South Eastern Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Gavin Jennings (Labor), since 2006. Previously MLC for Melbourne 1999-2006
  • Inga Peulich (Liberal), since 2006
  • Gordon Rich-Phillips (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for Eumemmerring 1999-2006
  • Adem Somyurek (Labor), since 2006. Previously MLC for Eumemmerring 2002-2006
  • Nina Springle (Greens), since 2014

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Carrum ALP 0.7% Frankston ALP 0.5% Narre Warren North ALP 4.6%
Clarinda ALP 15.8% Keysborough ALP 11.9% Narre Warren South ALP 5.5%
Cranbourne ALP 2.3% Mordialloc ALP 2.1% Rowville LIB 8.4%
Dandenong ALP 12.9% Mulgrave ALP 4.5%

The South Eastern Metropolitan region covers Melbourne’s outer south-eastern suburbs, stretching from Clayton and Rowville in the north to Frankston and Cranbourne in the south, and from Mordialloc in the west to Narre Warren in the east.

The region includes ten Labor seats and one Liberal seat.

History
The South Eastern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The first election saw three Labor and two Liberal MLCs elected. The 2010 election repeated the same result.

Labor lost their third seat to the Greens in 2014.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Labor 168,80340.1-2.92.4060
Liberal 148,23635.2-6.22.1129
Greens 26,4896.3-2.20.3776
Family First11,2292.7-0.60.1601
Sex Party11,2392.7+2.70.1602
Democratic Labour Party9,3452.2-0.50.1332
Palmer United Party8,3302.0+2.00.1187
Animal Justice7,8401.9+1.90.1117
Liberal Democrats7,3001.7+1.70.1040
Australian Christians5,6561.3+1.30.0806
Rise Up Australia5,3241.3+1.30.0759
Shooters and Fishers5,2111.2+1.20.0743
Voluntary Euthanasia2,4080.6+0.60.0343
Others3,5410.8
Informal17,1213.9

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor and Liberal each won two seats.

We can fast forward to the last nine candidates running for the last seat:

  • Nina Springle (GRN) – 0.4007 quotas
  • Lee Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.3972
  • Daniel Nalliah (RUA) – 0.3417
  • Martin Leahy (SXP) – 0.1941
  • Lynette Harland (FF) – 0.1675
  • Michael Palma (DLP) – 0.1385
  • Bobby Singh (PUP) – 0.1187
  • Elio Celotto (AJP) – 0.1184
  • Ali Khan (LIB) – 0.1121

The third Liberal candidate was knocked out, with his preferences flowing to Family First:

  • Springle (GRN) – 0.4014
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.3980
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.3422
  • Harland (FF) – 0.2660
  • Leahy (SXP) – 0.1948
  • Palma (DLP) – 0.1389
  • Singh (PUP) – 0.1198
  • Celotto (AJP) – 0.1189

Animal Justice preferences pushed the Sex Party into fourth:

  • Springle (GRN) – 0.4048
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.3993
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.3438
  • Leahy (SXP) – 0.2991
  • Harland (FF) – 0.2676
  • Palma (DLP) – 0.1403
  • Singh (PUP) – 0.1201

Palmer United preferences pushed the Greens further into the lead:

  • Springle (GRN) – 0.5170
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.4000
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.3445
  • Leahy (SXP) – 0.3002
  • Harland (FF) – 0.2684
  • Palma (DLP) – 0.1408

DLP preferences flowed to Rise Up Australia, pushing them ahead of Labor:

  • Springle (GRN) – 0.5183
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.4734
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.4018
  • Leahy (SXP) – 0.3014
  • Harland (FF) – 0.2708

Family First preferences also flowed to Rise Up Australia:

  • Springle (GRN) – 0.5202
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.6312
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.4032
  • Leahy (SXP) – 0.4000

Sex Party preferences went to the Greens:

  • Springle (GRN) – 0.7989
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.6353
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.5056

Labor was knocked out, and their preferences flowed to the Greens, electing Springle to the fifth seat:

  • Springle (GRN) – 1.1745
  • Nalliah (RUA) – 0.6392
  • Tarlamis (ALP) – 0.0975

Candidates

  • A – Labor
    1. Gavin Jennings
    2. Adem Somyurek
    3. Tien Dung Kieu
  • B – Ali Khan (Transport Matters)
  • C – Tamsin King (Health Australia)
  • D – Tarang Chawla (Independent)
  • E – Liberal
    1. Gordon Rich-Phillips
    2. Inga Peulich
    3. George Hua
  • F – David Limbrick (Liberal Democrats)
  • G – Kassandra Hall (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • H – Laura Chipp (Reason)
  • I – Nina Springle (Greens)
  • J – Janette Sinclair (Hudson for Northern Victoria)
  • K – Andrew Hepner (Country Party)
  • L – Aran Mylvaganam (Socialists)
  • M – Chris Banhidy (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • N – David Armstrong (Aussie Battler)
  • O – Peter Stevens (Democratic Labour)
  • P – Elizabeth Johnston (Animal Justice)
  • Q – David Maddison (Australian Liberty Alliance)
  • R – Peter Davy (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • S – Anthony Cresswell (Sustainable Australia)
  • Ungrouped
    • Stewart Hine
    • Peter Mack
    • Bobby Singh

Assessment
Labor would be hoping to win back a third seat, either from the Liberal Party or the Greens. The Greens polled quite poorly in this region in 2014, and relied on a fortuitous preference flow. It wouldn’t take much for the Greens to lose their seat to Labor.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote in South Eastern Metropolitan region, and also topped the poll in seven out of eleven districts.

Labor’s vote peaked in Dandenong and Kesyborough.

The Liberal vote was relatively higher in the south, but also did much better in Rowville at the northern end of the region.

The Greens did better in the seats closer to the waterfront.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the South Eastern Metropolitan region

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