LNP 6.2%
Incumbent MP
Ewen Jones, since 2010.
Geography
Herbert covers the vast majority of the urban area in Townsville. It also covers rural areas to the west of Townsville which are contained in Townsville LGAs.
History
Herbert is an original federation seat. The seat originally covered most of North Queensland, from Mackay to the Torres Strait, but now is almost entirely based in Townsville. The seat has long been a marginal seat, and only three former MPs have managed to retire on their own terms.
The seat was first held by Fred Bamford, who held the seat for a quarter of a century. He was first elected as a Labor member and was expelled from the ALP over conscription in 1916. He served briefly as a minister under Billy Hughes and represented the Nationalists under his retirement in 1925.
At the 1925 election, Premier of Queensland Ted Theodore resigned from office in order to run for Herbert, but was surprisingly defeated by Lewis Nott of the Nationalists, who held the seat for one term. Nott later emerged as the first member for the Australian Capital Territory as an independent from 1949 to 1951.
George Martens won the seat for the ALP in 1928 and held it until his retirement in 1946. The seat was then held by Labor’s William Edmonds until 1958.
Edmonds was defeated that year by John Murray of the Liberal Party, who was defeated himself by the ALP’s Ted Harding in 1961. Harding was defeated in 1966 by Robert Bonnett. The seat was then held solidly by the Liberal Party for a long period. Bonnett retired in 1977 and Arthur Dean held on to the seat for the Liberals from 1977 to 1983.
In 1983, Dean was defeated by the ALP’s Ted Lindsay, as part of Bob Hawke’s election win over Malcolm Fraser. Lindsay held the seat for the entirety of the Hawke/Keating government before being defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Peter Lindsay (no relation). Lindsay was re-elected four times, and retired in 2010.
The Liberal National Party’s Ewen Jones won the seat in 2010. The redistribution had made Herbert a notional Labor seat, but a swing of 2.2% saw Jones retain the seat for the LNP. He was re-elected in 2013.
Candidates
- Michael Punshon (Family First)
- Colin Dwyer (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Martin Brewster (Palmer United Party)
- Geoff Virgo (One Nation)
- Cathy O’Toole (Labor)
- Wendy Tubman (Greens)
- Ewen Jones (Liberal National)
- Aaron Raffin (Glenn Lazarus Team)
- David Harris (Liberal Democrats)
Assessment
At the last election, Herbert was drawn as a notional Labor seat based on 2007 election results – this suggests that this seat could fall if there was a very large swing to Labor, but it’s more likely to stay with the LNP.
Polls
- 53% to LNP – Galaxy commissioned by Townsville Bulletin, 13 May 2016
- 54% to LNP – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ewen Jones | Liberal National | 36,952 | 43.3 | -2.3 |
| Cathy O’Toole | Labor | 25,051 | 29.4 | -10.8 |
| Martin Brewster | Palmer United Party | 7,573 | 8.9 | +8.9 |
| Bronwyn Walker | Katter’s Australian Party | 6,890 | 8.1 | +8.1 |
| Gail Hamilton | Greens | 4,463 | 5.2 | -3.6 |
| Costa George | Sex Party | 1,576 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Michael Punshon | Family First | 1,106 | 1.3 | -4.0 |
| Steve Moir | One Nation | 710 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Nino Marolla | Rise Up Australia | 549 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Margaret Bell | Australian Voice | 383 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 5,379 | 6.3 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ewen Jones | Liberal National | 47,889 | 56.2 | +4.0 |
| Cathy O’Toole | Labor | 37,364 | 43.8 | -4.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Most of the seat’s population lies in the Townsville urban area, and these booths are divided into three areas: Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa-Douglas. The remaining booths are divided between those in the rural hinterland to the west of Townsville, and those on islands off the coast.
The Liberal National Party won a majority in four out of five areas, with a vote ranging from 53.5% in Mundingburra to 60% in the rural area. Labor won 57.2% on the islands.
| Voter group | PUP % | KAP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Thuringowa-Douglas | 9.3 | 7.1 | 56.4 | 22,496 | 26.4 |
| Mundingburra | 8.4 | 7.6 | 53.5 | 21,616 | 25.4 |
| Townsville | 7.3 | 6.1 | 53.9 | 10,136 | 11.9 |
| Rural | 12.6 | 10.4 | 60.0 | 9,358 | 11.0 |
| Islands | 5.4 | 9.7 | 42.8 | 1,822 | 2.1 |
| Other votes | 8.3 | 9.5 | 59.4 | 19,825 | 23.3 |
Ewen Jones has been far too quiet,, & restrained for my liking. Too polite by half, considering all the goings on in Townsville.
He quite simply ought to be going off his nutt !!!. If i were him , i’d be making a real peat of myself to the LNP.
I’d be big Bob’s (Katter) new best friend.
Leaking that i was considering going over to KAP !!!. Making a total spectacle of the place, & everything else.
This seems to be a key seat at every election yet Labor can never get there.
Nick C
As i keep saying Queenslanders are “different”. The further north you go, the more “” different “” they become !!!!.
Herbert has stubbornly stuck with the Liberals through the challenges of Hanson, Katter, Palmer, the Rudd tidal wave, and unfavourable redistributions. It’s hard to see it falling unless there is some significant upheaval here.
MM
But there ARE major upheavals up there. However you are right Ewen Jones is going nowhere, perhaps in more ways than one !!!.
Very minor point, but shouldn’t the LNP 6.2% at the top of the page be in blue?
@Winediamond are you sure? Jones is one of the most vocal MPs I have seen. In fact, one of the only Coalition MPs repeatedly thrown out of the HOR by ‘biased’ Bronwyn for speaking his mind. I see his face all over the internet and I have friends in the area that say he is pretty active. Anecdotal of course, but still interesting considering how our perspectives diverge nonetheless.
‘repeatedly thrown out’ in March 2016 he had been thrown out twice, can’t exactly call that repeatedly. Also in labor’s fairness it has had to deal with incumbency when it has tried to win during the Howard years and labor was never going to hold a seat in 2010 if there was no labor incumbent as a result of redistribution
Peter Lindsay survived two very close calls in 1998 and 2007. Labor looked certain to pick the seat up on Linday’s retirement in 2010. Then came its own self-immolation.
State results bode well for Labor here. They won Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra pretty handily last year.
However with a two term incumbent – and I would agree Jones is pretty visible, at least so on a national scale – and the anti-Newman government anger dissipated, the LNP is probably a warm favourite here.
@Dan repeatedly: i.e more than once, especially considering how it was a government MP who are not usually thrown out.
Let’s be frank here, QLD is just not a Labor state anymore and it is a reality that they will have to face eventually just as the Liberals will have to come to grips with their situation in Victoria. In fact, the ALP have only won the 2PP in QLD thrice since 1949.
repeatedly means over and over again so don’t see what you mean. I doubt anyone in Herbert will remember hearing Ewen got chucked out twice. Government MPs can get thrown out and are often more then the amount Bronwyn kicked out.
No one has ever said QLD is a labor state, I think most people would have it pretty low on a list ranking favourable states for labor
@Dan I do not know why you treat everything I say as an accusation? I was merely pointing out that IMO Labor’s woes stem from their poor performance in QLD.
You’d be surprised what people would remember. Given the indubitable procession of ‘blandness’ that passes through politics these days, a bit of colour certainly wouldn’t hurt his chances 😉
I’m not I just think it’s silly to say qld was at some point recently a labor state. And if you find me five people in Herbert who remember how many times he’s been kicked out I’ll agree but I think Ewen trying to be a character is too late now he should have started when he got elected, doing it now all of a sudden looks a bit fake
@Dan ummmmm I actually said the opposite? I said that the AlP’s problems were precisely because QLD was NOT a Labor state? I do not understand how you could construe the opposite?
As always these things are debatable. But as I said: IN MY OPINION I think that he has made a name for himself through his larrikin-like character that FYI he has cultivated since being elected, as the kickouts were last year – so I do reject the notion that it is in any manner ‘sudden’.
at a state level post 1989 Qld has been a labor state
ABC reports that ALP and KAP are both targeting Herbert, in part because of the unemployment levels.
KAP did quite well around here last time, i’d imagine with the absence of PUP they should do even better this time around, perhaps pushing upwards to 13%
Latest poll shows a substantial swing to KAP attributed to lack of performance by LNP
I am expecting a rather large third party vote in the seats between Wide Bay and Leichardt. In Herbert I expect the Katter Party to improve on 2013 as it absorbs the Palmer vote and some disgruntled LNP supporters. Does anyone know who they are preferencing?
Newspoll has 2PP at LNP 54%, ALP 46%
My prediction: Likely LNP hold.
Labor have a good chance of winning this seat, but they are not out of the woods yet. They have a lead of around 1000, and Sam Dasatari suggests that you probably need a lead of 1000 if you are going withstand the postal voters. However, some have suggested that the postal votes are more frequent in North Queensland. This seat has surprised politcal commentators- there was a view later in the campaign that the Liberals had this won. However Turnbull stalling on the Townsville Stadium until the last moment, some feel was a factor in voters distrust of the Liberals.
There was also the issue of unemployent – a slogan of jobs and growth may have generated scepticism?
Definitely here it did. Although nearby Dawson didn’t swing nearly as much.
Yes, considering that, it’s surprising how close the vote is. A dog always returns to the master, no matter how badly it’s treated or how meagerly it is fed. Sad really.
I don’t know, a 4.5% swing is still strong. Sure, it’s less than the 6.9% seen in Herbert, but it’s not small.
Note that the statewide swing was 3.5%.
I don’t suppose that there would be an option to exchange some Labor votes from Herbert for some Liberal votes in Dawson? I’d much rather have Christensen removed from parliament and keep Ewen Jones. Hey, Liberal supporters – would you be open to such a trade?
(yes, I know it can’t be done. Doesn’t stop me from fantasising)
@Glen I knew he wouldn’t be defeated. Sure he is an arch-conservative, but I can think of no better place for someone like that to represent than QLD.
If only Christensen AND Jones had been ousted my prayers would have been answered.
I know that the recount is about to start tomorrow and that there is an issue regarding 85 ADF who couldn’t vote so this will most likely end up in the Court of Disputed Returns but the latest AEC update from 1 hr ago has only a 1 vote difference!
Ewens 44,184
O’toole 44, 183
Crazy!
Labor now ahead by 13
extended to 73
Looks like a labor win after minor preferences.