Kingston – Australia 2016

ALP 9.7%

Incumbent MP
Amanda Rishworth, since 2007.

Geography
Kingston covers the southern fringe of Adelaide and coastal suburbs to the south of South Australia’s capital, including Aldinga and Noarlunga. The seat covers a majority of Onkaparinga LGA and part of Marion LGA.

History
Kingston was first created in 1949, and in its sixty year history has been a classical marginal seat regularly changing hands. The seat has been represented by ten MPs in the last sixty years, and every former Member for Kingston lost the seat at an election to the opposing major party.

The seat was first won in 1949 by former SANFL football player Jim Handby for the Liberal Party. Patrick Galvin of the ALP won the seat in 1951 off Handby and held it for the next fifteen years. Galvin was himself defeated by Kay Brownbill of the Liberal Party in 1966.

Brownbill was defeated in 1969 by Labor’s Richard Gun. The party of government held Kingston from the 1972 election until 1998, with Gun winning re-election in 1972 and 1974.

Grant Chapman won the seat off Gun in 1975, and held the seat for the entirety of the Fraser government. Following his defeat in 1983 he went on to become a Senator for South Australia from 1987 until 2007.

Chapman was defeated in 1983 by Gordon Bliney of the ALP, who went on to serve as a minister in the Hawke and Keating governments. The seat was home to a challenge by Democrats leader Janine Haines in 1990, when she attempted to move to the House of Representatives. She polled over a quarter of the vote but failed to outpoll either major party. Bliney was defeated by Susan Jeanes in 1996, and Jeanes herself was defeated in 1998 before seeking a career in state politics, where she challenged Bob Such for preselection in Fisher, and Such was re-elected as an independent.

David Cox won the seat for the ALP in 1998 and held it until 2004, during which time he served on the Opposition frontbench. He was defeated in 2004 by former police officer Kym Richardson. Richardson was defeated in 2007 by Labor’s Amanda Rishworth, and Rishworth was re-elected in 2010 and 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Kingston was a reasonably marginal seat in the last decade, but Rishworth has improved Labor’s position and now the seat is reasonably safe.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Amanda Rishworth Labor 43,328 49.3 -2.5
Damien Mills Liberal 28,492 32.4 +4.0
Palitja Moore Greens 6,062 6.9 -5.2
Geoff Doecke Family First 5,168 5.9 +0.1
Mitchell Thomas Frost Palmer United Party 3,709 4.2 +4.2
Andy Snoswell Rise Up Australia 1,191 1.4 +1.4
Informal 4,697 5.3

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Amanda Rishworth Labor 52,504 59.7 -4.9
Damien Mills Liberal 35,446 40.3 +4.9
Polling places in Kingston at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kingston at the 2013 federal election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. The north and the centre are effectively parts of the Adelaide metro area, while the south covers the narrow coastal strip to the south of Adelaide.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56% in the centre to 65% in the north.

Nick Xenophon’s Senate vote ranged from 24% in the centre to 29% in the north.

Voter group XEN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 29.2 56.2 30,499 34.7
Central 23.9 65.0 22,422 25.5
South 25.3 62.4 14,995 17.0
Other votes 23.7 57.0 20,034 22.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Kingston at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Kingston at the 2013 federal election.
Senate primary votes for the Nick Xenophon group in Kingston at the 2013 federal election.
Senate primary votes for the Nick Xenophon group in Kingston at the 2013 federal election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Is Rishworth made of gold or something? Was only ten years ago that this seat was Liberal held.

  2. @Morgieb IKR. Apart from her strong local profile I think it has something to do with the decline in Liberal support statewide as the Labor vote recovers from its pre-1996 collapse in the wake of the State Bank debacle.

  3. My prediction: Amanda Risworth, MP since 2007, most be a borderline superhero – this part of Adelaide is not normally safe Labor, and was a marginal seat until the 2010 election. Should stay Labor as long as Rishworth is MP.

  4. For a seat that the Liberal Party held as recently as 2007 to now have nearly an 18% ALP margin is truly an extraordinary feat.

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