Aston – Australia 2019

LIB 7.4%

Incumbent MP
Alan Tudge, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Aston’s boundaries align with the Knox local government area. Suburbs include Bayswater, Boronia, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Wantirna and Rowville.

Redistribution
Aston expanded slightly to the east, taking in Upper Ferntree Gully from La Trobe, bringing the seat’s boundaries in line with the council boundary. This change cut the Liberal margin from 8.6% to 7.4%.

History
Aston was first created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has tended to be a marginal seat, although the seat has been consistently held by the Liberal Party for the last two decades.

Aston was first won in 1984 by ALP candidate John Saunderson, who had previously been elected to Deakin at the 1983 election. Saunderson held on with a smaller margin in 1987 before losing with a 7% swing at the 1990 election.

The seat was won in 1990 by Peter Nugent (LIB). Nugent was known as a moderate Liberal who supported human rights issues. He was reelected with a slim margin in 1993 and pushed his margin out to almost 6% in 1996, and was re-elected again in 1998. Nugent died in April 2001 of a heart attack, triggering the Aston by-election.

The Howard government was not performing strongly in the first half of 2001, having seen disastrous results in state elections in Queensland and Western Australia and the loss of the blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan in another federal by-election.

The Liberal Party’s candidate, Chris Pearce, managed to hold on with 50.6% of the vote, limiting the anti-Liberal swing to 3.7%, which was seen as a strong result for the government, and the beginning of the turnaround which saw the Howard government returned at the 2001 election.

Pearce was reelected with just over 56% in 2001, and pushed his margin to over 63% in 2004, the largest victory margin in Aston’s history. Pearce was again re-elected in 2007, although his margin was cut to 5%.

In 2010, Pearce retired and the Liberal Party’s Alan Tudge won the seat with a reduced margin. Tudge was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Aston is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Alan Tudge Liberal 43,53250.9-0.749.4
Paul Klisaris Labor 26,59331.1-1.631.0
Steve Raymond Greens 7,1868.4+2.59.0
Daniel Edward MartinFamily First2,7623.2+0.53.2
Rosemary LavinAnimal Justice2,2112.6+2.62.6
Daniel HuppertIndependent2,1042.5+2.52.2
Joel MooreLiberal Democrats1,1981.4+1.41.4
Others1.2
Informal3,5254.0

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Alan Tudge Liberal 50,14258.6+0.457.4
Paul Klisaris Labor 35,44441.4-0.442.6

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Aston have been divided into four parts.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 54.9% in the centre to 59.7% in the south. Labor polled 50.4% in the north-east.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South59.717,43718.0
North-West58.614,83315.3
Central54.914,65315.1
North-East49.611,13611.5
Other votes59.516,35116.9
Pre-poll58.822,54723.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Aston at the 2016 federal election

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17 COMMENTS

  1. My old seat. It’s quite a big demographic change in this part of Melbourne since I was young. Parts of Wantirna and Rowville are now pretty affluent and desirable addresses.

    Liberals should have no problems in the short term, although it might become interesting again if the seat continues to push up into the mountains.

  2. Given the results in Bayswater and Ferntree Gully at the November election, Aston could be close.

    Still think Alan Tudge starts the favourite.

  3. This is definitely in play, And the state election proved that, The dumping of turnbull played a big part of why the mood of the voters in these type of electorates are swining heavily against them, Menzies is in play as well because of Conservative Dutton backing Kevin Andrews. Im not sure who Tudge backed in the spill i would have to check that, But no matter who he backed this seat is in play. It will be decided by under 2 points either way, But if Labor wins this they are certainly heading for over 90 lower house seats, Meaning a 1996 result but reversed parties

  4. The state election showed that the City of Knox is Liberal heartland nowadays. Aston is made up of Rowville, Ferntree Gully and about half of Bayswater (plus a tiny bit of Monbulk).

    Even at a very low ebb, the Liberals retained the former two and barely lost the latter.

    Alan Tudge is unlikely to be troubled.

  5. I’ve lived in this seat for 14 years & I honestly do not see labor gaining this seat. I’ve never ever seen the labor candidate campaigning in this federal seat, so labors chances of gaining this seat are unlikely. The results will most likely echo the 2010, with the seat becoming a marginal liberal seat.

  6. Seems like a stretch goal at best for Labor. Think labor will be putting their resources towards other Victorian marginals like Chisholm, Deakin etc.

  7. Alan Tudge was part of the BS with Turnbull leaving, my opinion of him has going down completely.
    No real local benefits with sticking with lib
    If labor campaigned in this seat maybe they would win it.

  8. This area may be the equivalent of Sydney’s Hills District. If it were located in Sydney no doubt the LNP’s 2PP would be even higher. Hillsong must be big in this area as they are in the Hills District as they recently opened a very large ‘church’ on the Burwood Hwy in Wantirna South, relocating from a smaller location in Bayswater, also in this electorate. So perhaps this is Melbourne’s conservative Bible Belt. Though the far east around Ferntree Gully/Boronia/The Basin mightn’t fit this description as much being at the foothills of the Dandenongs. Still, there will be a decent swing here, not sure if it will be enough to unseat Tudge though.

  9. Alan Tudge supported Dutton and deserted Turnbull. He was one of the 43 who supported a spill in the leadership.

  10. Alan Tudge’s face is everywhere – think it’s an easy Liberal retain but a swing to Labor. Maybe 3-5%? Rowville and the Knox area are likely to be what holds it for him.

  11. Yes, I drove from Ferntree Gully to Rowville last week, a distance of 6km, and counted 16 Alan Tudge signs, and only one for Pethiyagoda.
    Ferntreee Gully, Upper Ferntree Gully, Boronia, Bayswater, Scoresby and Knoxfield will all vote Labor this time around, but the strength of the Liberal party in Wantirna, Wantirna South and Rowville/Lysterfield will easily be enough for Tudge to retain the seat.

  12. I have lived and voted in aston my entire life, I moved to Wills 2 years ago. I still travel to and work in Aston, as a 46 year old man all I have wanted is an easy transit to kellets/Napoleon road, why just befoe an election does this government take the option of crossing corhanwarrabul creek at henderson road?, a road in an industrial estate. Doreset Road extension and land was set aside for this, this gutless goverment, that can’t use the assets set aside for it to appease voters is a disgrace. I am a worker, employed by business who at the end of the day just wants to go home. Henderson road at the best of times is busy, when everyone finishes work it is flat out. what happens now when traffic is funneled through to Rowville through this corridor? If you think we are all morons keep this up. At the end of the day 2 party politics is being found out for the fraud it is. Alan Tudge you were not born in the area and have not lived and worked there for an acceptable ammount of time, you know nothing of the divide and flow of the area, the adhoc solution, whilst opening up the creek, flows traffic through a single point that already is busy.

  13. Interesting thoughts, seems like most people are thinking in terms of two party politics. Has anyone emerged from the background that seems likely the garner a few votes from the frustration at both major parties?

  14. Another swing to the Liberals, confirming my old childhood stamping ground is pretty rock-solid Liberal these days. A few of the remaining red booths are slowly turning bluer and bluer, reflecting the increasing affluence of even the ‘poorer’ parts of Knox.

    Aston now has the largest Liberal margin in urban Melbourne.

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