Brisbane – Australia 2019

LNP 6.0%

Incumbent MP
Trevor Evans, since 2016.

Geography
Central Brisbane. Brisbane covers the Brisbane CBD and inner suburbs north of the Brisbane River including Fortitude Valley, Paddington, Ashgrove, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Clayfield and Hendra.

Redistribution
Brisbane lost part of Enoggera to Ryan. This change increased the LNP margin from 5.9% to 6%.

History
Brisbane is an original federation electorate. It has been held by the ALP for most of its history interrupted by short periods of conservative MPs, up until the last election.

The seat was first won by Thomas Macdonald-Paterson, who joined the Protectionists when Parliament first sat. Macdonald-Paterson was not endorsed by the local Protectionists for the 1903 election, and the split in the protectionist vote gave the seat to the ALP’s Millice Culpin.

Culpin was himself defeated after one term by Justin Foxton of the Anti-Socialist Party (formerly the Free Traders). Foxton served as a minister from 1909 until his defeat at the 1910 election by the ALP’s William Finlayson.

Finlayson held the seat until 1919, when he was defeated by Donald Charles Cameron of the Nationalist Party. Cameron held the seat until 1931, when he lost the seat against the tide of conservative gains against the Scullin Government. Cameron returned to serve one term in the neighbouring seat of Lilley from 1934 to 1937.

The ALP held the seat continuously for the next fourty-four years, with only two MPs holding the seat from 1931 until 1975. George Lawson won the seat in 1931 and held it until 1961. He served as Minister for Transport from 1941 until the 1943 election. The seat was then held by Manfred Cross until his defeat by Liberal Peter Johnson in 1975. Johnson defeated Cross again in 1977 before Cross won the seat back in 1980.

Cross held the seat until his retirement in 1990, when the ALP chose Arch Bevis, who held the seat for the next twenty years. While Brisbane has never been held by a large margin, it came closest to being lost to the Liberals in 1996, when Bevis’ margin was cut to 0.36%.

In 2010, the Liberal National Party ran former MP Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro had served as member for the marginal seat of Petrie from 1996 until she was defeated in 2007.

Gambaro won the seat in 2010 with a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected with a further 3.2% swing in 2013.

Candidates

  • Andrew Bartlett (Greens)

Assessment
Brisbane has trended towards the LNP over the last few election cycles, to the point where the LNP polled almost half of primary votes in 2016. You’d expect the LNP to lose ground in the current political environment, but it may not be enough to overturn the result.

It’s worth noting that the Greens are only 6.6% behind Labor on primary votes, and they are running short-term senator (and former Democrats leader) Andrew Bartlett. His high profile could help push the Greens ahead of Labor, but it’ll take a lot of work for the Greens to win.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Trevor Evans Liberal National 46,97249.9+1.949.9
Pat O’Neill Labor 24,50026.0-4.125.9
Kirsten Lovejoy Greens 18,27919.4+5.119.4
John HumphreysLiberal Democrats1,9622.1+2.12.1
Mark VegarFamily First1,5971.7+0.81.7
Bridget ClinchVeterans Party9151.0+1.01.0
Informal2,3042.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Trevor Evans Liberal National 52,69355.9+1.656.0
Pat O’Neill Labor 41,53244.1-1.644.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas:

  • Central – Brisbane, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Spring Hill, Windsor.
  • North East – Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra, Stafford
  • West – Alderley, Ashgrove, Ithaca, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket, Paddington, Red Hill

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.9% in the centre to 60.4% in the north-east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 14.2% in the north-east to 23.5% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West22.952.321,27723.2
North East14.260.417,57719.1
Central23.550.914,55215.8
Other votes18.057.719,31321.0
Pre-poll18.758.219,12120.8

Election results in Brisbane at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.