IND 15.5% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Andrew Wilkie, since 2010.
Geography
Denison covers the suburbs of Hobart on the western shores of the Derwent River. The seat covers Hobart and Glenorchy LGAs as well as northern parts of Kingborough LGA. The seat includes the Hobart CBD and is by far the most compact seat in Tasmania.
History
Denison was first created for the 1903 election. The seat was first held by Sir Philip Fysh, a former Premier of Tasmania and minister under Edmund Barton and Alfred Deakin. His retirement in 1910 saw the seat fall to the ALP, with the ALP member William Laird Smith joining the new Nationalist party in 1916. He lost the seat to a Labor candidate in 1922, and for the next twelve years the seat changed hands every three years, with the Nationalists winning it back in 1925, the ALP winning it back in 1928 and retaining it in 1929 before the new United Australia Party won the seat in 1931.
In 1934, the ALP regained it yet again, and held it for two terms until the 1940 election. A new UAP member of Parliament won the seat in 1940, and again only held it for three years, before the ALP’s John Gaha won the seat at the 1943 election. For the next half-century, Denison was a bellwether seat, going to the party that won federal government at each election.
Gaha lost the seat in 1949 to the Liberal Party’s Athol Townley. Townley held the seat for the next fourteen years, which was the longest term of service in Denison up until Duncan Kerr’s time. Townley served as Minister for Defence under Robert Menzies, before dying in December 1963 shortly after being appointed as Ambassador to the United States.
He was succeeded by Adrian Gibson, who retired in 1969 to be replaced by Robert Solomon. Solomon was defeated after one term in 1972 by Labor’s John Coates, who himself was defeated by Michael Hodgman in 1975. Hodgman served in a variety of junior ministerial roles under Malcolm Fraser and held the seat until 1987. Indeed, his victories in 1983 and 1984 were the only times Denison had gone to an opposition candidate in decades.
Hodgman was defeated in 1987 by the ALP’s Duncan Kerr. Kerr held the seat from 1987 until 2010, by far the longest term in Denison in the seat’s 106-year history.
In 2010, Kerr was replaced as ALP candidate by Jonathan Jackson. He was challenged by independent candidate Andrew Wilkie. Wilkie was a former intelligence whistleblower, NSW Greens lower house candidate and Tasmanian Greens Senate candidate, before running a close campaign for a state seat in Denison at the 2010 state election. At the federal election, Wilkie came third on primary votes but overtook the Liberal Party on Socialist and Green preferences, and narrowly defeated the ALP on the two-party-preferred vote.
In 2013, Wilkie gained a 16.8% primary vote swing, easily outpolling the three main parties in Denison, and won after preferences with a 15.5% margin.
Candidates
- Amanda Excell (Christian Democratic Party)
- Marcus Allan (Liberal)
- Jane Austin (Labor)
- Wayne Williams (Democratic Labour)
- Andrew Wilkie (Independent)
- Jen Brown (Greens)
Assessment
Andrew Wilkie has built up a significant primary vote, and a sizeable two-candidate-preferred lead. It seems likely that he will continue to hold Denison until something significant shifts in national or local politics.
Polls
- 31.8% to Wilkie, 24.4% Liberal, 20.7% Labor, 12.1% Greens, 8.1 undecided – Reachtel commissioned by Sunday Tasmanian, 14 May 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Wilkie | Independent | 24,688 | 38.1 | +16.8 |
| Jane Austin | Labor | 16,043 | 24.8 | -11.0 |
| Tanya Denison | Liberal | 15,058 | 23.2 | +0.6 |
| Anna Reynolds | Greens | 5,133 | 7.9 | -11.1 |
| Debra Joyce Thurley | Palmer United Party | 1,576 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Bob Butler | Sex Party | 877 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Trevlyn Mccallum | Family First | 593 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Wayne Williams | Democratic Labour Party | 554 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Graeme Devlin | Rise Up Australia | 179 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Brandon Hoult | Stable Population Party | 124 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 2,856 | 4.4 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Wilkie | Independent | 42,470 | 65.5 | +14.3 |
| Jane Austin | Labor | 22,355 | 34.5 | -14.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population of Denison lie in Glenorchy and Hobart local government areas. Booths in Glenorchy have been split between Claremont (north) and Glenorchy (south). Booths in Hobart have been divided between Hobart and South. The handful of booths in Kingborough council have also been included in South.
There is a strong divide in the vote between the Glenorchy and Hobart council areas.
In the Glenorchy council area, Andrew Wilkie narrowly outpolled Labor on primary votes, and Wilkie won around 58% of the two-candidate-preferred vote.
In the Hobart council area, Andrew Wilkie won the primary vote easily, polling around 41% in both Hobart and the south. Labor only narrowly outpolled the Liberal Party in the Hobart area, and at the southern end of the seat the Liberal Party significantly outpolled Labor.
| Voter group | IND % | ALP % | LIB % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hobart | 41.1 | 22.7 | 19.3 | 15,653 | 24.1 |
| South | 40.9 | 15.5 | 30.0 | 11,705 | 18.1 |
| Glenorchy | 33.8 | 32.8 | 20.7 | 13,376 | 20.6 |
| Claremont | 35.7 | 33.1 | 19.9 | 7,327 | 11.3 |
| Other votes | 37.8 | 23.1 | 25.7 | 16,764 | 25.9 |
Nothing to suggest that Wilkie will lose. I’d imagine the biggest loser here being the Libs, and for Labor and the Greens to have a swing towards them.
I remember when Wilkie first won this seat in 2010, it was off the booths in the Hobart area, the area north was solidly Labor. In 2013, the north switched to Wilke which would explain the big swing in his favour on the primary and TPP vote.
Can’t see there being much further movement towards Wilkie. If there is a swing towards Labor and the Greens – Wilkie’s primary vote could take a hit. The Liberal vote probably won’t move all that much as there wasn’t a big swing towards them last time. They seem to already be as low as they’re going to get, in other words.
You’re right about that north-south split in the 2010 results – you can see it in my 2013 guide.
But that split still existed in 2013. The whole area swung to Wilkie, both north and south, but he remains much stronger in the south.
The areas in the south where Wilkie is the strongest is generally where the Greens are best in Denison. Considering he ran as a Green a few times most notably a high profile run against Howard in 2004. Wilkie does seem to take the turquoise vote, Liberal leaning Greens.
I’m sure Wilkie takes a huge number of Greens voters but he also must have taken a lot of Labor voters to be in his current position.
He’s clearly taking votes off all parties. Given he’s someone whose positions are basically the same as the Greens it’s important to note that even in 2010 the combined vote of himself and the Greens was far in excess of the Greens Senate vote.
There are a lot of Greens who think that Wilkie ‘stole’ a seat that they seem to believe would’ve otherwise been won by the Greens, and apparenlty this is one reason why the Greens preferenced Labor here in 2013 in a desire to try and unseat him. I don’t think it’s anywhere near that clear that the Greens would be winning this seat without Wilkie being there.
The Greens’ attempt to preference Labor over Wilkie last time failed; their voters preferred Wilkie (57-40 with 3% for the Libs). Labor put Wilkie second-last on their HTV and I’ve heard from scrutineers that that failed too.
In the 2010 state election Wilkie took votes from the Greens and Liberals and didn’t really harm the Labor vote. Then Labor gave him a sniff with a bad preselection and he started gouging their voter base at the 2010 federal election as well.
Hard to see Wilkies vote increasing on the previous election given he no longer has the profile afforded to him in the hung parliament, but he should easily retain Denison regardless.
I suspect the Greens` vote may increase after a low point at the last election. Not being associated with an unpopular government should see to that.
The real problem for the Greens in Denison is that there is very little policy difference between them and Wilkie so it is very hard for them to make the case that people should vote for them instead of him. Really the softness of the once-huge Green vote in this electorate in the face of the Wilkie onslaught says something about how many Green voters here are open to other alternatives to the major parties and not just, or even by preference, the Greens. Wilkie’s last Green opponent went on to be elected to Hobart City Council, which following a recent countback now has four Greens out of 12.
“how many Green voters here are open to other alternatives to the major parties and not just, or even by preference, the Greens”
Would those sort of people be likely to vote for both Wilkie and Jacqui Lambie? (And/or Brian Harradine, back in the day?)
BoP
I think there may be some people who’d vote Wilkie and Lambie, but their vote bases are different. The southern half of this seat is full of small-L libs/light Greens who culturally don’t vote Labor but care about the environment and wouldn’t agree with Libs on social issues. These are the sort of people Wilkie won on in 2010, but in 2013 he gained support in the top half of the seat, which is normally low socioeconomic rusted-on Labor territory, who would possibly vote Lambie and Harradine back in the day, because of their “Tasmania first” philosophy. Tasmanians are very state-centric and this ideology appeals statewide, in my view.
I don’t think there is that much competition between Lambie and the Greens. Lambie supporters and Greens supporters come from very different social backgrounds.
My guide to the five Tasmanian seats has just been posted:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/the-five-tasmanian-house-of.html
My prediction: Andrew Wilkie should easily win again.