Northern Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Nazih Elasmar (Labor), since 2006
  • Jenny Mikakos (Labor), since 2006. Previously MLC for Jika Jika 1999-2006
  • Craig Ondarchie (Liberal), since 2010
  • Fiona Patten (Reason), since 2014
  • Samantha Ratnam (Greens), since 20171

1Samantha Ratnam replaced Greg Barber on 19 October 2017 following Greg Barber’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Broadmeadows ALP 27.8% Mill Park ALP 19.9% Richmond ALP 1.9% vs GRN
Brunswick ALP 2.2% vs GRN Northcote GRN 5.6% vs ALP Thomastown ALP 28.4%
Bundoora ALP 12.2% Pascoe Vale ALP 16.8% Yuroke ALP 18.5%
Melbourne GRN 2.4% vs ALP Preston ALP 24.7%

Northern Metropolitan covers the Melbourne CBD and areas to the north of Melbourne, with the southern boundary following the Yarra River.

Nine out of eleven seats in this region are held by the ALP, while Melbourne and Northcote are held by the Greens.

There is a cluster of four seats at the southern end of the region where the Greens are the main rival to the ALP.

Further north, there is a large cluster of very safe Labor seats, ranging from 12.2% in Bundoora to 28.4% in Thomastown.

History
The Northern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

At the first election in 2006, Labor won three seats, while the Liberal Party and the Greens win one seat each. In 2010, the Liberal Party won a second seat off Labor.

That second Liberal seat fell to Fiona Patten of the Sex Party (now Reason) in 2014.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Labor 166,41240.4-4.42.4235
Liberal 90,07121.9-2.81.3117
Greens 76,47618.6-0.21.1137
Democratic Labour Party12,1262.90.00.1766
Sex Party11,8402.9-1.00.1724
Family First7,9681.9-0.60.1160
Animal Justice6,2051.5+1.50.0904
Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll6,3401.5+1.50.0923
Liberal Democrats6,0831.5+1.50.0886
Australian Christians5,6701.4+1.40.0826
Palmer United Party4,8991.2+1.20.0713
Shooters and Fishers4,4761.1+1.10.0652
Cyclists Party3,3840.8+0.80.0493
Others10,0482.4
Informal22,9325.3

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats, while the Liberal and Greens parties each won one.

Let’s fast forward to the last ten candidates competing for the final seat. The Sex Party, Family First and Animal Justice had done best out of the early counting:

  • Burhan Yigit (ALP) – 0.4202 quotas
  • Gladys Liu (LIB) – 0.3107
  • Fiona Patten (SXP) – 0.2552
  • Brendan Fenn (FF) – 0.2318
  • Bruce Poon (AJP) – 0.1809
  • Michael Murphy (DLP) – 0.1793
  • Alex Bhathal (GRN) – 0.1246
  • Kris Schroeder (BRRP) – 0.0975
  • David Limbrick (LDP) – 0.0914
  • Maria Bengtsson (CHR) – 0.0873

Australian Christians preferences flowed to Family First, and then the LDP’s preferences flowed to the Sex Party:

  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.4207
  • Liu (LIB) – 0.3123
  • Patten (SXP) – 0.3422
  • Fenn (FF) – 0.3102
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.1831
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.1805
  • Bhathal (GRN) – 0.1256
  • Schroeder (BRRP) – 0.0984

Preferences from the Basics Rock N Roll Party pushed the Sex Party ahead of the Liberal Party, and close to catching up with Labor:

  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.4217
  • Patten (SXP) – 0.4186
  • Liu (LIB) – 0.3141
  • Fenn (FF) – 0.3114
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.1865
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.1813
  • Bhathal (GRN) – 0.1316

Greens preferences favoured the Sex Party, pushing Fiona Patten into the lead:

  • Patten (SXP) – 0.4755
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.4480
  • Liu (LIB) – 0.3150
  • Fenn (FF) – 0.3118
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.1965
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.1823

DLP preferences flowed almost entirely to Family First, pushing Fenn into the lead:

  • Fenn (FF) – 0.4781
  • Patten (SXP) – 0.4764
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.4499
  • Liu (LIB) – 0.3164
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.1993

Animal Justice preferences mostly flowed to the Sex Party, putting Patten back in the lead.

  • Patten (SXP) – 0.6129
  • Fenn (FF) – 0.5135
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.4558
  • Liu (LIB) – 0.3176

The Liberal Party, being almost entirely starved of preferences, were excluded next. Their preferences flowed mostly to Family First:

  • Fenn (FF) – 0.8073
  • Patten (SXP) – 0.6153
  • Yigit (ALP) – 0.4578

Labor preferences elected Patten in the final seat. The margin was just over 15,000 votes.

  • Patten (SXP) – 1.0297
  • Fenn (FF) – 0.8101

Candidates

  • A – Nathan Purcell (Vote 1 Local Jobs)
  • B – Walter Mikac (Aussie Battler)
  • C – Mark McDonald (Sustainable Australia)
  • D – Cameron Stoddart (Country Party)
  • E – Fiona Patten (Reason)
  • F – Sandra McCarthy (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • G – Louise Hitchcock (Liberal Democrats)
  • H – Pippa Campbell (Health Australia)
  • I – Liberal
    1. Craig Ondarchie
    2. Evan Mulholland
    3. Neelam Rai
  • J – Samantha Ratnam (Greens)
  • K – Moti Visa (Transport Matters)
  • L – Stephen Jolly (Socialists)
  • M – John McBride (Democratic Labour)
  • N – Russell Gomez (Australian Liberty Alliance)
  • O – Labor
    1. Jenny Mikakos
    2. Nazih Elasmar
    3. Burhan Yigit
  • P – Carmela Dagiandis (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • Q – Bruce Poon (Animal Justice)
  • R – Ethan Constantinou (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • S – Madison Wright (Hudson for Northern Victoria)

Assessment
Fiona Patten, now representing the renamed Reason party, benefited from a very strong preference flow. She’ll be hoping to increase her primary vote, but those preference flows can be fickle and hard to predict.

The ALP would be hoping to regain their third seat.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote in this region.

Labor comfortably topped the primary vote in the seven northernmost districts, while the Greens topped the primary vote in the four southernmost districts.

Labor’s vote was strongest at the northern end of the region and gradually dropped as you move south, while the Greens were the opposite.

The Liberal vote was strongest in the two easternmost districts of Bundoora and Mill Park.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Metropolitan region

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13 COMMENTS

  1. I think Fiona Patten is in the best position in comparison to all the other micro parties. She has a very large name recognition and looks to be campaigning very hard. They have been at the MCG handing out flyers ahead of footy games. Last night they launched their new campaign office. Their campaign seems to be very professional and polished. Thus i think there is a strong chance that Patten could increase her vote to 6% or more which puts her in the hunt for the last seat.

  2. The Victorian Socialists (Stephen Jolly) could surprise here. They turned out out hundreds of people to their major launch events and those people, particularly at their last policy (manifesto) launch, haven’t been just usual SAlt types.

    No campaign turns out those sorts of numbers to be physically present without a lot of underlying community support.

    They could quite possibly attain a higher primary vote than what the Sex Party achieved in 2014 and regardless of Fiona Patten’s name recognition, the change of name to Reason will lose them that novilty vote and position them in an already very crowded Centre.

    Final seat will be close between Patten and Jolly and will depend on where Labor and the Greens direct their preferences to IMO.

  3. Patten will struggle on primaries when people don’t see Sex Party and see a new party on the ballot and could struggle to get 3-4%, let alone 6%. Entirely dependent on preferences between Labor’s 3rd, Socialists 1st & Reason’s 1st, GTV preferences will be very interesting. Greens & Libs will both hold onto their quota & Labor would want to get further than 2.4 quotas to claim their 3rd seat.

  4. The final seat will be a close contest between Fiona Patten and Stephen Jolly. Greens will most likely preference Jolly 2nd, Vic Socialists could pick up the seat if Labor preferences them a head of Fiona Patten.

  5. Idk, Patten has a high name recognition, and Reason should be highly visible during the campaign. I think she’ll manage to fend off the Socialists, even if it does cut quite close, like a few thousand votes between.

  6. One way to look at this is that combined ‘left’ would have to be 66.67% to elect 4/5 = 2 Lab + 1 Grn + 1 micro left. Sex last time were able to steal votes from the right by preference deals that only they could do. If Socialists are last ‘left’ in the running they would probably lose to the micro right.

  7. I think Fiona Patten & Reason are in with a good chance. They are everywhere on the ground. There are many Reason corflutes and signs. Additionally, they may be able to gain votes by running campaigns in the lower house. Plus, every morning this week the Patten team have been at train and bus stations, handing our flyers.
    I could see Pattens vote rising to probably above 5%, Whether she gets preferences is another story.

  8. The Liberals not running (unless they do a pre-deadline backflip) will likely help reason in the 4 Legislative Assembly seats they hold and that will help them in the Northern Metro.

    If it came down to Reason or the Socialists, any Christian/religious conservative parties that have any votes left may support the socialists.

  9. The Liberals can kiss goodbye any change of winning a second seat, they might even struggle to win one seat after not bothering to run in four lower house seats.

  10. I think Reason have their work cut out for them based on the ticket preferences. DHJP appear to be the anointed micro in this region. I figure the first four seats go pretty easily ALP, LIB, ALP, GRN, and then a four-way battle for the final seat between ALP, LIB, Reason and DHJP. By that point there will be a little under two quotas worth of votes in play, so an average of about 8% each.

    First task for Reason is not to be last at this point – maybe achievable if they can boost their primary to 4%+ and collect say 2-3% from the few micros that are preferencing them ahead of DHJP (just Vote1, Voluntary Euthanasia, Animal Justice and the Socialists I think). The problem is that if it is the Liberals that are last (very plausible unless they get a swing from last election), their ticket goes to DHJP.

    The best chance for Reason is if they can beat the ALP#3 and get their ticket votes. That’s not impossible, but the problem is that if the ALP loses ground to the Greens, the Greens will get their seat with a significant excess, which goes to DHJP.

    I think Reason are still in with a chance – Patten’s profile may allow them an even higher primary, or maybe DHJP could get tripped up and eliminated early if one of the other micros polls better than expected. But I have a bad feeling that the preference-whisperers might have a win here.

  11. ABC site is showing not even a single Liberal get up in the region. I know North Metro is not really a strong region for them, but getting zilch has really got to sting. But it’s another example of the need to reform the above the line vote to be in line with the federal Senate reforms (below the line is already optional preferential with the minimum equal to the number required in the region). How Derryn Hinch’s party with 10% of a quota primary can collect basically all other minor party preferences to overtake the Libs who had 90% of a quota to win a seat is beyond me.

  12. The Liberals will get a seat. The LC count doesn’t include any early votes yet and the last seat is close enough between Liberal and Labor that the Libs will almost certainly get up once they come into the tally.

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