Newcastle – Australia 2016

ALP 9.4%

Incumbent MP
Sharon Claydon, since 2013.

Geography
The seat of Newcastle covers most of the City of Newcastle, and a small part of the Lake Macquarie council area. Major suburbs include Newcastle, Hamilton, Merewether, Lambton, Kotara, Adamstown, Mayfield, Maryland, Wallsend and Waratah.

Map of Newcastle's 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Newcastle’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Newcastle shifted south, gaining Maryland and Wallsend from Charlton, and losing sparsely populated northern parts of Newcastle to Paterson. These changes increased the Labor margin from 8.8% to 9.4%.

History
Newcastle is an original federation electorate, and has been held by the ALP for its entire history. Indeed, the seat has only ever been held by five people in 110 years.

The seat was first won in 1901 by David Watkins, a former coal-miner and state member for the seat of Wallsend. Watkins held Newcastle for decades until his death in 1935. He was succeeded at a 1935 by-election by his son David Oliver Watkins. Watkins junior held the seat for another twenty-three years, retiring in 1958.

After being held for 57 years by members of the Watkins family, Newcastle was won in 1958 by Charles Jones, then the Lord Mayor of Newcastle. Jones went on to serve as Gough Whitlam’s Minister for Transport from 1972 to 1975. He retired in 1983, and was succeeded by Allan Morris.

Morris held the seat for eighteen years, and was succeeded at the 2001 by former school principal Sharon Grierson, who held the seat for the next twelve years.

Labor’s Sharon Claydon was elected in Newcastle in 2013.

Candidates

  • Sharon Claydon (Labor)
  • David Compton (Liberal)
  • John Mackenzie (Greens)
  • Stuart Southwell (Democratic Labour)
  • Karen Burge (Drug Law Reform)
  • Rod Holding (Independent)
  • Milton Caine (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
Newcastle is a safe Labor seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Sharon Claydon Labor 37,391 43.7 -4.2 44.2
Jaimie Abbott Liberal 29,632 34.7 +3.3 33.1
Michael Osborne Greens 10,258 12.0 -3.5 11.5
Yegon McLellan Palmer United Party 3,518 4.1 +4.1 5.2
Milton Caine Christian Democratic Party 1,091 1.3 -0.5 1.8
Susanna Scurry Independent 1,026 1.2 +1.2 0.9
Michael Chehoff Australia First 922 1.1 +1.1 0.8
Rod Holding Independent 674 0.8 +0.8 0.6
Zane Alcorn Socialist Alliance 616 0.7 -0.3 0.6
Lawrence Higgins Australian Independents 367 0.4 +0.4 0.3
Others 1.0
Informal 5,653 6.6

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Sharon Claydon Labor 50,298 58.8 -3.7 59.4
Jaimie Abbott Liberal 35,197 41.2 +3.7 40.6
Polling places in Newcastle at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, East in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Newcastle at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, East in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 58.7% in the east to 63% in the west.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 8% in the west to 16% in the east.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 16.4 58.7 24,035 24.8
Central 11.8 61.7 23,805 24.6
West 8.0 62.8 22,257 23.0
Other votes 9.8 54.4 26,800 27.7
Two-party-preferred votes in Newcastle at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Newcastle at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Newcastle at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Newcastle at the 2013 federal election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Looking at the numbers; this seat seems like the NSW equivalent of Corio – centred in a large regional city about an hour outside of the state capital, with safe TPP for Labor but with a relatively low primary vote, a handful of booths where the Libs outpoll Labor on a TPP basis, and a cluster of booths where the Greens poll well (albeit they poll better in Newcastle then they do in Corio) relative to the rest of the electorate.

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