ALP 0.2%
Incumbent MP
Rob Mitchell, since 2010.
Geography
Northern Victoria. McEwen covers the northern fringe of Melbourne and rural areas as far north as Seymour and Puckapunyal. The seat also covers Kilmore, Gisborne and Sunbury.
History
McEwen was created when the Parliament was expanded in 1984, and was first won by Peter Cleeland of the ALP. The seat has traditionally been considered a marginal seat, although the Liberal Party held it continuously from 1996 until 2010.
Cleeland held on in 1987 before losing to Fran Bailey in 1990. Cleeland returned in 1993 before Bailey defeated him again in 1996. Bailey held on at every election from 1996 to 2010, but never with a great margin. She held on with a 2.2% margin in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 1.2% in 2001. She gained a 6.4% margin in 2004, but that melted away in 2007, when her margin was wiped out and the seat became the most marginal seat in the country.
Bailey led for most of the count after the 2007 election but her Labor opponent, Rob Mitchell, was declared the winner by six votes. A full recount gave Bailey a margin of twelve votes. This result was challenged in court and after seven months Bailey was declared the victor with a margin of twenty-seven votes.
In 2010, Bailey retired and Mitchell was comfortably elected.
In 2013, Mitchell was re-elected narrowly after a 9% swing back to the Liberal Party.
Candidates
- Rob Mitchell (Labor)
- James Anderson (Nationals)
- Neil Barker (Greens)
- Chris Jermyn (Liberal)
- Ross Lee (Independent)
- Tracey Andrew (Country Party)
- Jeff Truscott (Rise Up Australia)
- Cathy Vaina (Animal Justice)
- Dorothy Long (Family First)
Assessment
McEwen is a key marginal seat, and could go to either party.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Donna Petrovich | Liberal | 40,853 | 40.3 | +4.1 |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 38,091 | 37.6 | -10.2 |
| Neil Barker | Greens | 7,187 | 7.1 | -3.6 |
| Trevor Owen Dance | Palmer United Party | 6,822 | 6.7 | +6.7 |
| Victoria Nash | Sex Party | 3,256 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Barry Newton | Family First | 2,906 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| Bruce Stevens | Katter’s Australian Party | 997 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Ian Cranson | Country Alliance | 686 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Ferdie Verdan | Rise Up Australia | 463 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 4,910 | 4.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 50,787 | 50.2 | -9.0 |
| Donna Petrovich | Liberal | 50,474 | 49.9 | +9.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Hume, Mitchell and Macedon Ranges council areas have been grouped along those lines. Booths in the two south-eastern council areas of Nillumbik and Whittlesea have been grouped together.
Labor won the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 51% in the south-east and 55.4% in Hume. The Liberal Party won 50.7% in Mitchell and 55% in the Macedon Ranges.
| Voter group | GRN % | PUP % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hume | 6.5 | 7.8 | 55.4 | 20,823 | 20.6 |
| South-East | 8.0 | 5.9 | 51.0 | 18,361 | 18.1 |
| Mitchell | 5.4 | 8.0 | 49.3 | 13,510 | 13.3 |
| Macedon Ranges | 9.9 | 6.1 | 45.1 | 10,735 | 10.6 |
| Other votes | 6.8 | 6.3 | 48.6 | 37,832 | 37.4 |
Normally I’d agree over the Nats here, but Mitchell hasn’t impressed overly and a big chunk of the district is Black Saturday territory – the local CFA are ferociously anti-ALP with locals solid backing. It the Liberal candidate demonstrated a little more potential he’d have a good chance … But ….
A strong showing of commitment, ability & interest by the Nats rep or even an independent would possibly have potential at this point. Alas, the pool seems as tatty and as well matched to the population as the electoral boundaries – and that’s NOT a compliment!
My prediction: Likely Labor hold, given their incumbency and the large Liberal swing last time.