Mining and Pastoral – WA 2017

Incumbent MLCs

  • Ken Baston (Liberal), since 2005.
  • Jacqui Boydell (Nationals), since 2013.
  • Robin Chapple (Greens), since 2009. Previously 2001-2005.
  • Stephen Dawson (Labor), since 2013.
  • Dave Grills (Nationals), since 2013.
  • Mark Lewis (Liberal), since 2013.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Kalgoorlie NAT 4.1% vs LIB North West Central NAT 9.6% vs LIB
Kimberley ALP 5.1% Pilbara NAT 11.5% vs ALP

Mining and Pastoral covers a majority of the state’s land mass, stretching from Kalgoorlie to the Kimberley and as far west as Carnarvon.

The Nationals hold three out of four seats in the region, while Kimberley is held by Labor.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The Mining and Pastoral region previously included five electorates, but the seat of Eyre was abolished, with its territory split between Kalgoorlie and Roe (in the Agricultural region) in the recent redistribution.

No changes were made to the boundaries of Pilbara and Kimberley. North West Central expanded to take in parts of Kalgoorlie, while Kalgoorlie shifted south to the ocean. The city of Esperance was shifted out of the region into the Agricultural region.

The redistribution improved the Labor vote by 1.8% and the Greens vote by 0.9%, while cutting the combined Liberal-Nationals vote by 2.7%.

History
Mining and Pastoral was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

The ALP won three seats in 1989, and the Liberal Party won two seats. The same result was replicated in 1993 and 1996.

In 2001, both the ALP and the Liberal Party lost a seat, with those seats going to the Greens and One Nation.

In 2005, the Greens and One Nation both lost their seats, returning to the pattern of three Labor and two Liberal.

In 2009, Mining and Pastoral gained a sixth seat. The ALP lost their third seat, and the two leftover seats went to the Greens and the Nationals. This was the first time the Nationals won a seat in Mining and Pastoral.

In 2013, the Liberal Party maintained its two seats, and the Greens maintained their one seat. Labor lost its second seat to the Nationals.

2013 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuotaSeatsRedist %Redist q.
Liberal 18,35532.1+2.32.2480230.92.1591
Nationals 15,97428.0+6.51.9564226.51.8527
Labor 12,78922.4-11.71.5663124.21.6902
Greens 5,1078.90.00.625519.80.6865
Shooters and Fishers2,1213.7+3.70.259803.80.2637
Family First1,2732.2+0.60.155902.40.1668
Australian Christians1,0161.8-0.10.124401.60.1147
Frank Bertola independents5110.9+0.90.062600.90.0646

Four out of six seats were decided on primary votes, with the Liberal Party winning two seats, and the Nationals and Labor each winning one seat. The second Nationals candidate was very close to a quota on primary votes.

Let’s fast forward to the last eight candidates. The second Nationals candidate (Grills) is still sitting below a quota, having received very few preferences. The Greens and Labor are competing for the sixth seat:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9509
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6273
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5619
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.2619
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2425
  • Rose (FFP) – 0.1597
  • Mansell (AUC) – 0.1253
  • Bertola (IND) – 0.0653

Preferences from independent Frank Bertola pushed the Australian Christians candidate ahead of Family First:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9516
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6289
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5633
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.2675
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2433
  • Mansell (AUC) – 0.1794
  • Rose (FFP) – 0.1607

Most Family First preferences favoured the Shooters and Fishers:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9530
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6318
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5660
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.3947
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2648
  • Mansell (AUC) – 0.1845

Preferences from Christian candidate Mansell favoured the Shooters and Fishers, bringing them close to overtaking the Labor candidate:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9597
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6336
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5674
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.5611
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2728

Liberal preferences pushed the Shooters into second place, while inching the Nationals closer to victory:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9773
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.7827
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6614
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5724

The Labor candidate, having been stranded without preferences, was eliminated and elected the Greens’ Robin Chapple to the fifth seat, and bringing the Nationals’ Grills within six votes of victory:

  • Chapple (GRN) – 1.1913
  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9993
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.8028

Most Greens preferences flowed to the Shooters, but the Nationals narrowly held on. Indeed, the Nationals would have won even if every Greens preference had gone to the Shooters:

  • Grills (NAT) – 1.0086
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.9813

Candidates

  • A – Anne Porter (Fluoride Free WA)
  • B – Natasha Rogers (Micro Business Party)
  • C – Stefan Colagiuri (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • D – Kai Shanks (Flux)
  • E – Amanda Klaj (Daylight Saving Party)
  • F – Paul Fitzgerald (Independent)
  • G – Grahame Gould (Australian Christians)
  • H – Labor
    1. Stephen Dawson
    2. Kyle Mcginn
    3. Peter Foster
    4. Christopher Mousley
  • I – Abed Raouf (Independent)
  • J – Sonya Matheson (Julie Matheson for WA)
  • K – Robin Scott (One Nation)
  • L – Robin Chapple (Greens)
  • M – Angela Hyde (Independent)
  • N – Liberal
    1. Ken Baston
    2. Mark Lewis
    3. Barry Pound
    4. Jason Wells
  • O – Nationals
    1. Jacqui Boydell
    2. Dave Grills
    3. Gary Brown
    4. Judi Janes
    5. Adrian Hatwell
    6. Terry Fleeton
  • P – Jared Neaves (Liberal Democrats)
  • Q – Keith Mader (Independent)
  • R – Ian Rose (Family First)
  • Ungrouped
    • Julie Owen (Independent)
    • Darby Renton (Independent)

Preferences
Preferences have not yet been released.

Assessment
Labor used to be strong in the Mining and Pastoral region. At the first five elections after the introduction of proportional representation, Labor won a majority of seats four times (losing one seat to the Greens in 2001).

Labor has since lost two of its seats to the Nationals at the 2009 and 2013 elections, and the region is now dominated by the conservative parties.

On the left, there are now two seats held by Labor and the Greens. These parties are a long way away from winning a third seat. The ALP may well overtake the Greens and win back a second seat, but a third left seat could only be achieved if Labor can gain additional preferences from less progressive parties and overtake the Nationals or the Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party and Nationals did well to collectively win four seats in 2013, and may well be vulnerable to losing one of those seats. Even if Labor is not in play for the seat, One Nation or the Shooters and Fishers

Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the poll, with a vote strongest at the southern end of the region. The Liberal vote ranged from 27% in Kimberley to 37% in Kalgoorlie.

The Nationals vote peaked at 35% in North West Central, but was as low as 16% in Kimberley.

Labor’s vote was less than 20% in Kalgoorlie, and peaked at 29% in Pilbara.

There is a big range in the Greens vote. The party only polled 4.7% in Kalgoorlie, but reached 23% in Kimberley.

Results of the 2013 WA upper house election in the Mining and Pastoral region, by 2017 electorate

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.