LNP 16.5%
Incumbent MP
Ian Macfarlane, since 1998.
Geography
Groom covers the city of Toowoomba and rural areas to the west of the city contained entirely within Toowoomba Region council area.
History
Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. The seat has always been held by Coalition MPs.
Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. McVeigh had been Member for Darling Downs since the 1972 election, and was elected Member for Groom in 1984 when Darling Downs was abolished. Darling Downs had previously centred on Toowoomba, which became the centre of the new seat of Groom.
McVeigh retired in 1988, triggering a by-election. The Liberal Party contested the by-election, and their candidate Bill Taylor outpolled the Nationals by 4.5% on primary votes and won a substantial majority on Labor preferences.
Taylor held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1998. The Nationals again challenged for the seat, but fell into fourth place behind Labor and One Nation, with the Liberal Party’s Ian Macfarlane winning the seat.
Macfarlane was made a junior minister in January 2001, and joined the Howard cabinet after the 2001 election as Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources, a role he held for the remainder of the Howard government. Macfarlane served as a frontbencher while the Coalition was in opposition, and as a cabinet minister during the Abbott government.
Macfarlane was dropped from the ministry when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. He attempted to switch from the Liberal party room to the Nationals party room, but the LNP state executive blocked the proposal.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ian Macfarlane is not running for re-election.
- John Sands (Family First)
- Bronwyn Herbertson (Labor)
- Josie Townsend (Nick Xenophon Team)
- John McVeigh (Liberal National)
- Antonia van Geuns (Greens)
Assessment
Groom is a very safe LNP seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Macfarlane | Liberal National | 48,966 | 55.6 | -5.6 |
| Troy Murray | Labor | 19,451 | 22.1 | -0.6 |
| Ewen Mathieson | Palmer United Party | 8,225 | 9.4 | +9.4 |
| Trevor Smith | Greens | 3,823 | 4.3 | -3.0 |
| Chris Whitty | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,243 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Alex Todd | Family First | 2,342 | 2.7 | -2.9 |
| Rick Armitage | Rise Up Australia | 1,210 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Robert Thies | Citizens Electoral Council | 743 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 3,656 | 4.2 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Macfarlane | Liberal National | 58,493 | 66.5 | -2.1 |
| Troy Murray | Labor | 29,510 | 33.5 | +2.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. A majority of the population lives in the Toowoomba, and these booths were split into two halves: north and south. The booths outside of the Toowoomba urban area have also been split into north and south.
The Liberal National Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 59% in Toowoomba North to 75.7% in the rural south of the seat.
| Voter group | PUP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Toowoomba South | 9.4 | 63.9 | 22,132 | 25.1 |
| Toowoomba North | 10.4 | 59.0 | 21,632 | 24.6 |
| North | 10.1 | 71.3 | 12,093 | 13.7 |
| South | 10.1 | 75.7 | 6,606 | 7.5 |
| Other votes | 7.9 | 70.3 | 25,540 | 29.0 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Groom at the 2013 federal election
McVeigh will win easily here, no doubt whatsoever.
Also, there are no links to Groom from the pendulum, alphabetical list or state order list pages (got here by changing a URL).
Will McVeigh sit in the Nats or Libs party room?
Labor has a much better vote in Toowoomba
“Will McVeigh sit in the Nats or Libs party room?”
Definitely will sit as a Liberal even though he really is a Nat. I think there could still be a swing against him, for causing the bye-election in Toowoomba South.
Greens candidate in Groom is Antonia van Geuns. It said in the local Toowoomba paper The Chronicle Janine Kelly has pulled out for personal reasons.
My prediction: Easy LNP hold.