Bowman – Australia 2019

LNP 7.1%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Laming, since 2004.

Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.

David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.

Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes. Even that slim margin was taken away from Laming by the 2010 redistribution, but a 10.4% swing towards the LNP saw Laming win the seat very comfortably. Laming was re-elected again in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Bowman is a reasonably safe LNP seat, although a landslide could mix things up.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Laming Liberal National 45,94649.8+0.5
Kim Richards Labor 29,59232.1+2.2
Brad Scott Greens 9,0129.8+3.8
Brett SaundersFamily First4,4594.8+2.7
Tony DuncanLiberty Alliance3,3163.6+3.6
Informal3,6543.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Laming Liberal National 52,690 57.1 -1.8
Kim Richards Labor 39,635 42.9 +1.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies on the mainland, at the western end of the seat. These polling places have been split into west, south and central. The remaining polling places on the islands have been grouped together.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the three most populous areas, ranging from 52.5% in the west to 59.1% in the centre. Labor won 51.5% on the islands.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.1% in the centre to 12.8% on the islands.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West10.752.522,66724.6
Central10.159.110,98211.9
South-East10.256.410,09910.9
Islands12.848.53,8874.2
Other votes10.157.412,76213.8
Pre-poll8.460.731,92834.6

Election results in Bowman at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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