Eastern Victoria – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Melina Bath (Nationals), since 20151
  • Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2014
  • Daniel Mulino (Labor), since 2014
  • Edward O’Donohue (Liberal), since 2006
  • Harriet Shing (Labor), since 2014

1Melina Bath replaced Danny O’Brien on 16 April 2015 following Danny O’Brien’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Bass LIB 4.6% Gippsland South NAT 15.7% Morwell NAT 1.8%
Evelyn LIB 9.6% Hastings LIB 7.6% Narracan LIB 11.3%
Gembrook LIB 9.0% Monbulk ALP 5.0% Nepean LIB 7.6%
Gippsland East NAT 17.9% Mornington LIB 12.6%

Eastern Victoria covers regional and rural areas to the east of Melbourne all the way to Gippsland, as well as some seats on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne.

Seven out of eleven seats are held by the Liberal Party, while three are held by the Nationals. One seat, Monbulk, is held by Labor.

Five seats cover areas well away from Melbourne: Morwell and Narracan in the Latrobe Valley, Gippsland East and Gippsland South in the Gippsland area, and Bass on the eastern side of Western Port.

The electorates of Hastings, Mornington and Nepean all cover areas on the Mornington Peninsula at the south-eastern edge of the Melbourne urban area. Evelyn, Gembrook and Monbulk cover semi-urban areas on the eastern fringe of Melbourne.

History
The Eastern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

Eastern Victoria produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 election – two Liberal, two Labor and one National.

The Liberal Party lost one of their two seats in 2014, with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning a seat.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal/Nationals 181,57841.6-11.52.4942
Labor 126,66729.0+0.61.7400
Greens 37,0538.5-1.80.5090
Liberal Democrats20,7124.7+4.70.2845
Sex Party10,8832.5+2.50.1495
Shooters and Fishers10,6602.4+2.40.1464
Palmer United Party10,1682.3+2.30.1397
Animal Justice8,2901.9+1.90.1139
Family First7,3721.7-1.60.1013
Voluntary Euthanasia5,2881.2+1.20.0726
Country Alliance4,2931.0-2.20.0590
Australian Christians4,4701.0+1.00.0614
Democratic Labour Party3,0800.7-1.20.0423
Rise Up Australia2,5550.6+0.60.0351
Others3,7190.9
Informal13,3353.0

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal/National team retained two seats, and Labor retained one seat.

Let’s fast-forward until there were thirteen candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Daniel Mulino (ALP) – 0.7342 quotas
  • Andrea Millsom (GRN) – 0.5052
  • Andrew Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4910
  • Jim McDonald (LDP) – 0.2836
  • Jeffrey Bourman (SFP) – 0.2169
  • Ange Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1522
  • Sarah Taylor (PUP) – 0.1416
  • Kristin Bacon (AJP) – 0.1181
  • Trudie Morris (FF) – 0.1043
  • Meg Paul (VEP) – 0.0753
  • Ash Belsar (CHR) – 0.0637
  • Andrew Jones (ACA) – 0.0617
  • Gary Jenkins (DLP) – 0.0441

DLP preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, and then Country Alliance preferences flowed to the LDP:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7351
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5057
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4925
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.3374
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.2575
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1528
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1423
  • Bacon (AJP) – 0.1189
  • Morris (FF) – 0.1059
  • Paul (VEP) – 0.0757
  • Belsar (CHR) – 0.0645

Australian Christians preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, and then Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed to the LDP:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7373
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5092
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4953
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.3985
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.3106
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1558
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1433
  • Bacon (AJP) – 0.1210
  • Morris (FF) – 0.1137

Family First preferences pushed the Shooters and Fishers into fourth place, ahead of the LDP:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7385
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5098
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5010
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.4051
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.3997
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1561
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1442
  • Bacon (AJP) – 0.1228

Animal Justice preferences flowed to the Sex Party:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7402
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5139
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5019
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.4057
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.4002
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.2630
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1451

Palmer United preferences again favoured the Shooters, pushing them into second ahead of the Liberal and Greens candidates:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7416
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.5399
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5151
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5030
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.4010
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.2641

Sex Party preferences split between the Shooters and the Greens:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7443
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.6774
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.6269
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5046
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.4030

LDP preferences mostly flowed towards the Shooters, but with some going to the Greens and the Liberal Party:

  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.9522
  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7451
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.6887
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5619

Liberal preferences flowed most strongly towards Labor, with some going to the Shooters. Labor and the Shooters won the last two seats:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 1.2172
  • Bourman (SFP) – 1.0097
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.6909

Candidates

  • A – Leah Folloni (Animal Justice)
  • B – Trevor Salmon (Transport Matters)
  • C – Ben Buckley (Liberal Democrats)
  • D – Michelle Hain (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • E – Geoff Pain (Health Australia)
  • F – Mark Brown (Australian Liberty Alliance)
  • G – Tom Cummings (Greens)
  • H – Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • I – Rhonda Crooks (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • J – Labor
    1. Jane Garrett
    2. Harriet Shing
    3. Patrick Kelly
  • K – Megan Whittaker (Hudson for Northern Victoria)
  • L – Reade Smith (Sustainable Australia)
  • M – Rob Danieli (Country Party)
  • N – Lainie Cruse (Socialists)
  • O – Vern Hughes (Aussie Battler)
  • P – Liberal/Nationals
    1. Edward O’Donohue
    2. Melina Bath
    3. Meg Edwards
  • Q – Padraig O’Hea (Democratic Labour)
  • R – Carmel Close (Reason)
  • Ungrouped
    • Michael Fozard

Assessment
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers hold their seat in part thanks to very strong and fortuitous preference flows. There’s a good chance this won’t work out in the same way in 2018, although it’s also possible that they will consolidate a larger primary vote to offset this risk.

The Coalition would be hoping to regain a third seat in this region.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal/National ticket topped the poll in Eastern Victoria. This ticket topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven districts in the region.

The Liberal/National vote was highest in Gippsland East and Mornington. It was lowest in Morwell and Bass.

Labor’s primary vote was highest in Morwell and Monbulk. The Greens did particularly well in Monbulk and Nepean.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Victoria region

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11 COMMENTS

  1. It will be interesting to see how much profile the SFF MLCs have garnered in their 4 years to pump up their primary vote. That’s a big test of a “micro” party trying to become a “minor” party.

    They certainly cannot rely on 2-4% primary vote to keep winning them seats.

  2. With a Labour -DLP, Country Party and Vern Hughes all standing with virtually identical policies the question they should face is why are uou standing when others have identical policies? Why are you not all in same party?
    Andrew Jackson

  3. Andrew Jackson, because putting more above the line boxes greatly increases the chances one of them wins in the preference harvesting fun and games.

  4. Benee
    I understand preference harvesting but it only works when you are harvesting from outside of voting range. I just think that splitting vote before merging votes is counter productive.

  5. You get flat out more votes by having more boxes above the line, especially when one of the feeder parties starts with the word “Labour.”

    It’s pretty obvious if you think about it. Imagine the 2013 federal senate election in Victoria with only 7 candidates in 4 above the line groups.

    Liberals
    1. Mitch Fifield
    2. Scott Ryan
    3. Helen Kroger

    Labor
    1. Gavin Marshall
    2. Jacinta Colins

    Greens
    1. Janet Rice

    Motoring Enthusiasts
    1. Ricky Muir

    What would Ricky Muir’s primary vote be? 5% of the vote? Certainly nowhere near the 14.5% he crawled to on preferences in the actual election

  6. Benee
    Ricky Muir got over the line by harvesting from those who did not want majors. If
    He had been only candidate of this group where would the votes have gone? As someone who would vote for Country Party, Labor-DLP or Vern Hughes I see no advantage in splitting vote and then merging it again.
    Interesting point is that no one addressed the question I put what is difference between the three of them?
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  7. Andrew, you have no idea what the motivation was for the voters who voted for other minor parties and ended up electing Ricky Muir. You assume that their primary motivation was to prevent a major party from winning, but evidence from voters marking their own preferences in 2016 suggests that isn’t true. People support one party they like and then will often go to a major party they know, certainly not willing to support a minor party with very different principles.

    If Ricky Muir had been the only micro-party candidate standing I suspect a lot of those voters would’ve preferred a major party over him.

    On a big ballot paper, voters won’t have the ability to assess each candidate fully, so having multiple options on the ballot paper (and thus a chance one of them gets a good ballot draw) gives you the ability to draw in more voters.

  8. Former AMEP MP Ricky Muir turned out to be a good federal parliamentarian until idiot Turnbull called a double dissolution election. Liberal Helen Kroger mentioned here was a dud Senator while Jane Garrett has been a great MP in Victoria’s lower house.

    An article in today newspaper (15 Nov 18) states that UFU fuhrer Marshal says voters should put Garrett last on the ballot paper, what rubbish. While the MFB do a good job fighting fires for the most part these over paid firemen sit around the station playing card or cleaning equipment and mostly attend false alarms caused by idiot office workers and CBD businesses who are lax in fire prevention and building maintenance.

  9. Ben
    Firstly once again thankyou for a most informative medium
    Secondly I “do not assume that the primary motivation of minor party voters is to prevent major party candidates from getting in” Most minor party voters ( at least those who voted for Country Party Aussie BAttler DLP and Katter) are socially conservative supporters of a mixed economy. I described this as Deakin Compromise a few months back. They want Arbitrated wages, govt ownership of natural monoplies, centralised marketing of farm produce, a fair go for pensioners, cheap electricity and gas. The parties describe this in different ways DLP talks about Social Justice and Distibutism, Katter is not offended to be called an agrarian socialist but in reality these are the same things. ALP and Liberals would now both prefer powe to ideological victory. I guess it is difficult for those of us driven by ideology to be enamoured by either major party but my goal is a break up of both major parties with the good men in both forming the government. Too much time taken up on talking about crime and not enough in limiting judicial failures. Too much time on Islamic terrorism and not enough on successful Islamic integration. Too much time on power stations and not enough on making electricity affordable. Government has a role in running all schools all hospitals primary, secondary and tertiary industry in a hierarchy of involvement stating at advising followed by gentle regulation increasing to heavy regulation with a final step of ownership where regulation is a failure.

    My motivation is to use my preference s till it flows to the least objectionable candidate. For this reason both majors went ahead of 3 extremist candidates the last vote I cast ie One Nation were better than the Greens and the Greens were better than an ex NAZI.

    The two advantages of making voters number every one of 212 boxes is that:
    1) the increased informal vote will come from the politically ignorant (ALP and One Nation) and
    2) the influence of the politically informed will increase
    The disadvantage is that many of the politically informed are informed by the wrong informtion sources (Greens, Lyndon LaRouche or League of Rights)

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  10. Do you have any evidence for your claim about those supporters? There’s quite a lot of evidence in the 2016 Senate preference data to disprove your argument.

    As an example, the DLP had 16,934 primary votes in the Senate in Victoria in 2016. When they were first distributed, 1896 went to Family First, but 1532 also went to Labor, 1212 to the Greens and 1184 to the LNP. That doesn’t sound like people “who did not want majors”.

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