LNP 2.8%
Incumbent MP
Ross Vasta, since 2010, previously 2004-2007.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Brisbane. Bonner covers eastern parts of the City of Brisbane south of the Brisbane River. Main suburbs include Wynnum, Manly, Mount Gravatt and Carindale, as well as the sparsely populated Moreton Island.
History
Bonner was created at the redistribution prior to the 2004 election as a notionally Labor seat, taking in the most pro-Labor parts of Bowman, then held by the ALP.
At the 2004 election, sitting Member for Bowman Con Sciacca ran for Bonner. Sciacca had held Bowman since 1987, except for one term after losing the seat in 1996. A swing to the Liberal Party saw Sciacca defeated by Ross Vasta (LIB) by less than 800 votes.
A 5% swing to the ALP gave the seat to Kerry Rea in 2007. In 2010, Rea was challenged by Vasta, who won the seat back for the Liberal National Party.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ross Vasta is running for re-election. The ALP is running Laura Fraser Hardy. The Greens are running Dave Nelson.
Assessment
After three terms, Bonner has never returned the sitting member for a second term. Vasta has now run for the seat three elections in a row and should have a solid personal vote, but the seat would be vulnerable if there was a swing back to Labor.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | LNP | 38,105 | 46.38 | +4.47 |
| Kerry Rea | ALP | 29,639 | 36.07 | -12.73 |
| Darryl Rosin | GRN | 9,188 | 11.18 | +6.28 |
| Carolyn Ferrando | FF | 2,318 | 2.82 | +0.89 |
| Greg Sowden | IND | 1,984 | 2.41 | +2.41 |
| Utz Wellner | DLP | 931 | 1.13 | +1.13 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Vasta | LNP | 43,400 | 52.82 | +7.35 |
| Kerry Rea | ALP | 38,765 | 47.18 | -7.35 |
Polling booths in Bonner at the 2010 federal election. Mount Gravatt in green, Central in blue, Wynnum-Manly in orange. Click to enlarge.
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Gravatt in the south, Wynnum-Manly in the north, and a group covering booths in the Central part of the seat.
The LNP won a 56.9% majority in the centre and 54.5% in Mount Gravatt. The ALP won 54.2% in Wynnum-Manly.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mount Gravatt | 11.67 | 54.45 | 23,206 | 28.24 |
| Wynnum-Manly | 11.92 | 45.83 | 20,298 | 24.70 |
| Central | 9.61 | 56.85 | 19,102 | 23.25 |
| Other votes | 11.37 | 54.22 | 19,559 | 23.80 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Bonner at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Bonner at the 2010 federal election.
There’s something weird going on with the Greens votes in that last map. I doubt suburban Brisbane has any polling booth where the Greens get 46% on primaries.
Argh, you are right. Stuffed up the formula – all those percentages are percentage of the LNP vote, not the total vote.
Will fix it later today, thanks for spotting the error. Please let me know if you see any other errors.
Hi Ben,
You may want to add Dave Nelson who will be the Greens candidate for this seat in 2013. Not sure if he has a webpage, but his Facebook page might be useful.
http://www.facebook.com/Dave4Greens
Vasta will be returned comfortably. In 2004 the LNP held on the federal seat in this area, and only just. Fast forward to 2013 and the LNP hold all but one of the local council wards in the seat and every state electorate. The entire Bonner area sans Wynnum has been trending blue for 2 decades now and it’s not about to stop.
The biggest change is the growth in subdivison around Wakerley/Manly West as thousands of McMansions have poppped up in much the same way as they did in Caridale through early 1990s. This area exploded throughout the late 2000s with white collar professionals and young families taking up residence.
They vote at the Gumdale booth, which now rivals Belmont in terms of size and Liberal % of the vote. With these two booths pinned down by the respective State MP’s and Councillors, any swing back in Wynnum due to the hospital closure will be easily countered. Vasta need only make sure his job is done in Mansfield/Wishart area and he will be home and hosed.
The Labor candidate is virtually unknown except in the Wynum area, in any case.
I expect this seat to be 10%+ for the LNP after the election.
I can’t see the LNP losing this one. Dirk is right in that it is a seat becoming more affluent and will probably tend to vote more LNP than ALP in the future. Might fall to Labor in 2016 however.