Mulgrave – Victoria 2014

ALP 2.4%

Incumbent MP
Daniel Andrews, since 2002.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Mulgrave includes Mulgrave, Wheelers Hill and parts of Dandenong North, Noble Park, Noble Park North and Springvale. Mulgrave covers the south-eastern corner of the City of Monash and northern parts of the City of Greater Dandenong.

Map of Mulgrave's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Map of Mulgrave’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Mulgrave shifted north, gaining the remainder of Wheelers Hill from Scoresby on the northern end of the electorate. In exchange, Mulgrave lost areas on its western boundary to Oakleigh and areas on its eastern boundary to Dandenong. No changes were made to Mulgrave’s southern boundary. These changes cut the ALP margin from 8.5% to 2.4%.

History
Mulgrave previously existed as a Liberal seat from 1958 to 1967, and was re-established in 2002. The original seat was considered a marginal Labor seat, with a 4.4% margin, but it was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Daniel Andrews, who gained an 11.8% swing.

Andrews was re-elected in 2006, and was then promoted to the ministry. He served as Minister for Health in the Brumby government from 2007 to 2010. Andrews was elected to a third term in Mulgrave in 2010, and shortly after the election was elected as Leader of the Opposition.

Candidates

Assessment
Mulgrave is a very marginal electorate, but considering the likely swing to Labor, and Daniel Andrews’ high profile as Labor leader, should see Mulgrave stay in the Labor column.

2010 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Daniel Andrews Labor 15,39250.68-8.1344.87
Courtney Mann Liberal 11,16636.77+8.1843.41
John Janetzki Greens 2,1737.16+0.747.28
Jim JohnsonFamily First1,0413.43-2.753.00
Geraldine KokoszkaDemocratic Labor5961.96+1.961.44

2010 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Daniel Andrews Labor 17,77958.48-7.2952.40
Courtney Mann Liberal 12,62341.52+7.2947.60
Polling places in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election. North in green, South-East in orange, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election. North in green, South-East in orange, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three parts: North, South-East and South-West.

The ALP won solid majorities in the south-east (62.1%) and the south-west (59.7%). In the north, the Liberal Party won a solid 60.4% majority.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total% of votes
North7.4339.589,80127.38
South-East6.4762.089,05525.30
South-West6.6959.727,29820.39
Other votes8.3549.959,64326.94
Two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian state election.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.