Fremantle – WA 2013

IND vs ALP 4.0%

Incumbent MP
Adele Carles, since 2009.

 

Map of Fremantle’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
South-western Perth. The seat covers the centre of Fremantle, and stretches from Palmyra to North Coogee.

Redistribution
Small changes to the border with Alfred Cove at the northeastern corner of the seat.

History
The seat of Fremantle has existed continuously since 1890. The seat was held by the ALP continuously from 1924 to 2009.

The seat was held from 1980 to 1990 by David Parker. He served as Deputy Premier briefly from 1988 to 1989 and resigned in 1990.

The 1990 by-election was won by Jim McGinty, despite a large swing against the Labor government.

McGinty served as Labor leader from 1994 to 1996, and as Attorney-General from 2001 to 2008.

After the Labor government lost power in 2008, McGinty resigned and triggered the 2009 Fremantle by-election.

The Greens ran Adele Carles, who had polled over 27% at the 2008 election. The ALP ran former Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri.

The ALP’s primary vote stayed steady, but a 16% swing to the Greens on primary votes put Carles on a 44% primary vote, and gave her 54% of the two-candidate vote.

Carles’ time as a Greens MP didn’t last. In 2010 she admitted to an affair with the Treasurer, Troy Buswell. Her relationship with the Greens broke down, and she resigned as a Greens member. She has served out the remainder of her term as an independent.

Candidates

Assessment
A lot has happened in Fremantle since the last vote. Carles is unlikely to perform anywhere near as strongly as last time. The Greens vote was particularly high due to the absence of a Liberal candidate, who will cut into the vote. The Greens and Carles will split the traditional Greens vote, and some of it may even go back to Labor considering Carles’ record in Parliament. The seat is likely to return to Labor.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jim McGinty ALP 7,286 38.7 -5.1
Brian Christie LIB 5,689 30.2 +3.4
Adele Carles GRN 5,191 27.6 +10.5
Julie Hollett CDP 350 1.9 +0.2
AndriƩtte Du Plessis FF 318 1.7 -0.1

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jim McGinty ALP 11,667 62.0 -2.1
Brian Christie LIB 7,147 38.0 +2.1

2009 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Adele Carles GRN 8,722 44.1 +16.5
Peter Tagliaferri ALP 7,632 38.6 -0.1
Carmelo Zagami IND 999 5.1 +5.1
Nik Varga IND 701 3.5 +3.5
Sam Wainwright IND 454 2.3 +2.3
Steve Boni IND 340 1.7 +1.7
Julie Hollett CDP 339 1.7 -0.2
AndriƩtte Du Plessis FF 194 1.0 -0.7
Jan Ter Horst IND 188 1.0 +1.0
Rosemary Anne Lorrimar IND 171 0.9 +0.9
Rob Totten CEC 56 0.3 +0.3

2009 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Adele Carles GRN 10,664 54.0
Peter Tagliaferri ALP 9,100 46.0

 

Polling booths in Fremantle at the 2008 WA state election. North in blue, West in green, South in orange.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. Booths in ‘West’ cover the area around the centre of Fremantle. The other areas are to the north and south of that area.

This grouping is used for both the 2008 result and the 2009 by-election. For the 2008 results, booths have been redistributed according to the redistribution. No redistribution has been imposed on the by-election result.

At the 2008 election, the Labor Party topped the poll in the south and west. The Liberal Party topped the poll, with almost 39%, in the north. The Greens vote peaked at 33.6% in the west, and also beat the Liberals in the south.

At the 2009 by-election, the Greens topped the poll in the north and west, with almost 53% in the west. The ALP won (43.9% vs 41.5%) in the south.

2008 election breakdown

Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
South 44.66 22.95 28.10 5,537 36.06
North 32.91 38.96 20.22 5,105 33.25
West 37.19 26.33 33.55 4,713 30.69
Other votes 38.59 32.14 26.20 4,512

2009 by-election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP % Total votes % of votes
South 41.54 43.85 6,011 30.36
North 42.89 33.87 4,924 24.87
West 52.94 32.93 4,679 23.64
Other votes 39.12 42.73 4,182 21.13

Labor primary votes in Fremantle at the 2008 WA state election

Liberal primary votes in Fremantle at the 2008 WA state election

Greens primary votes in Fremantle at the 2008 WA state election

Polling booths in Fremantle at the 2008 WA state election, showing which booths had a higher vote for the Greens or the Liberals.

Greens primary votes at the 2009 Fremantle by-election.

Labor primary votes at the 2009 Fremantle by-election.