Mallee – Australia 2016

NAT 23.7%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Broad, since 2013.

Geography
North-western Victoria. Mallee covers a large area in the corner of Victoria, bordering New South Wales and South Australia. Mallee covers Gannawarra, Buloke, Hindmarsh, Horsham, Mildura, Northern Grampians, Swan Hill, West Wimmera and Yarriambiack council areas. Mallee includes the centres of Mildura, Ouyen, Swan Hill, St Arnaud, Warracknabeal, Stawell and Horsham.

History
Mallee was created at the redistribution before the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been held by the Country Party and its successor National Party.

The seat was won in 1949 by the Country Party’s Winton Turnbull. Turnbull had stood for office for the Country Party before the Second World War, but was captured in the fall of Singapore and was a prisoner of war for over three years. Turnbull won Wimmera in 1946, and moved to the new seat of Mallee in 1949.

Turnbull held Mallee for the next two decades, and retired at the 1972 election.

Mallee was won in 1972 by Peter Fisher, who held Mallee for another two decades, until he retired in 1993.

Mallee was won in 1993 by John Forrest, also of the National Party. Forrest held the seat for the next twenty years, retiring in 2013.

Nationals candidate Andrew Broad won Mallee in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Mallee was a reasonably close (although not very marginal) race between Nationals and Liberal in 2013, but in the absence of a Liberal candidate the seat should be very safe for the Nationals – indeed it is the safest Coalition seat on the pendulum.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Broad Nationals 33,270 38.8 -23.8
Chris Crewther Liberal 23,363 27.2 +24.1
Lydia Senior Labor 15,020 17.5 -3.3
Vince Cirillo Katter’s Australian Party 3,195 3.7 +3.7
Mark Robert Cory Palmer United Party 2,883 3.4 +3.4
Jane Macallister Greens 2,637 3.1 -4.7
Amy Mulcahy Sex Party 2,118 2.5 +2.5
Neil Buller Family First 1,356 1.6 -3.7
Tim Middleton Rise Up Australia 772 0.9 +0.9
Allen Ridgeway Independent 595 0.7 +0.7
Michael Coldham Country Alliance 384 0.5 +0.5
Chris Lahy Citizens Electoral Council 241 0.3 +0.3
Informal 6,373 7.4

2013 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Broad Nationals 48,243 56.2
Chris Crewther Liberal 37,591 43.8
Polling places in Mallee at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, East in blue, Mildura in orange, South in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mallee at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, East in blue, Mildura in orange, South in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in Buloke, Hindmarsh and Yarriambiack council areas, as well as those in the southern parts of the Mildura council area, have been grouped as “Central”. Those in Gannawarra and Swan Hill have been grouped as “East”. Those in Horsham, Northern Grampians and West Wimmera have been grouped as “South”. The booths in the main urban centre of Mildura, as well as some nearby booths close to the Murray River, have been grouped as “Mildura”.

The Nationals primary vote ranged from 28% in Mildura to 53.7% in the centre of the seat.

The Liberal primary vote ranged from 18% in the centre to 30% in Mildura. The Liberal Party outpolled the Nationals on the primary vote in Mildura.

Labor’s vote ranged from 13.3% in the east to 20% in the south and in Mildura.

Voter group NAT % LIB % ALP % Total votes % of votes
Mildura 28.0 30.4 20.1 14,156 14.6
South 36.3 28.0 20.0 13,965 14.4
East 52.0 20.4 13.3 11,561 11.9
Central 53.7 18.2 15.4 11,065 11.4
Other votes 26.6 23.3 13.3 46,271 47.7
Nationals primary votes in Mallee at the 2013 federal election.
Nationals primary votes in Mallee at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Mallee at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Mallee at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mallee at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mallee at the 2013 federal election.
Nationals primary votes in Mildura at the 2013 federal election.
Nationals primary votes in Mildura at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Mildura at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Mildura at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mildura at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mildura at the 2013 federal election.
Nationals primary votes in Horsham at the 2013 federal election.
Nationals primary votes in Horsham at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Horsham at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Horsham at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Horsham at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Horsham at the 2013 federal election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. The Libs came within 0.5% of winning Mallee in 1993. One might have thought it would be theirs at the next available opportunity. That was 2013, yet they didn’t really come close.

  2. Ali Cpper got 21.3% In Mildura in the 2015 Victorian state election will be interesting to watch out for.

  3. @Mad Max
    She ran as Labor’s candidate for Mildura in 2010 as well, I’d think she be a chance to come second. Although she is running as an independent, she would be the best chance for Labor in this seat, similar to McGowan in Indi and Windsor in NE.

  4. Labor will win this seat EASILY!!!

    Lol.

    Have there ever been cases of a major party candidate overturning a very safe margin due to a personal vote, akin to an Independent like Cathy McGowan, but actually part of a major party?

  5. @Nicholas Weston I don’t this for certain but heard that Hubert Opperman for the seat of Corio had quite the personal vote. Indeed, since his retirement the Liberals have not held the seat since.

  8. looking at over 6K Informals..shows that something/someone is’nt getting people interested enough to pick candidates offered.
    Im curious to know for the pop density is that figure high low or middling?

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