Dunstan – SA 2018

LIB 3.9%

Incumbent MP
Steven Marshall, since 2014. Previously Member for Norwood 2010-2014.

Geography
Eastern suburbs. Dunstan covers the suburbs of College Park, Evandale, Firle, Hackney, Joslin, Kent Town, Marden, Maylands, Payneham South, Royston Park, St Morris, St Peters, Stepney, Trinity Gardens, Dulwich and Glynde. Most of the electorate lies in the Norwood Payneham and St Peters council area.

Redistribution
Dunstan lost Klemzig and Vale Park to Torrens and also lost Beulah Park and Kensington to Bragg, and then gained Dulwich from Bragg and Glynde from Hartley.

History
The electorate of Norwood was first created at the 1938 election. For most of that period, the seat has been held by the ALP. The Liberal Party has won the seat at only six elections, and the current member is the first Liberal to win the seat at multiple elections. Norwood was renamed Dunstan in 2014.

From 1938 to 1953, the ALP’s Frank Nieass and the Liberal and Country League’s Albert Moir alternated in the seat, switching back and forth over four terms.

In 1953, Moir was replaced by the ALP’s Don Dunstan. Dunstan served as Deputy Premier from 1965 to 1967, and then as Premier from 1967 to 1968 and from 1970 to 1979, when he retired from Parliament.

The ALP’s Greg Crafter won the March 1979 Norwood by-election. He lost the seat at the September 1979 general election to the Liberal Party’s Frank Webster.

That result was invalidated in court, and Crafter won the seat back at a 1980 by-election.

Crafter held the seat throughout the 1980s, until the 1993 election.

In 1993, the Liberal Party’s John Cummins won the seat, and held it until 1997.

Vini Ciccarello won Norwood back for the ALP in 1997. She was re-elected in 2002 and 2006.

The Liberal Party’s Steven Marshall won the seat at the 2010 election off Ciccarello.

Marshall was promoted to the Liberal Party frontbench in December 2011. In October 2012, he was elected deputy leader as part of a challenge to Liberal leader Isobel Redmond.

Redmond resigned in January 2013, and in February Marshall was elected as Liberal leader. Marshall led the Liberal Party to the 2014 election, winning re-election in his renamed seat of Dunstan. Marshall’s party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote, but failed to form government in a hung parliament.

Candidates

Assessment
As the Liberal leader’s seat, Dunstan will likely stay in Liberal hands, but it’s not particularly safe.

2014 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steven Marshall Liberal 10,978 50.0 +3.7 51.4
Jo Chapley Labor 7,881 35.9 +2.1 34.7
Michael Donato Greens 2,465 11.2 -0.5 11.3
Rick Neagle Dignity for Disability 624 2.8 +1.0 2.2
Family First 0.4
Informal 494 2.2

2014 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steven Marshall Liberal 11,656 53.1 -1.7 53.9
Jo Chapley Labor 10,292 46.9 +1.7 46.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Dunstan have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 57% in the south and 57.4% in the north-west, while Labor managed 51.2% in the north-east. The Greens polled 10% or higher in all three areas.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 12.4 57.0 6,778 29.7
North-East 10.6 48.8 6,527 28.6
North-West 10.0 57.4 3,717 16.3
Other votes 11.8 56.4 5,778 25.3

Election results in Dunstan at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

3 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Likely Liberal hold, although expect this to remain a key marginal for the forseeable future. Should Marshall retire from Parliament if he doesn’t become Premier, this could be a Labor gain at a by-election – Labor held Norwood (Dunstan’s name pre-2014) more often than not prior to 2010, and was held for many years by Premier Don Dunstan (1967/68, 1970-79).

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here