Bowman – Australia 2019

LNP 7.1%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Laming, since 2004.

Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.

David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.

Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes. Even that slim margin was taken away from Laming by the 2010 redistribution, but a 10.4% swing towards the LNP saw Laming win the seat very comfortably. Laming was re-elected again in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • Tom Baster (Labor)
  • Andrew Laming (Liberal National)
  • Assessment
    Bowman is a reasonably safe LNP seat, although a landslide could mix things up.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Andrew Laming Liberal National 45,94649.8+0.5
    Kim Richards Labor 29,59232.1+2.2
    Brad Scott Greens 9,0129.8+3.8
    Brett SaundersFamily First4,4594.8+2.7
    Tony DuncanLiberty Alliance3,3163.6+3.6
    Informal3,6543.8

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Andrew Laming Liberal National 52,690 57.1 -1.8
    Kim Richards Labor 39,635 42.9 +1.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies on the mainland, at the western end of the seat. These polling places have been split into west, south and central. The remaining polling places on the islands have been grouped together.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the three most populous areas, ranging from 52.5% in the west to 59.1% in the centre. Labor won 51.5% on the islands.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.1% in the centre to 12.8% on the islands.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    West10.752.522,66724.6
    Central10.159.110,98211.9
    South-East10.256.410,09910.9
    Islands12.848.53,8874.2
    Other votes10.157.412,76213.8
    Pre-poll8.460.731,92834.6

    Election results in Bowman at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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    7 COMMENTS

    1. Peter

      2PPV appears to be correct and candidates are correct according to the AEC Pocket Book. I have not checked web site.

      I have my disagreements with Ben but I have yet to see him factually wrong.

      Bowman is safe for Laming.

      In 2013 he ran a very active local campaign. Only time I have seen an old derelict Queenslander type House repainted as an election sign. Far more effective than a Billboard.

      Ben’s comment about a Landslide id dependent on their being a landslide. I have seen no one predict a landslide in fact all predictions are for a very close election. They only question that there seems to be is will the swing to ALP be great enough to oust Turnbull. My prediction YES ALP will win election but Laming will not be one of the casualties.

      The Green vote on the Islands will be impacted by the unemployed on Stradbroke Island. Stradbroke has moved from being a Sand Mining centre with employment being Blue Collar labourers and machine operators in Sand Mining to a totally Tourist based economy with Service sector jobs nearly all being seasonal , temporary, part time and casual. Unemployment is highest in Dunwich and Amity and under employment rampant in all three settlements on the Island. The future for Island has been wiped out by Greenie policies infiltrating into ALP/ Qld Government policy. Mining employed Islanders (both white and aborigines) Tourism Service Sector jobs mainly nomadic mainlanders especially non voting Scandinavian German backpackers. I predict a decline in Green votes on Stradbroke especially in settlements of Amity and Dunwich. These settlements are small and the high levels of unemployment have probably led to emigration.

      I have been holidaying on Stradbroke Island for thirty years and at Easter this year it was the first time ever that I can not recall seeing a shop notice board sign for a island worker seeking accommodation. Accommodation in Dunwich and Amity must now be available for the Cooks bottle-washers and cleaners employed at Point Lookout. This is assign of a economy in recession.

      Andrew Jackson
      apjackson@hotkey.net.au

    2. Dr Laming is one of those terribly entertaining pollies, that follows saying something interesting, & relevant, with something incredibly silly !!.
      Either way he is no oxygen thief. He adds a little colour, & so on.
      It appears he has made this electorate his own. Being reduced to 64 votes is going to the brink. It is very difficult to see how Bowman could come into play.

    3. Andrew Jackson
      Thankyou for such an interesting post. Do you think sand mining should have ceased ? What was the reality in terms of damage caused ? Or was it sustainable ?
      Btw your prediction of the election result (& mine too!), will be blown out of the water, if what happened yesterday comes to pass. I am referring to that moron Penny Wong’s idea, about having a 90 day limit on off- shore processing !. If ever there was something to inflame the electorate….. What an idiot.
      Don’t these pollies talk to normal people ? In any case it illustrates why the Labor conference later this year will be so crucial

    4. Wine Diamond
      No I would have continued Sand Mining.

      If one looks at the areas around Amity which thirty years ago looked like a moon scape they now look no different from rest of Island.

      Clearly on an island mining is not sustainable.

      I agree that immigration has the potential to blow the election predictions out of the water. The electorate would vote overwhelmingly to ban some immigration andf they are not particularly moderate in their views. Penny Wong should remember the famous quote by her Parties leader Arthur Caldwell and remember that the electorate that he was appealing to is still in existence although most are cowed by Racial Discrimination laws.

      This issue is the reason why Ashby- Hanson Party has reared its head. One meeting I went to organised by a fringe group (not PHON) that I attended before the last election was similar in format to the Nuremburg Rallies. They exuded hate which could quite easily be turned into violent hate. ALP Branches should pull Wong into line. Austarlian at the weekend put ALP membership at about 53K. These members need to remember that ALP will only be the Government if the majority of Australian s vote for them. Talk to the electorate and pass that on.

      By the way I support a non discriminatory migration policy with two proviso’s Both Toleration and Integration should be mandatory and failure to tolerate or failure to integrate should have known and enforced consequences. Part of the community’s responsibility is to help integration and doing so increase toleration.

      I grew up in East Africa and at one stage attended a school with three European Boys and 350 Goans (predominantly half Portuguese half Indian Christians) , Hindu’s, Swahili (half Arab half African) along with Sikhs and a few Native Africans.

    5. Albeit a 7.1% margin, I wouldn’t rule out this out for Labor. Laming has been a terrible MP and the Labor candidate seems to have a strong base of support behind him.

      One to watch!

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