ALP 7.4%
Incumbent MP
Jill Hall, since 1998.
Geography
Lake Macquarie and Central Coast regions of New South Wales. Shortland covers the suburbs of Lake Macquarie council on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, as well as northeastern suburbs of Wyong LGA. Key suburbs include Belmont, Charlestown, Cardiff, Warners Bay, Gateshead, Swansea, Budgewoi and Lake Munmorah.
Redistribution
Shortland moved north, gaining Cardiff, Speers Point, Macquarie Hills, Lakelands, Warners Bay and Boolaroo from Charlton, and lost Lake Haven to Dobell. These changes increased the Labor margin from 7.2% to 7.4%.
History
Shortland was created in 1949, and has always been a safe Labor seat, with the ALP polling over 60% at every election except for six elections when the Liberal Party polled very well nationally (1966, 1975, 1977, 1996, 2001, 2004).
The seat was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Charles Griffiths, an official for the Australian Railways Union. Griffiths held the seat for the entirety of the 1950s and 1960s, and retired in 1972. He was replaced in 1972 by Peter Morris. Morris served as a junior minister from the election of the Hawke government in 1983 until he was promoted to Cabinet in 1988. He was dropped from Cabinet in 1990 due to lack of factional support and retired in 1998.
The seat was won in 1998 by Jill Hall, who had been elected to the state seat of Swansea in 1995. Hall has held the seat for six terms.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jill Hall is not running for re-election, although Labor candidate Pat Conroy is the sitting MP for the abolished neighbouring seat of Charlton.
- Pat Conroy (Labor)
- Jenny Barrie (Liberal)
- Ivan MacFadyen (Greens)
- Morgan Cox (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Shortland is a safe Labor seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jill Hall | Labor | 41,892 | 48.7 | -5.1 | 48.1 |
| John Church | Liberal | 32,532 | 37.8 | +4.7 | 36.5 |
| Phil Baldwin | Palmer United Party | 5,341 | 6.2 | +6.2 | 6.9 |
| Jane Oakley | Greens | 5,198 | 6.0 | -4.3 | 6.3 |
| Andrew Weatherstone | Christian Democratic Party | 1,081 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.6 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 5,498 | 6.4 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jill Hall | Labor | 49,230 | 57.2 | -5.6 | 57.4 |
| John Church | Liberal | 36,814 | 42.8 | +5.6 | 42.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas: Cardiff-Warners Bay in the north-west, Charlestown in the north-east, and then from north to south Belmont, Swansea and Wyong. The “Wyong” area covers those polling places in Wyong Shire, with the remaining polling places in the City of Lake Macquarie.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 54.7% in Belmont to 61.3% in Charlestown.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Charlestown | 61.3 | 16,493 | 17.3 |
| Cardiff-Warners Bay | 56.3 | 16,449 | 17.3 |
| Belmont | 54.7 | 14,399 | 15.1 |
| Wyong | 57.5 | 13,875 | 14.6 |
| Swansea | 60.1 | 8,948 | 9.4 |
| Other votes | 55.6 | 25,128 | 26.4 |
I am surprised by the height of the Liberal vote here pre-redistribution. It’s nearly cracked 40% which seems unusual for a seat in the area.
The seat is located right on both the coast and the lake…I would imagine that eventually some of the communities here will attract a more affluent demographic of retirees and Sydney sea-changers. Perhaps it is slowly becoming more like a Central Coast seat than a Hunter one?
Wreathy,
The Libs won Swansea and Charlestown – which together is Shortland, more or less – in the O’Farrell-slide of 2011. So these voters are capable of going Liberal, in a favourable environment.
MM and DW thanks for the replies!
@MM this does seem like a reasonable explanation to me. Yet despite this, the Libs won hardly any booths at all here, curious indeed!
@DW while I was aware of Liberal success at the state level, I was kind of discounting that since both seats were only won on very slim margins even with the landslide of landslides in an political environment that is likely not to occur again for another century.
DW
The libs won Swansea only, because of the stench of Milton Orkopoulos.
Charlestown was 60-40 in 2011, not exactly close. The Libs would have stood a good chance of retaining the seat, if not for the ICAC mess.
Swansea was a much more tenuous 51-49. But the result had little to do with Orkopoulos, who departed in 2007.
DW
Sorry i disagree. MO left a mark.
My prediction: Easy Labor hold for Pat Conroy.