Whitlam – Australia 2016

ALP 6.9%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Jones, member for Throsby since 2010.

Geography
Southern Illawarra and Southern Highlands of NSW. Whitlam covers the entirety of the Shellharbour council area along with southern parts of the City of Wollongong. These suburbs mostly surround Lake Illawarra, including Shellharbour, Dapto and Albion Park. It also includes distinct areas in the Southern Highlands, covering the most populated parts of Wingecarribee Shire, stretching as far west as the Hume Highway and covering Bowral, Mittagong and Moss Vale.

Map of Whitlam's 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Whitlam’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Whitlam, compared to the former seat of Throsby, gained southern parts of the Shellharbour council area from Glmore, including Shellharbour, Shell Cove, Dunmore and Barrack Heights. Whitlam lost Port Kembla to Cunningham and lost Exeter to Hume. These changes cut the Labor margin from 7.8% to 6.9%.

History
Whitlam is a new name for the seat of Throsby, which was first created for the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP. It has always been won by the ALP by a large margin, with well over 60% at every election since 1993.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Colin Hollis. Hollis had previously been elected in Macarthur for one term in 1983. Hollis retired in 2001, and was succeeded by former ACTU President Jennie George. George held the seat from 2001 to 2010.

In 2010, Stephen Jones won the seat for the ALP upon Jennie George’s retirement. Jones was re-elected in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Whitlam is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Stephen Jones Labor 37,980 45.0 -5.5 43.9
Larissa Mallinson Liberal 23,498 27.8 -2.5 30.2
Gary Anderson Nationals 8,539 10.1 +4.8 8.8
Peter Moran Greens 4,613 5.5 -6.5 5.8
May Lee King Palmer United Party 3,885 4.6 +4.6 4.8
Paul Matters Independent 1,948 2.3 +2.3 1.9
John Kadwell Christian Democratic Party 1,938 2.3 +2.3 2.6
Elrond Veness Bullet Train For Australia 677 0.8 +0.8 0.7
Glenn Turner Katter’s Australian Party 473 0.6 +0.6 0.5
Wayne Hartman Non-Custodial Parents 435 0.5 -1.4 0.4
Brian Boulton Democratic Labour Party 407 0.5 +0.5 0.4
Informal 8,174 9.7

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Stephen Jones Labor 48,753 57.8 -4.3 56.9
Larissa Mallinson Liberal 35,640 42.2 +4.3 43.1
Polling places in Whitlam at the 2013 federal election. Shellharbour in green, Southern Highlands in blue, Wollongong in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Whitlam at the 2013 federal election. Shellharbour in green, Southern Highlands in blue, Wollongong in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries. Those polling places in Wingecarribee Shire have been grouped as Southern Highlands. Polling places in the City of Wollongong have been grouped as Wollongong. The remainder is in Shellharbour.

The ALP won a two-party-preferred vote well over 60% in both Shellharbour (62.5%) and Wollongong (66%), while the Liberal Party won almost 60% after preferences in the Southern Highlands.

The Nationals came third, with a vote ranging from 6.3% in Shellharbour to 15.3% in the southern highlands.

Voter group NAT % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Shellharbour 6.3 62.5 25,156 28.0
Wollongong 9.5 66.0 17,999 20.0
Southern Highlands 15.3 40.6 12,453 13.8
Other votes 7.9 52.6 34,326 38.2
Two-party-preferred votes in Whitlam at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Whitlam at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in eastern Whitlam at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in eastern Whitlam at the 2013 federal election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Another one bites the dust. The Mosman based Liberal candidate has quit the race citing a lack of support. You wonder how it is that (a) she can be so oblivious to the reality of running in a safe opposition seat and (b) why the Libs can’t find a local.

    With the Nats standing a candidate, the Libs may not even bother to replace her.

  2. As for why they can’t find a local, according to the erstwhile candidate “At the moment there are no Liberal Party branches in the Illawarra and there are only three in the Highlands.”.

    So there’s probably only about 60 or so active local party members, it’s not really surprising they couldn’t find any of them who wanted to take the time out from their day job to run a campaign with negligible chance of success.

  3. “At the moment there are no Liberal Party branches in the Illawarra”

    What, despite holding the state seat of Kiama? That’s a bit slack of them. The local MP there clearly isn’t very good at branch-stacking.

  4. DW
    Stephen Jones was on Beatty, & Reith last night. He was immensely self-satisfied at the withdrawal of the lib candidate. That is understandable.

    Jones is the assistant shadow health spokesperson. He spent the entire interview droning on about Abbott’s ‘” cuts” to the health budget. When confronted with the reality that health SPENDING had increased 11 – 20 % P/A ( medicare – hospital ) he didn’t deny, merely obfuscated.

    With such dedication to accept the reality of the un – sustainability of the increasing spending on health, 2 things are inevitable.

    1/ Co – payments
    2/ means testing.

    The incredibly mediocre Jones seems intent on spending until the money runs out, instead of looking for other solutions.

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