Bass – Australia 2016

LIB 4.0%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Nikolic, since 2013.

Geography
Bass covers the north-eastern corner of Tasmania. It covers the LGAs of Launceston, George Town and Dorset, along with small parts of West Tamar and Meander Valley LGAs to the west of Launceston. Bass also covers Tasmania’s north-eastern islands, including Flinders Island.

History
Bass was created for the 1903 election, after Tasmania’s MPs were elected at large for the 1901 election. Bass has always been centred on Launceston, and has long been a marginal electorate. Indeed, the seat has changed hands from one MP to another fifteen times in its history, and only twice has an MP been succeeded by a member of the same party.

The seat was dominated by the Barnard family in the middle part of the twentieth century, with Claude Barnard holding the seat from 1934 to 1949, which included a period as Minister for Repatriation in the Chifley government. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick in 1949, who himself was defeated by Claude’s son Lance Barnard in 1954. The younger Barnard went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister under Gough Whitlam from 1972 to 1974, and his resignation triggered the June 1975 Bass by-election, which saw a 14% swing to the Liberal Party, a major blow to the Whitlam government.

Kevin Newman (father of Queensland Premier, Campbell) held the seat from 1975 to 1984, during which time he served as a minister in the Fraser government. He was succeeded by Warwick Smith in 1984. Smith served up to the 1993 election, when he too was defeated by Labor candidate Silvia Smith.

Warwick Smith won seat back in 1996, and he served as a minister in the first Howard government. He was defeated again in 1998 by Michelle O’Byrne, who held the seat for two terms as a Labor MP before losing in 2004 as part of a backlash against Mark Latham’s forestry policies. She too went on to become a state MP for Bass at the 2006 state election.

At the 2007 election, the sitting Liberal MP Michael Ferguson was defeated himself by Launceston alderman Jodie Campbell. Campbell stepped down in 2010 after one term, and Labor candidate Geoff Lyons won the seat.

Lyons only lasted one term, losing in 2013 to Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic.

Candidates

Assessment
Bass is a key marginal, and has been so for a long time. Bass has a particular history of sitting MPs being turfed out by large swings. If there is a sizeable swing to Labor, they would be hoping to regain Bass.

Polls

  • 51% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by Sunday Tasmanian, 14 May 2016
  • 51% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by GetUp, 31 May 2016
  • 52% to Liberal – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Nikolic Liberal 31,267 47.9 +8.1
Geoff Lyons Labor 22,643 34.7 -8.8
Lucy Landon-Lane Greens 5,160 7.9 -7.7
Christopher Lee Dobson Palmer United Party 3,520 5.4 +5.4
Christine Bergman Family First 1,407 2.2 +2.2
Ray Kroeze Australian Christians 963 1.5 +1.5
Jin-oh Choi Secular Party 384 0.6 +0.6
Informal 2,850 4.4

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Nikolic Liberal 35,310 54.0 +10.8
Geoff Lyons Labor 30,034 46.0 -10.8
Polling places in Launceston at the 2013 federal election. Dorset in blue, Flinders Island in orange, George Town in yellow, Launceston Rural in red, Launceston Urban in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Launceston at the 2013 federal election. Dorset in blue, Flinders Island in orange, George Town in yellow, Launceston Rural in red, Launceston Urban in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Three of the areas cover the entirety of their local government area: Dorset, George Town and Flinders Island. The remaining areas, which include all of Launceston City Council and small parts of two neighbouring council areas near Launceston. This area was split between Launceston Urban and Launceston Rural.

The Liberal won large majorities in rural parts of the electorate, with 56% in rural parts of Launceston, 63% on Flinders Island and 67% in the Dorset area.

Labor won 51% in the George Town area, and in urban parts of Launceston (which make up the vast majority of the seat) the Liberal Party won 51.6%.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Launceston Urban 7.9 51.6 40,330 61.7
Dorset 4.0 67.3 3,643 5.6
George Town 5.3 49.0 3,322 5.1
Launceston Rural 10.3 56.3 2,245 3.4
Flinders Island 9.2 63.4 448 0.7
Other votes 9.0 57.7 15,356 23.5
Two-party-preferred votes in Bass at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bass at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Launceston at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Launceston at the 2013 federal election.

15 COMMENTS

  1. I suspect this would be the likeliest Liberal retain in Tasmania. Nikolic is pretty high-profile and outspoken and could well equal a hold. We shall have to see how the state as a whole shapes up however.

  2. Agreed, it’s quite clear from afar that Labor is pouring all its resources into winning back Braddon and Lyons. Nikolic’s profile and hard work on the ground should be enough this time to be re-elected.

  3. Nikolic is particularly prone to social media scrapes and similar confrontations but I don’t think that does him significant damage among voters generally. It mainly generates outrage among people who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.

    I’ve seen no polling of any of the Tasmanian marginals for almost a year now.

  7. A recent Examiner article discussed Nikolic withdrawing from a debate because the Greens would be present. He said it is party policy to only debate vs the ALP (which is interesting, because the Lyons Lib member is attending a debate with the Greens candidate present).
    Anyway, the comments on said article were 100% against him, including some people who said they voted for him but now regret it and will not again. It’s only anecdotal of course, not a poll.
    http://www.examiner.com.au/story/3966148/liberals-boycott-bass-debate/

  8. Doesnt seem to be hurting him too much, Newspoll has Lib at 52% here, ALP at 48%. Not enough for a ALP must win seat

  9. I do not think the concept of a “must-win” seat, least of all one in Tasmania, holds much water. Bob Hawke governed with 0 from 5 in Tassie.

  11. Logic dictates the ALP has to win x number of seats to have a majority. Thus, a list of target or must win seats forms the path to reaching that majority. You can disagree on the specific seats, the semantics and also suggest that Tassie is irrelevant but the state ALP has this seat as a target as you are no doubt you are aware.

    A must win on my list if they want to get to their target.

  12. Sure, but at the end of the day one seat is just one seat, and as good as any other. Of course the state party would be targetting this, but nationally the ALP shouldn’t really be expecting too much from Tasmania this election, with a relatively young state Liberal government still riding high, Wilkie araldited to the seat in Denison and federal government members elsewhere due for a sophomore surge.

    The ALP’s general path to victory is to do well in Queensland, New South Wales and WA while holding the line in Victoria and SA.

  14. My prediction: Prone to large swings, Bass could go either way, although is the most likely of the three Liberal seats in Tasmania to stay blue.

    Likely Liberal hold.

  15. Prediction: Nikolic is by far the most high profile of the Tasmanian Liberal MP’s (for all the wrong reasons imo). He will probably be returned.

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