Moore – Australia 2016

LIB 12.4%

Incumbent MP
Ian Goodenough, since 2013.

Geography
Northern Perth. Moore covers suburbs along the coast on the northern fringe of Perth, including Hillarys, Sorrento, Mullaloo, Ocean Reef, Joondalup, Kinross, Kingsley and Woodvale.

Map of Moore's 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Moore’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Moore lost its northernmost suburbs of Clarkson, Carramar, Mindarie and Neerabup to Pearce, and gained Woodvale and Kingsley from Cowan. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 11.9% to 12.4%.

History
Moore was created for the 1949 election, and has been dominated by conservative parties for most of its history. It has been held by the Country Party or Liberal Party for most of that period, although it was won by the ALP at three elections in the 1980s and was retained by a former Liberal independent in the 1990s.

Moore was first won in 1949 by the Country Party’s Hugh Leslie, a former state MP. Leslie held the seat until 1958, when he lost the seat to the Liberal Party’s Hugh Halbert. Leslie won the seat back in 1961, and retired in 1963.

Donald Maisey won the seat for the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat for the next decade, and lost in 1974 to the Liberal Party’s John Hyde. Hyde helped form ‘the Dries’ as a group of Liberal backbenchers supporting mass privatisations and deregulation, and was highly critical of the Fraser government. Hyde lost his seat in 1983.

The ALP’s Allen Blanchard won Moore in 1983, and held the seat until the 1990 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Paul Filing.

Paul Filing was re-elected in 1993, but in 1995 he lost Liberal endorsement for Moore, and he became an independent. He managed to win re-election in 1996, but he lost the seat in 1998 to Liberal candidate Mal Washer.

Washer was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010, and retired in 2013. Washer was succeeded in 2013 by Liberal candidate Ian Goodenough.

Candidates

Assessment
Moore is a safe Liberal seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ian Goodenough Liberal 45,562 53.1 -1.1 53.9
Jason Daniel Lawrance Labor 22,324 26.0 -0.4 25.8
Louahna Janet Kiona Lloyd Greens 8,539 10.0 -3.6 9.7
Gary John Morris Palmer United Party 5,745 6.7 +6.7 6.3
Rex Host Australian Christians 1,602 1.9 +1.9 1.8
Josh Catalano Sports Party 1,324 1.5 +1.5 1.3
Mary Patricia Pritchett Rise Up Australia 738 0.9 +0.9 1.1
Others 0.2
Informal 4,055 4.7

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ian Goodenough Liberal 53,100 61.9 +0.7 62.4
Jason Daniel Lawrance Labor 32,734 38.1 -0.7 37.6
Polling places in Moore at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Moore at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.4% in the north to 68.7% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 9.8% in the north to 10.6% in the south.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 10.2 61.8 29,256 33.3
North 9.8 60.4 23,824 27.1
South 10.6 68.7 13,058 14.9
Other votes 8.2 61.4 21,658 24.7
Two-party-preferred votes in Moore at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Moore at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Moore at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Moore at the 2013 federal election.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Noticed you’ve got 2 candidates running for Labor – is one of them meant to be for another party?

    As for the seat of Moore, this is my new seat (used to be in Cowan), don’t expect much change here aside from Labor winning some more of the inland areas. This part of Perth should get more Liberal over time, particularly as the northern end of the seat becomes more established.

  2. For a seat with a comfortable Liberal majority you wouldn’t expect such an unremarkable MP.

    There should be a significant swing against the incumbent but it should still be held in a close contest.

  3. You people say he’s an unremarkable MP, but he says he’s Goodenough, and his party obviously think he is.

  4. @BoP it is unlikely to be even close. I expect a swing back, but certainly not into the marginal territory at all. These suburbs are pretty solid conservative areas who, even with scandals, will likely vote Liberal.

  5. Tony Walker is the perennial paper candidate. He also ran in the safe Liberal seat of Nedlands at the 2013 state election.

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