Mackellar – Australia 2016

LIB 18.8%

Incumbent MP
Bronwyn Bishop, since 1994. Previously Senator for New South Wales 1987-1994.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. Mackellar covers Pittwater council area and a majority of the Warringah council area. Major suburbs include Dee Why, Collaroy, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Avalon and Frenchs Forest.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Mackellar was created in 1949 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been won by the Liberal Party with substantial margins.

The seat was first won in 1949 by William Wentworth, grandson of colonial political figure William Charles Wentworth. Wentworth had previously polled 20% of the vote in the seat of Wentworth (named after his grandfather) as an independent in 1943.

Wentworth was a leading red-baiter in Parliament during the 1950s, although he remained in Parliament for almost two decades after winning Mackellar. He was close to John Gorton, and when Gorton became Prime Minister in early 1968 he appointed Wentworth to cabinet as the first ever federal minister with responsibility for Aboriginal affairs. Wentworth remained on the frontbench under Billy McMahon and served in the ministry until McMahon’s defeat in 1972.

Wentworth announced his retirement in 1977, but didn’t wait for the election to resign from the Liberal Party, after returning to the role of outspoken backbench rebel during the first term of the Fraser government. He ran as an independent for the Senate in 1977 and polled 2%.

Wentworth was succeeded in Mackellar by Liberal candidate Jim Carlton, who had served as the state party’s General Secretary during the 1970s. Carlton served as a minister in the final year of the Fraser government, and was a frontbencher in the Liberal opposition from the Hawke government’s election in 1983 until the 1990 election. Carlton retired from Parliament in 1994.

The ensuing by-election was won by sitting Senator and Liberal frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop. Bishop had been a  Senator for New South Wales since 1987, and had been a prominent Opposition frontbencher, and had been discussed as a possible leadership contender. She played a prominent role in the opposition frontbench after winning the by-election, but her colleagues did not share her assessment of her leadership potential, and she was passed over in favour of first Alexander Downer and then John Howard.

Bishop was re-elected to seven full terms from 1996 to 2013. Bishop was appointed to a junior ministerial role after the election of the Howard government in 1996. She was dropped from the ministry after the 2001 election after a controversial tenure as Minister for Ageing. She was elected Speaker after the 2013 election, but was forced to step down in August 2015 after criticisms over extravagant travel expenses.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Bronwyn Bishop is not running for re-election, after losing Liberal preselection.

Assessment
Mackellar is a very safe Liberal seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bronwyn Bishop Liberal 56,521 62.4 +0.3
Chris Hedge Labor 15,606 17.2 -3.9
Jonathan King Greens 12,843 14.2 -2.6
Debra Gayle Drummond Palmer United Party 3,771 4.2 +4.2
Silvana Nero Christian Democratic Party 1,791 2.0 +2.0
Informal 5,525 6.1

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bronwyn Bishop Liberal 62,322 68.8 +3.1
Chris Hedge Labor 28,210 31.2 -3.1
Polling places in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election. North in green, South-East in yellow, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election. North in green, South-East in yellow, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Mackellar covers all of the former Pittwater council area and a majority of the former Warringah council area, all now contained in the new Northern Beaches council. All of the polling places in the Pittwater area have been grouped together as “north”. Those in Warringah have been split between “south-east” on the coast and “west” further inland.

The Liberal Party easily topped the vote across Mackellar, polling 60.4% of the primary vote in two of the three areas, and 66% in the west.

Labor’s vote ranged from 16.1% in the north to 20% in the south-east. The Greens vote ranged from 11.8% in the west to 17.7% in the north, with the Greens outpolling Labor in the north.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
North 60.4 16.1 17.7 26,212 29.0
South-East 60.4 20.0 12.2 23,909 26.4
West 66.0 16.4 11.8 15,679 17.3
Other votes 64.4 16.2 13.8 24,732 27.3
Liberal primary votes in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election.
Liberal primary votes in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Mackellar at the 2013 federal election.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Thanks Mike,
    Yes very excited to be a part of the election and taking away the well held mantra of a “very safe seat” Just watch on election night!!

  2. Interested in the race for 2nd Blue Ribbon seats like this one, Warringah, North Sydney, Wentworth and Bradfield (as well as Curtin in WA, and Kooyong in Vic). They have low Labor votes with Greens in striking distance, and I’m not really sure what would build Labor support in these areas.

    In Mackellar, Greens are very close to Labor and the recent storms should bring climate change to people’s attention. The seats that comprise it ended up Lib vs Green in the state election, although not as much animosity towards federal Labor.

  3. Yes Daniel – Climate Change is immenent and the recent storms have highlighted that to our community. I would love to see Mackellar Independent or at least Marginal to show the major parties that they cant ignore us anymore!!
    Watch this space on election nite.

  4. It is a real regret that we aren’t seeing a Bronnie v Dick Smith fight here. It would have been a fantastic sideshow.

  5. Haha yes it sure would have been PJ. Hopefully we can all make for an interesting nite anyway!!

  6. My home seat. Rumour is that the local Liberal Members are not happy about Falinski winning the seat and are doing their best to not help with the local campaign.

    Falinski will win but there will be a sharp drop in the Primary Vote. He will probably only have a small swing in the 2PP but the drop in Primary Vote will be something that people might catch a hold of.

  7. Yes Hawkeye-au and Anton, I’m quite sure Falinski will win, but his primaries will drop significantly. A lot of dissatisfaction with the Liberal party up this way. Unfortunately a number of the “Independent” candidates have preferenced the Libs 2 or 3 so he will not have a marked drop in 2PP, but I wouldn’t be surprised if The Greens come out in the mix. Wait and see!!

  8. Yes the old wet v dry conundrum for the Libs. What you lot are saying locally is what is happening with Malcom nationally of course. A small l liberal leader enthroned as a stop gap fill in, while the neo cons juxtaposition to find the next messiah among their collective lot. Bernardi might be the next cab off the rank. Think about it!

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