.125.9
Kirsten Lovejoy Greens 18,27919.4+5.119.4
John HumphreysLiberal Democrats1,9622.1+2.12.1
Mark VegarFamily First1,5971.7+0.81.7
Bridget ClinchVeterans Party9151.0+1.01.0
Informal2,3042.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Trevor Evans Liberal National 52,69355.9+1.656.0
Pat O’Neill Labor 41,53244.1-1.644.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas:

  • Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
  • North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
  • West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.9% in the centre to 60.4% in the north-east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 14.2% in the north-east to 23.5% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West22.952.321,27723.2
North East14.260.417,57719.1
Central23.550.914,55215.8
Other votes18.057.719,31321.0
Pre-poll18.758.219,12120.8

Election results in Brisbane at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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59 COMMENTS

  1. That Libs in trouble here is one of too many brush fires they face, even if most of them will fizzle out.

  2. John
    You do not expect to decide the winner of a horse race on betting odds why would anyone think they can predict an election result by betting odds.
    Ashgrove is predominantly a retirement suburb, it is overwealmingly a family suburb yet a few kilometres away is overwealmingly single flat dwellers with brothels strip clubs and night clubs. To the NE of the electorate is a zone of extreme wealth whilst there are still isolated undeveloped slums in inner city suburbs
    With private hostels one step higher than park bench surfing. This means that Brisbane is not easy to predict.
    I expect Andrew Bartlett to do well for Greens but to lose to Liberals but it will be a tight race. I hope I am wrong and Greens come third. One positive is that in a multi racial well heeled electorates the fascist groups do not stand a chance. I expect something like Keep Sydney Open to tear its head but the impact will be minimal due to suburban residents of Milton and Auchenclower wanting to shut Brisbane’s Lang Park down after dark. Drunken footballers a few times a year are far less intrusive than week in week out night venues.

    Any candidate worth their salt will be door knocking every house in electorate after all the seat is the smallest in Queensland with houses only 20 paces apart. Generally houses have small front yards and no dogs running free. Therefore safe and easy to door knock in. High value real estate especially frequently sold real estate leads to good coverage by colour free news magazines as well as throw away newspapers. I get feeling that news magazines more willing to publish local political pieces than Quest Papers.
    Interesting seat what is happening on the ground?

  3. 6% is a big ask but…………there is a swing to labour in QLD and swings are rarely uniform.
    It is quite possible for labour to win govt and miss out here
    The greens will have a very high vote here too….. this is caused at least partly by gentrification

  4. That green vote has surprised me a little – it seems more a youth vote than gentrification.

    OK there are the obvious trendy areas where you expect a strong Greens vote, but Lutwych!!!!!!

    I am wondering if it is QUT students from the Kelvin Grove campus or the many people in the medical professions who live close to RBH.

    However the pattern was repeated I think in the council election. Seems as if greens voters in Brisbane have shifted well into the “burbs

  5. Allot of Millennial’s living here according to Pollbludger, Will be a close one on election night since a huge number of them have turned their backs on the Liberals this time.

  6. Does Barlett have a chance to cause an upset here or will the ALP maintain a few % primary buffer over the Greens?

  7. Baring in mind, I wouldn’t Take federal results as serious implications for the state election. That is at the end of next year, The NSW state election was 2 months ago, So NSW was similar, But you have to remember my point about Split party voter’s where they vote Labor at state, But coalition at Federal. This is especially the case in QLD (And Vice versa at the moment in NSW) But in the QLD state election. Allot of those voters that voted LNP a few days ago are likely to switch back to Labor or at least consider voting for Labor, Shorten is unpopular in QLD. But the QLD state government still leads in the polls, ranging from 52-48 to 53-47. If the coalition wins the state election next year it will be close fought. It will be nothing like 2012. As long as she doesn’t screw up Adani like Shorten did, And as long as her message is more clear she will get large portions of those voters back Bill Shorten had lost, You get my point. Personally i expect Labor to win the next state election in a Hung parliament (minority) But its not common for Incumbent state governments to lose power when the opposing party is in Federally.

  8. @Daniel you are correct, Saturday’s result is not a given that LNP will win the next State election.

    Got to work at the same level from now and it will be close – yes, 2020 would never be a repeat of 2012, which probably wouldn’t be a good thing anyway.

    2020 election is Halloween… Fright Time! Mwa ha ha…

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