Franklin – Tasmania 2014

Incumbent MPs

  • Lara Giddings (ALP), since 2002. Previously Member for Franklin 1996-1998.
  • Will Hodgman (LIB), since 2002.
  • Nick McKim (GRN), since 2002.
  • David O’Byrne (ALP), since 2010.
  • Jacquie Petrusma (LIB), since 2010.

Geography
Franklin covers the southern parts of Tasmania and the outskirts of Hobart. The seat is divided into two parts, with each covering half of the voters in the electorate. Half live on the eastern shore of the Derwent River in Clarence and Brighton LGAs, while the other half lives to the south and west of Hobart in Kingborough and Huon Valley LGAs.

History
Franklin was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Franklin has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.

Six-member electorates tended to result in 3-3 splits between the major parties, even when one party received substantially more votes than the other party, producing many hung parliaments and slim majorities.

The ALP didn’t manage to win a majority of Franklin’s seats for almost thirty years. The Anti-Socialist Party won a 4-2 majority in 1909, and then the ALP and the Liberal/Nationalist party each won 3 seats at the 1912, 1913, 1916 and 1919.

The Country Party contested the Tasmanian election in 1922, the only time the party won seats in the House of Assembly. They won five seats, including one in Franklin, which they took from the ALP, while the Nationalists held their three seats and the ALP two.

The Lyons Labor government won a majority in the 1925 election, including three seats in Franklin, while the Liberals were reduced to one seat, alongside two independents.

The 1928 election saw the Nationalists win three seats in every district, and the ALP won three seats in all other districts. The only exception was Franklin, where the ALP lost their third seat to an independent, producing a 15-14-1 breakdown in the House of Assembly.

The 1931 election saw Franklin’s numbers maintained, while the Nationalists won a fourth seat at the expense of the ALP in every other district.

The 3-2-1 split was reversed in 1934, with the ALP winning back a third seat off the Nationalists. The ALP finally won a 4-2 majority in Franklin in 1937, and again in 1941, although the fourth ALP seat was lost to an independent at the 1946 and 1948 elections.

Franklin elected three Liberals and three Labor MPs at the 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections, which led to the number of seats per district increased to seven in 1959, allowing for more decisive results.

The Liberal Party won a fourth seat at the 1959 election, with the ALP maintaining their three seats. The ALP won a 4-3 majority at the 1964, 1969, 1972, 1976 and 1979 elections.

At the 1982 election, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won three seats. The seventh seat was held by former Labor premier Doug Lowe, who had moved to the crossbenches upon his removal as Premier in 1981.

The 1986 election saw the ALP lose their third seat for the first time since 1931. The Liberal Party won four seats and the ALP two. The seventh seat was won by Green independent Gerry Bates, who joined Bob Brown in Denison.

The 1989 election saw the ALP win back its third seat off the Liberal Party and Bates re-elected, producing a 3-3-1 split, which was maintained in 1992. In 1996 the ALP and the Greens maintained their seats, but the Liberal Party lost their third seat to Bruce Goodluck, a former Liberal federal MP for Franklin from 1975 to 1993. Goodluck won a seat in the state parliament as an independent.

The size of the House of Assembly was cut to twenty-five, and two of Franklin’s seats were abolished. Greens MP Mike Foley lost his seat and independent Bruce Goodluck retired, while the major parties retained their seats; three for the ALP and two for the Liberal Party.

At the 2002 election, the Liberal Party lost one of their two seats to the Greens, with Franklin electing three Labor MPs along with new MPs Will Hodgman (LIB) and Nick McKim (GRN), both of whom now lead their parties.

At the 2006 election, the numbers were maintained at 3-1-1. Nick McKim was reelected comfortably with just short of a quota, while Hodgman and then-Premier Paul Lennon each won quotas in their own right. Lara Giddings (ALP) was also re-elected, and Paula Wreidt squeezed in to the last seat, beating Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin by about 1000 votes.

At the 2010 election, the ALP lost its third seat to the Liberal Party. Three MPs (Giddings, Hodgman and McKim) were re-elected. The other two seats were held by Labor MPs who had filled casual vacancies in the previous term and had never won election in their own right. Both Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme lost their seats, to the ALP’s David O’Byrne and the Liberal Party’s Jacquie Petrusma.

Candidates

  • Socialist Alliance – Group A
    • Jenny Forward
  • Australian Labor Party – Group B
    • Heather Chong
    • Julie Dick
    • Lara Giddings*
    • Russell Mitchell
    • David O’Byrne*
  • Liberal Party – Group C
    • Sue Bastone
    • Paul Harriss
    • Will Hodgman*
    • Jacquie Petrusma*
    • Nic Street
  • Tasmanian Greens – Group D
    • Richard Atkinson
    • Simon Burnett
    • Zoe Kean
    • Nick McKim*
    • Rosalie Woodruff
  • National Party – Group E
    • Matt Holloway
    • Penny Lane
    • Myrtle Wakeling
  • Palmer United Party – Group F
    • Michael Figg
    • John Peers
    • Luke Rutherford
    • Con Spiliopoulos
    • Debra Thurley

Assessment
The Liberal Party will be aiming to gain a seat in Franklin in 2014. With 2.56 quotas in 2010, the Liberal Party could win a third seat with a modest swing. The Tasmanian Greens would need to suffer a massive swing to lose a seat, but the ALP will struggle to maintain its two seats.

2006 result

CandidateVotes%Quota
Deborah Brewer4780.750.05
Adam Burling4950.770.05
Mark Harrison4590.720.04
Wendy Heatley6210.970.06
Nick Mckim15,46224.141.50
Tasmanian Greens17,51527.351.70
Jenny Forward2810.440.03
Socialist Alliance2810.440.03
Ross Butler1,8542.890.18
Kate Churchill9641.510.09
Lara Giddings9,64815.060.94
Daniel Hulme2,2143.460.21
David O’Byrne4,8467.570.47
Australian Labor Party19,52630.491.89
David Compton5760.900.06
Will Hodgman20,30231.701.97
Jillian Law8841.380.09
Tony Mulder2,1063.290.20
Jacquie Petrusma2,5003.900.24
Liberal Party26,36841.172.56
John Forster3550.550.03
Polling places in Franklin at the 2010 state election. Clarence in orange, Huon Valley in blue, Kingsborough in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Franklin at the 2010 state election. Clarence in orange, Huon Valley in blue, Kingsborough in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Bass covers part or all of three local council areas.  Polling places have been divided between these three local government areas: Clarence, in the eastern suburbs of Hobart, Kingsborough south of Hobart, and Huon Valley to the west of Hobart.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in all three areas, ranging from 38.9% in Huon Valley to 42.7% in Kingsborough. The ALP vote ranged from 32.7% in Clarence to 25.5% in Kingsborough. The ALP came second in two areas, with the Greens outpolling Labor in Kingsborough, with 30.8%. The Greens vote bottomed out at 25.3% in Clarence.

Voter groupLIB %ALP %GRN %Total votes% of votes
Clarence41.1332.7325.3028,35744.28
Kingsborough42.6725.5230.8014,79623.10
Huon Valley38.6730.9129.177,56611.81
Other votes41.0030.9826.8313,32620.81
Liberal primary votes in Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in the Clarence part of Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in the Clarence part of Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in the Clarence part of Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in the Clarence part of Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in the Clarence part of Franklin at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in the Clarence part of Franklin at the 2010 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. I find this one hard to pick – probably status quo, unless either Lara Giddings or David O’Byrne should be less popular than they seemed in 2010.

Comments are closed.