South Metropolitan – WA 2017

Incumbent MLCs

  • Kate Doust (Labor), since 2001
  • Phil Edman (Liberal), since 2009
  • Sue Ellery (Labor), since 2001
  • Nick Goiran (Liberal), since 2009
  • Lynn MacLaren (Greens), since 2009. Previously 2005-2005.
  • Simon O’Brien (Liberal), since 1997

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Baldivis ALP 7.7% Fremantle ALP 13.8% South Perth LIB 20%
Bateman LIB 22.6% Jandakot LIB 17.1% Southern River LIB 10.8%
Bicton LIB 9.2% Kwinana ALP 4.1% Victoria Park ALP 4%
Cannington ALP 1.5% Riverton LIB 12.3% Warnbro ALP 10.2%
Cockburn ALP 4.5% Rockingham ALP 13.2% Willagee ALP 2%

The South Metropolitan region covers the southern third of the Perth metropolitan area, stretching from the Swan river to Warnbro.

This region is the most pro-Labor part of the state. Labor holds nine seats, and the Liberal Party holds six.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The South Metropolitan region underwent some major changes in the recent redistribution. The number of seats in metropolitan Perth was increased from 42 to 43, with South Metropolitan gaining a fifteenth seat. The new seat of Baldivis was created in the southern end of the region, with the seat of Kwinana shifting significantly north towards Cockburn. There were also substantial changes on the riverfront, with the seats of Bateman and Bicton reorienting onto a north-south axis.

History
South Metropolitan was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

At the first election in 1989, South Metro elected three Labor and two Liberal MLCs. For five successive elections, the left (Labor and Greens) won three seats to two Liberals.

In 1993, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens’ Jim Scott – the first Green to win a seat in the WA Parliament.

The split of 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens was maintained at the 1993, 1996 and 2001 elections.

Jim Scott retired at the time of the WA state election in 2005, and he was succeeded in the Greens seat by Lynn MacLaren, who then failed to win re-election, and only held the term for a few months.

The ALP regained a third seat at the expense of the Greens in 2005.

In 2008, South Metropolitan became a six-seat region. The ALP lost their third seat to the Greens’ Lynn MacLaren, while the Liberal Party gained a third seat. The parties maintained the same result in 2013.

2013 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuotaSeatsRedist %Redist q.
Liberal 145,05347.4+8.83.3164347.43.3205
Labor 113,02636.9-3.72.5842236.92.5821
Greens 26,9118.8-3.10.615318.70.6116
Australian Christians5,9461.9-0.10.135902.00.1390
Family First5,4661.8-0.30.125001.80.1240
Shooters and Fishers4,6511.5+1.50.106301.50.1070
Others5,1001.7-2.40.116601.70.1154

Five seats were decided on primary votes: the Liberal Party won three seats, and Labor won two seats.

Let’s fast-forward to the last eight candidates racing for the final seat:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.6160 quotas
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.5786
  • Moens (LIB) – 0.3131
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.1368
  • McCourt (FFP) – 0.1274
  • Blevin (SFP) – 0.1068
  • Wilson (IND) – 0.0725
  • Tucak (IND) – 0.0460

Tucak preferences favoured Burdett of the Australian Christians:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.6164
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.5787
  • Moens (LIB) – 0.3135
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.1730
  • McCourt (FFP) – 0.1276
  • Blevin (SFP) – 0.1068
  • Wilson (IND) – 0.0811

Wilson preferences mostly flowed to the Greens’ MacLaren:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.6637
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.5847
  • Moens (LIB) – 0.3213
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.1750
  • McCourt (FFP) – 0.1302
  • Blevin (SFP) – 0.1219

Shooters preferences mostly flowed to the Australian Christians:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.6658
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.5884
  • Moens (LIB) – 0.3256
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.2816
  • McCourt (FFP) – 0.1352

Family First preferences mostly flowed to the Australian Christians, pushing Burdett ahead of the fourth Liberal candidate Moens.

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.6690
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.6090
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.3882
  • Moens (LIB) – 0.3301

Liberal preferences strongly favoured Burdett, pushing him to almost the same level as the Greens candidate:

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 0.6877
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.6820
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.6262

Labor preferences easily handed the seat to the Greens’ Lynn MacLaren.

  • MacLaren (GRN) – 1.2319
  • Burdett (AUC) – 0.6918
  • Wood (ALP) – 0.0721

Candidates

  • A – Sam Wainwright (Socialist Alliance)
  • B – Philip Scott (One Nation)
  • C – Alexander Brownbill (Flux)
  • D – Wilson Tucker (Daylight Saving Party)
  • E – Derek Rucki (Fluoride Free WA)
  • F – Cam Tinley (Micro Business Party)
  • G – Robert Cotterell (Independent)
  • H – Labor
    1. Sue Ellery
    2. Kate Doust
    3. Pierre Yang
    4. Kelly Mcmanus
    5. Vicky Burrows
    6. Dustin Rafferty
  • I – Vito Matarazzo (Independent)
  • J – Peter Raffaelli (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • K – Bob Burdett (Australian Christians)
  • L – Aaron Stonehouse (Liberal Democrats)
  • M – Lynn Maclaren (Greens)
  • N – William Freeman (Independent)
  • O – Katrina Love (Animal Justice)
  • P – Rick Smith (Independent)
  • Q – Andrew Luobikis (Julie Matheson for WA)
  • R – Liberal
    1. Nick Goiran
    2. Simon O’Brien
    3. Phil Edman
    4. Michelle Hofmann
    5. Lorraine Finlay
    6. Daryl Pranata
  • S – Nigel Irvine (Family First)
  • Ungrouped
    • Laona Jones (Independent)
    • Norm Heslington (Independent)
    • Frank Brown (Independent)
    • Rosemary Lorrimar (Independent)
    • Tony Romano (Independent)

Preferences
Preferences have not yet been released.

Assessment
The South Metropolitan region is the most progressive region in the state, but it will still be a tall ask for Labor to gain an additional seat off the Liberal Party – Labor will need to gain about 10% of the vote extra in the form of extra primary votes for Labor or the Greens or extra preferences from minor parties. The Greens are likely to hold their single seat, although it is possible that both major parties could poll around three quotas, and deprive the Greens of a seat.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal vote was highest at the northern end of the region in 2013, while the Labor vote was higher at the southern end.

The Liberal vote was lowest at less than 33% in Fremantle and 34% in Rockingham, and peaked at 63.5% in South Perth and 65% in Bateman.

The Labor vote was lowest at 21% in Bateman and peaked at 53% in Rockingham.

The Greens vote is highest in the north-western corner of the region, with 19% in Fremantle and and 12.3% in Bicton. The Greens vote was only 5.8% in Southern River, in the north-eastern corner of the region.

Results of the 2013 WA upper house election in the South Metropolitan region, by 2017 electorate

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.