ALP 6.7%
Incumbent MP
Ben Hardman, since 1999.
Geography
Northern Victoria. Seymour covers regional areas to the north of Melbourne, including Mitchell Shire and parts of the Murrindindi, Nillumbik and Yarra Ranges council areas. Seymour includes the towns of Alexandra, Healesville, Kinglake, Marysville, Seymour and Yea.
History
Seymour was first created as an electoral district in 1992. It was won in 1992 by Marie Tehan. She had served as a Liberal Member of the Legislative Council for Central Highlands province since 1987. She served as a minister in the Kennett government until her retirement in 1999.
In 1999, the ALP’s Ben Hardman won Seymour by a narrow margin. He was re-elected with a 9.5% margin in 2002 and again re-elected in 2006 with a slightly smaller margin.
Candidates
- Huw Slater (Greens)
- Ben Hardman (Labor)
- Jan Beer (Independent)
- Cindy McLeish (Liberal)
- Adam Taurian (Country Alliance)
- Anthony Rolando (Nationals)
- Robert Guerra (Family First)
Political situation
Seymour is a typically marginal area on both a federal and state level. Despite a substantial Labor margin, the seat could be a close contest.
2006 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ben Hardman | ALP | 15,987 | 46.42 | -6.05 |
| Mike Dalmau | LIB | 13,237 | 38.43 | +0.63 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | GRN | 3,213 | 9.33 | -0.40 |
| Josh Dolan | FF | 1,148 | 3.33 | +3.33 |
| Robert Gordon | PP | 858 | 2.49 | +2.49 |
2006 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ben Hardman | ALP | 19,517 | 56.66 | -2.83 |
| Mike Dalman | LIB | 14,926 | 43.34 | +2.83 |
Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Seymour have been divided into three areas. Those in Mitchell council area have been grouped as “West”, those in Murrindindi as “East”, and those in Nillumbik and Yarra Ranges as “South”.
The ALP polled over 60% in the west of the seat, but a smaller 52-53% margin in the south and east. The Greens polled over 15% in the south, compared to barely 6% in the west.
Polling booths in Seymour at the 2006 state election. West in yellow, East in green, South in blue.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 6.19 | 60.24 | 14,292 | 41.53 |
| South | 15.43 | 53.42 | 6,838 | 19.87 |
| East | 9.39 | 52.59 | 5,959 | 17.31 |
| Other votes | 9.71 | 56.74 | 7,328 | 21.29 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Seymour at the 2006 state election.
The Liberals had a late change of candidate here, with the original candidate, Mike Laker, withdrawing for ‘personal reasons’ after it had been alleged that he’d been telling voters that Somali refugees would be moving into public housing in the area and were being given free cars:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/libs-candidate-quits-ahead-of-vic-election-20101031-178rg.html
Jan Beer is a campaigner against the controversial north-south water pipeline, which traverses this electorate and is presumably a key local issue.
Also of significance of course is that this electorate contains many of the areas hardest hit by the Black Saturday bushfires.
Yep, I’d have thought the Liberals would have been a big chance here given the local issues working against Labor. With their candidate problems they may have thrown away a potential gain.
You can clearly see the difference between Mitchell Shire (more urbanised, lots of towns, being gradually drawn into Melbourne’s commuter belt) and the more clearly rural areas to the east.
Entertaining examination of the contest in last week’s National Interest: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2010/3071265.htm
It’s a good listen.
I visited Kinglake a couple of months ago as I had some time to kill before a flight back to Sydney. It looks alien with leaves sprouting from tree trunks. Grand Designs Australia’s first episode was on a house in Kinglake rebuilt after the bushfires as well, also worth downloading.