Ivanhoe – Victoria 2018

ALP 3.4%

Incumbent MP
Anthony Carbines, since 2010.

Geography
Northern Melbourne. Ivanhoe covers southern parts of the City of Banyule. Ivanhoe covers the suburbs of Eaglemont, Heidelberg, Ivanhoe, Rosanna, View Bank and parts of Macleod and Yallambie.

History
Ivanhoe was first created for the 1945 Victorian state election. In that time, it has alternated between the major parties, although it was predominantly held by the Liberal Party before the ALP gained it most recently in 1996.

Ivanhoe was first won in 1945 by independent candidate Robert Gardner, who was a journalist and community organiser. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1947 to the Liberal Party’s Rupert Curnow.

Curnow died in December 1950, and the 1951 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Frank Block.

Block was defeated by the ALP’s Michael Lucy in 1952. Lucy left the ALP in 1955 to join the Anti-Communist ALP, which became the Democratic Labor Party. He lost his seat at the 1955 election to the Liberal Party’s Vernon Christie.

Christie held the seat for eighteen years, retiring in 1973. The seat was won by race-caller Bruce Skeggs for the Liberal Party. He lost the seat in 1982 to the ALP’s Tony Sheehan, although later won the Legislative Council province of Templestowe in 1988, holding it until 1996.

Sheehan lost Ivanhoe in 1985, but later held the neighbouring seat of Northcote from 1988 to 1998.

In 1985, Ivanhoe was won by Vin Heffernan of the Liberal Party. He held Ivanhoe until his defeat in 1996. The seat had long been a solidly Liberal seat, but the 1992 redistribution made the seat notionally Labor. Heffernan managed to hold on in 1992, but in 1996 he lost to the ALP’s Craig Langdon.

Langdon held the seat for the next fourteen years, but in 2009 was defeated for Labor preselection, and then resigned from Parliament in August 2010, predicting that his successor would fail to hold the seat.

Langdon’s prediction was proven untrue, and Anthony Carbines won the seat as the Labor candidate in 2010. Carbines was re-elected in 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Ivanhoe is a marginal Labor seat, but will likely stay in Labor hands.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Carl Ziebell Liberal 15,73040.0-2.0
Anthony Carbines Labor 14,13336.0+0.1
Paul Kennedy Greens 6,14715.6-1.8
Craig LangdonIndependent1,9054.8+4.8
Gurmender GrewalAustralian Christians5581.4+1.4
Jesse BoerFamily First4741.2+0.9
Abdirizak H. MohamedIndependent3550.9+0.9
Informal1,8904.6

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Anthony Carbines Labor 20,99153.4+1.6
Carl Ziebell Liberal 18,31146.6-1.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Ivanhoe have been divided into three areas: north, south and central.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.2% in the south-west to 62.1% in the north-west.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 13.9% in the north-east to 18.3% in the south-west.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-West18.350.210,12625.8
North-East13.953.37,83319.9
North-West14.662.15,53314.1
Other votes14.649.34,80512.2
Pre-poll15.452.011,00528.0

Election results in Ivanhoe at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

9 COMMENTS

  1. It’s interesting that Ivanhoe had been a Liberal leaning seat until the pre-1992 redistribution. I would love to see what the boundaries looked like in 1988.

    A sophomore surge of 1.6% looks underwhelming in the context of 2014.

  2. DW, I’m pretty sure the boundaries excluded the West Heidelberg public housing area (those big solid Labor booths in the north west) before 1992.

  3. Interestingly the Greens actually won the (single member) council ward covering Ivanhoe and Eaglemont, where all the blue booths are.

    I don’t see Liberals winning here. I also expect a good showing from Greens (>20%) as one of their best seats in East Metro (which they’ll be hoping to retain), the aforementioned council result, and some spillover from the other side of Darebin creek.

  4. John those same booths that went to Peter Castaldo for the Greens in the Griffin Ward of the Banyule City Council didn’t go nearly as Green in the federal election a few months before.The lack of a Labor council candidate boosting his primary vote? Still wouldn’t explain how he beat the Liberal in the final 2PP (by a lot!) when Labor don’t here.

    Was the incumbent Liberal councillor Jenny Mulholland unpopular? A very embarrassing loss for her, getting 34% primary vote in an area that has ~50% Liberal primary at the state and federal elections.

    I guess we’ll find out if it was just Mulholland’s fault, just a good candidate in Castaldo, or growth in support for The Greens generally in the area in the next state and federal election.

  5. I’m interested in what others think the effect, if any, of the level crossing removal/duplication works might be? Particularly in the ‘weaker’ ALP booths around Rosanna and MacLeod in the NE?

  6. I imagine a new railway station and the removal of a level crossing would only bolster support for Labor. They can’t be accused of not doing anything in the area. Though the inconvenience during the works may have frustrated some.

  7. A more significant local issue here will probably be the North East Link.

    Will locals be happy at the prospect of traffic being taken off local streets? Roads around Heidelberg can be absolute car parks at all hours of the day.

    Or will they be angry at the prospect of tunnelling/construction around waterways and parklands, and major expansion of existing freeways that will be required?

  8. Mulholland used to be ALP. Then left to be independent. She became Liberal friendly, and ALP came to dislike her once she had a fight with them.

    There were many ALP and Lib that ran, just not under the name.

    Griffin was actually predicted as the only one to go green before 2020.

  9. My prediction: Likely Labor hold, and will probably be just out of reach for the Liberals on these boundaries until their next 1992-style win.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here