Comments on: South Australia 2010

By: Tony

Tony — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 03:35:25 +0000

The 11th seat could be any number of parties even a lib.
If you change the figures ever so lightly you can come up with winderlich 10 and DLP 11.
So the first 9 look good. Its the last two that will be the big question.
I dont think we’ll know or even have an idea until much later on Saturday night.

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:54:37 +0000

Antony Greens SA LC calculator up.

I’ve got 4 Labor, 4 Lib, 1 Green, FF and Dignity for Disabled (the last off an estimate 1.3%).

http://www2b.abc.net.au/elections/view/senatecalculator.aspx?e=3&ca=lc

By: Imaginative Nickname

Imaginative Nickname — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 01:12:37 +0000

Tony,

The Libs want to punish the nats for Karlene joining the ministry.

By: Tony

Tony — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 23:05:01 +0000

The Liberals may have done some odd deals here.

Preferences Candidate Party
1 RIDGWAY, David Liberal Party
2 WADE, Stephen Liberal Party
3 STEPHENS, Terry Liberal Party
4 LEE, Jing Liberal Party
5 BOURAS, Rita Liberal Party
6 SALU, Peter Liberal Party
7 JARED, Sarah Liberal Party
8 BROKENSHIRE, Robert Family First
9 RANDALL, Bob Family First
10 TURNBULL, Toni Family First
11 KATSAROS, Jim Save RAH
12 TAPLIN, Mark Save RAH
13 ROLLOND, Ken Save RAH
14 McGOWAN, David Save RAH
15 KARGIOTIS, George Fair Land Tax
16 HARALAMPOPOULOS, Andrew Fair Land Tax
17 COLLIER, Paul Dignity For Disability
18 VINCENT, Kelly Dignity For Disability
19 THREDGOLD, Michele Dignity For Disability
20 WOOD, Ronni (Veronica) Dignity For Disability
21 RUSSELL, Paul Democratic Labor Party
22 McCABE, David Democratic Labor Party
23 HUDSON, Michael T Shooters Party
24 THIELE, Deb The Nationals
25 WEBBER, Kym The Nationals

There’s a swage of parties before the DLP or Nationals with the Nats coming in after the shooters ?

Strange indeed.
On the shooters list they have placed FF ahead of the DLP and One Nation. Another strange move in SA.

By: Independently Thinking

Independently Thinking — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:24:27 +0000

The ALP have no hope of getting up a 5th candidate in the LC. I belive it will go on primaroes: LIB 4 ALP 4 (just) Green 1 (just) and then FF on prefs from Trevor Grace and a host of other conservative Christians. The 11th seat will come down to whomever can get enough of the prefs from the elected candidates, and can get enough primaries and prefs to stay in the count before being eliminated. I think in the mix from the Left-ish: Dems, Gamers & Winderlich, from the right-ish: Libs, DLP and thanks to their spot on the ticket and some nifty prefence work, the Climate Sceptics.

By: Tony

Tony — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 22:57:16 +0000

No I think we’ve see the last of Democrats.

The more minor parties the better but their vote is continuing to fall and they have certainly lost their positon of being a centrist party. Like their ex leader Andrew Bartlett most have ended up in the green camp

Best of luck and no doubt we’ll see in the preference flow to other centrist parties like the DLP on whether they hold a place anymore.
If the flow is going to the green then why would people choose the Dem over the green ?

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 03:27:52 +0000

SOS, I don’t mean to rain on your parade, but I doubt it. Good luck to the Dems, but the polls show that they will struggle. A quota is 8.33% which is quite hard to get for a minor party. I suspect that Hamish Vettice is correct with his 4,4,1,1 prediction and one last seat to be a dog fight – I’ll tip it for Labor, but an outsider such as a Save the Hospital candidate or a surprise (maybe a Dem?) isn’t impossible.

By: Sick Of Spin

Sick Of Spin — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 15:01:04 +0000

Watch out for the democrats. With a new team of 3 candidates running for the upper house they have a great chance of regaining a seat in their own right maybe 2? They will probably take a large portion of the Mr X vote this election. An exciting election ahead.

By: Tony

Tony — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 01:42:48 +0000

Imaginative Nickname
Posted February 15, 2010 at 12:25 PM
Tony,
Family First will outpoll the DLP are very likely to be elected to an upper house seat in SA. I can not see SA electing a second christian party in this or at any future election.

The word in SA is that Family First have lifted their profile and are polling 5% with some areas as high as 10%. This should enable them to take a seat in their own right (8th).
Providing the liberals go to the DLP ahead of anyone else the overflow from FF and the Liberals, plus a good preference flow upwards should see the DLP in line for seat no 11.

I’ve heard the DLP will be looking to add a few more candidates this week to bolster their chances, including two women candidates.

By: Imaginative Nickname

Imaginative Nickname — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 02:25:49 +0000

Tony,

Family First will outpoll the DLP are very likely to be elected to an upper house seat in SA. I can not see SA electing a second christian party in this or at any future election.