Rankin – Australia 2016

ALP 4.8%

Incumbent MP
Jim Chalmers, since 2013.

Geography
Rankin covers suburbs in both the City of Brisbane and the City of Logan in the southern parts of the greater Brisbane region. Suburbs include Algester, Calamvale, Hillcrest, Regents Park, Heritage Park, Crestmead, Kingston, Chatswood Hills and Springwood.

History
The seat of Rankin was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been held by the Labor Party. It originally covered Beaudesert and the Gold Coast hinterland but it has gradually moved into safer areas closer to Brisbane.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor MP David Beddall. Beddall had won the marginal seat of Fadden off the Liberal Party in 1983 before moving to Rankin. Beddall joined the Hawke ministry after the 1990 election and joined the Labor cabinet after the 1993 election, serving as a cabinet minister until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. He retired from Rankin in 1998.

Rankin was won in 1998 by Labor candidate Craig Emerson. Emerson held Rankin for the next fifteen years. Emerson joined the Labor shadow ministry following the 2001 election, and served as a minister from 2007 to 2013.

Emerson retired at the 2013 election, and Labor candidate Jim Chalmers retained the seat.

Candidates

  • Jim Chalmers (Labor)
  • Ric Davies (Liberal Democrats)
  • Neil Cotter (Greens)
  • Shane Holley (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Jeffrey Hodges (Consumer Rights & No-Tolls)
  • Freya Ostapovitch (Liberal National)
  • Chris Lawrie (Family First)

Assessment
Labor should retain Rankin, and benefit from Chalmers’ new incumbency.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jim Chalmers Labor 35,098 42.2 -3.0
David Lin Liberal National 30,260 36.4 -0.7
William Tracy Rogan Palmer United Party 9,228 11.1 +11.1
Neil Cotter Greens 4,405 5.3 -5.9
Chris Lawrie Family First 2,514 3.0 -3.5
Chris Claydon Katter’s Australian Party 1,697 2.0 +2.0
Informal 5,840 7.0

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jim Chalmers Labor 45,580 54.8 -0.6
David Lin Liberal National 37,622 45.2 +0.6
Polling places in Rankin at the 2013 federal election. East in green, North-East in yellow, South in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Rankin at the 2013 federal election. East in green, North-East in yellow, South in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Polling places have been split into four geographic areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as “west”. Booths in the City of Logan have been split into South, East and North-East.

The ALP won solid majorities around 62% in the south and east. The Liberal Party narrowly won 50.7% in the west and 52.6% in the north-east.

The Palmer United Party’s vote ranged from 8.6% in the west to 16% in the south.

Voter group PUP % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 16.0 62.1 15,587 18.7
East 11.5 61.6 14,682 17.6
West 8.6 49.3 13,798 16.6
North-East 9.8 47.4 11,212 13.5
Other votes 9.9 52.8 27,923 33.6
Two-party-preferred votes in Rankin at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Rankin at the 2013 federal election.

13 COMMENTS

  1. Labor to retain with a big swing towards them, Ostapovitch was abject failure in her time as a state MP, only ever got in on the wave of support for Newman in 2012. Chalmers may well be a future Labor frontbencher though

  2. Have to agree, David Lin was a high energy and high profile candidate. Had his signage everywhere and attended heaps of community events. I can’t see Freya coming anywhere near that.

  3. Agree with both comments above. I predict it’ll be the biggest swing to Labor in QLD. Chalmers has been an exceptional MP in his first term and a brilliant frontbencher for Labor. I think he could go all the way and lead Labor one day.

    Ostapovitch is so far out of her league it isn’t funny.

  4. PRP
    What are some of the examples of Jim’s brilliance as a frontbencher ??? I can easily believe he is a high energy MP, & loud advocate for Rankin.

  5. PRP
    Chalmers was on PM Agenda (Sky ) today . 15 minute interview.
    The subjects were mainly superannuation, negative gearing, & some other opposition policy.
    I know a lot about superannuation. I’v’e been a trustee for nearly 30 years. When Chalmers says our ( super ) system is the envy of the world, he might just look across the Tasman !!!.
    It is absolutely not. What our system (especially industry super) is, is a huge “milch cow” for the unions, the political class , & ex labor figures. A revolting perversion of the first order.

    Everything, & i mean everything he said was to at least some extent , if not totally – False , Deceptive, & Misleading.
    Either the bloke is ignorant, & blind, & therefore an incompetent fool.
    Or he is an unprincipled political animal. , & a complete, & utter fraud.
    It must be one or the other

    Everthing he sais on the negative gearing policy was as irrelevant , & ineffectual, as the policy itself!!!.
    IF labor had ANY real intent or purpose they would simply introduce a tax on 2nd, or 3rd mortgages, as other nations have, & do.
    However ,they absolutely lack the stones, or conviction to do anything that authentic, & genuine.

    So mate i’m VFF from impressed with the bloke.

  6. There is a third possibility, which is that he is right and you are wrong.

    Ultimately it would seem to matter little in terms of the outcome in this electorate anyway, given that it’s unlikely that a significant proportion of the electorate of Ranking share your strongly-held views about superannuation and negative gearing.

  7. kme
    Perhaps you have missed a reality here.
    Rather than offer opinion as fact, i favour the alternative.

    This is namely,the gathering of factual information, which is then subjected to a rigorous examination, & then conclusions are drawn from this. That is what shapes my views. Not sentiment, belief, or any other perverse indulgences.

    Sure i can get it wrong, & i’m always fascinated as to why , & how. i always want to learn more. However i’m certain that there is no rational argument to be had WRT the judgement i made here.

    You may have also missed, that i ask a lot of questions, & make few judgements. However if a judgement is found, it’s arrived at slowly & with the coldness of a mother in-laws kiss !!.

    You are probably correct that the voters of Rankin care little about superannuation, or negative gearing policies.
    However as you also well know that is hardly the point is it ??

    It was not the point i was making, as you are well aware. !!. Do try & be a little less defensive, & more open minded.

  8. You must allow for the possibility that your fact-gathering may be incomplete, your examination may be inexhaustive, your reasoning may be mistaken and therefore your conclusions, no matter how certainly held, may be flawed. Therefore you must also allow that “incompetent” and “malicious” are not the only two options for the candidate whose comments you disagree with.

    I was not being defensive, I was trying to steer the thread back on-topic, which I believe is about the potential result in this seat at the upcoming election.

  9. This should swing back to Labor, increasing their margin in the seat substantially.

    What may be interesting is the results to the east of the Pacific Motorway. Springwood was one of the state seats that the LNP won on first preferences. So booths like the blue 60 may stay blue? I guess this would be contingent on people voting for the party regardless of the candidate though. Wishful thinking on my part?

  10. When considering the two candidates representing the major parties – Labor and Liberal, our main choices are now between Jim Chalmers (Labor) and Freya Ostapovitch (Liberal).
    I discovered that Jim Chalmer’s life experience comes from first gaining a University qualification in Commerce, then as a Labor party organisation worker from 1997, in NSW and for Wayne Swan in Brisbane, and then as a Director of the Chifley Research Centre in Canberra, which is the Labor party’s policy think tank organisation. He was elected to represent Labor in Rankin in 2013.
    Jim Chalmers has had no life-work experience in the real world or in Logan. His whole working life to date has been within the Labor party, not out and about like me and my family, or the majority of working families in Logan. How can Jim honestly say he can represent us when he has had no experience of what it’s like to be in a working class family living in Logan?
    So I have looked at the life-work experience of the other major party candidate – Freya Ostapovitch, representing the Liberal National Party in Rankin, to ascertain her values.
    Does she also come from a working class family background similar to the majority of working families in Logan?
    I have found out that Freya’s Dutch/German parents migrated from Europe to Australia like many immigrants, with nothing but a suitcase and a head full of dreams for a better life. Through hard work and sacrifice they have realized a better life for their family and for their child.
    That child is Freya Ostapovitch.
    She studied hard and became a psychiatric nurse. She married and had 2 children, one who became a Doctor. Freya also started a School and Sports Photography business, which became the second largest in Queensland. She went on to become president of the Loganlea Community Centre, and vice-president of the Logan Chamber of Commerce.
    Freya was elected as the State MP for Stretton from 2012 to 2015. During that time she was responsible for a number of achievements for Logan including having 2 additional lanes added to the M1, and having funding approved in the Qld State Budget to upgrade the Gateway/ Mi merger, that is yet to become a reality.
    I know that there will be those amongst us who are “rusted on” Labor supporters, who still think that the Labor party is best suited to look after working families. I believe that these poor people have been conned over the years, and have been taken for granted in Logan. Because Jim Chalmers and his mates think that Rankin is a safe Labor Federal seat, they have done nothing to improve our lifestyle or job prospects. They think that they will just get re-elected year after year even if they do nothing. Jim Chalmers has not experienced the same struggles that most of us from working class families in Logan experience every day. He is a career politician.
    In this election I will be voting for Freya Ostapovitch, the LNP candidate for Rankin, because she has similar values to me and my working class family in Logan. Freya has a proven track record out and about, and I think we can trust her to deliver for us in Rankin.

  11. I find it hilarious that DB from Logan is suggesting that working in the Labor Party doesn’t qualify as work. Apparently, you can’t be working class and work for the Labor Party. And apparently, being connected to the Labor Party automatically means you’re a “career politician”. Yet I’m betting that equivalent people in the LNP don’t get the same arguments.

    Let me guess – you work for the LNP, right, DB from Logan? Because you just wrote up a long spiel that sounds like nothing more than political propaganda.

  12. So, I learned something concerning, tonight.

    Apparently, someone is paying people $50 for photographic evidence that they voted for KAP in Rankin. I’m assuming it’s illegal, at the very least it’s quite immoral. Don’t know if it’s being done by KAP themselves or by some overzealous supporter.

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