Prosser – Tasmania LC 2018

Incumbent MLC
Prosser is a new seat with no incumbent MLC. Greg Hall, the former member for Western Tiers, will be finishing his term at this election, but his existing electorate has practically no overlap with the new seat.

Geography
South-eastern Tasmania. Prosser covers the entirety of the Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Southern Midlands and Tasman council areas, most of Sorell council area and parts of Brighton and Northern Midlands councils. The main towns are Sorell, Dodges Ferry, Brighton, Bagdad, Swansea and Triabunna.

Redistribution
Prosser is a new seat. About 44% of the seat’s population comes from the former south-eastern seat of Rumney, which has shrunk into the eastern suburbs of Hobart. 40% comes from the east coast seat of Apsley, the remainder of which has been incorporated with parts of Western Tiers into the new seat of McIntyre. About 16% of the population come from the seat of Derwent, with a handful of voters coming from Western Tiers.

History
Prosser is a new seat.

Candidates

  • Jo Bain
  • Lorraine Bennett (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Colin Harriss (Tasmanians 4 Tasmania)
  • Jane Howlett (Liberal)
  • Janet Lambert (Labor)
  • Steve Mav
  • Tony Mulder
  • Doug Parkinson
  • Kim Peart
  • Jim Playsted
  • Kelly Spaulding
  • John The Duke of Avram
  • Scott Wiggins

Assessment
This open seat could conceivably go in any number of directions.

Booth breakdown
There is no previous election result for this electorate, so I have broken down the votes cast in the electorate at the recent House of Assembly election by local government areas, summing up the total vote for Labor, Greens and Liberal in this electorate. The following map shows the number of votes cast at each booth.

About one third of the seat’s population is in the Sorell council area, with about one sixth each in Brighton, Glamorgan/Spring Bay and Southern Midlands.

The Liberal Party’s vote in 2018 ranged from under 40% in Sorell and Tasman to over 50% in Glamorgan/Spring Bay and Southern Midlands.

The Labor vote ranged from under 30% in Glamorgan/Spring Bay to over 40% in Sorell.

Voter groupGreens %Labor %Liberal %Total votes% of votes
Sorell8.144.339.75,64634.9
Brighton3.239.548.42,86417.7
Southern Midlands3.832.851.52,84217.6
Glamorgan/Spring Bay9.828.353.32,76017.1
Tasman14.239.737.51,0926.7
Northern Midlands3.633.649.19796.0